thats very true if it were a mets-astros deal....but apparently the rumor is that the A's would be getting burke in a 3 way
I'd think Burke's value as a prospect was cemented the moment Billy Beane expressed interest in him. Here's hoping the deal falls through.
on the flip side, him wanting to deal byrnes before he has a monster season and asks for a ton of money is a thought too....maybe we should ax the mets out of the equation
Like Kirk Saarloos? I'm not a Burke detractor, I'm alright with him starting at 2B- but I don't make Beane to be a juggernaut of a GM.
One thing we got to understand is the managment and scouts at the Astros know a lot more about Burke than we do. Maybe they see that he isn't going to be al that we think and want to get the most value. We know he is a prospect but he had all of 17 at bats last year and we barely saw him. Unless some of us have seen him play in the minor leagues we don't know a thing about him.
Agreed. He's certainly not an imbecile, but I don't think he's way ahead of the field. We can talk all day about OPS, OBP, etc. but it's awful nice to have Mulder, Zito, and Hudson.
Considering we got Chad Harville in that deal, Oakland broke even in that trade. Garbage in, garbage out. If that's the worst decision you can pin on Beane, an even trade, then he's GM of the century.
Justice is on 610 right now...take that for what you will. He says: the astros are very interested in cameron. but cameron's only about 65% right now. has injured right wrist and still hasn't taken batting practice. says people believe he's better defensively than beltran. lance is saying, "i don't understand how this guy is the 'real deal.' he's a .240 hitter." Justice was all over that saying he saves runs by being a great defensive CFer. says the Mets really want late-inning pitching, but the Astros don't have it to offer.
think they'd take Franco? If Cameron is going to miss a month, like it has been predicted, I'm off that train. If he is on target to take BP March 1...and will be back for the season opener, I think he could help us. However, if it only costs us a mediocre mifddle relief guy or a mid level prospect, I'd take him even with the injury....because we wont be risking anything to add him to our lineup when he is healthy....and having a healthy lance, a healthy cameron and lane might not be terrible.
Why, if you're dealing Burke away, would you not at least take Byrnes? He's younger, a better hitter, and a better defender than Cameron. He plays all-out is also much cheaper than Cam.
Well, depends on your interpretation. He drew alot of acclaim last year for his glove. Made alot of diving, sportscenter-type plays. I think he's a better LF than Cameron is a CF, at least based on last year's production. But, CF is a more difficult defensive position. In LF or RF, I'd want Byrnes. In CF, Cameron.
Eric Byrnes is not a better center field defender than Mike Cameron, not even close. The whole reason Byrnes isn't the better fit for us is his defense does not rival Cameron's in CF. Mike Cameron has had a better defensive value rating than Torii Hunter since 2002 while Byrnes has spent the majority of his defensive career as a solid corner outfielder. In fact the only time Byrnes got more than 33 games at CF(in 2003) he was slightly below average(with a rate of 100 being average). http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/byrneer01.shtml http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/camermi01.shtml http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/hunteto01.shtml In fact, Cameron falls right in the class of defensive centerfielders with Carlos Beltran and Johnny Damon, behind Edmonds and Andruw Jones. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/beltrca01.shtml http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/damonjo01.shtml Furthermore, Byrnes bat is substantially overrated. Byrnes hit righties to the tune of a .741 OPS last year in 412 AB's, and the year before hit them at a .752 OPS in 267 AB's. Oh, and btw his OBP against righties has been .329 in 2003 and .324 last year: ie not good. Sure, he hits LHP very well(1.004 OPS last year, .864 OPS in 2003) , but considering how small a percentage of his at bats would come against southpaws, his offensive advantage at best is minimal. Also, last time I checked "playing balls to the wall" was not a significant reason to trade for any player. It is an endearing quality for fans and teams though, i'll admit. Lastly, according to what has been reported in the last few days, Mike Cameron has two years 12 million left on his deal with 2 mil of that deferred money. That means for he costs 5 mil per year for 2 years(and buys time for Taveras to develop). That is highly reasonable for a CF of his caliber. The money difference is the biggest advantage Byrnes has going for him besides age, but the thing is neither of those outweigh the benefit of having Mike Cameron(provided you trust his health) patrol centerfield for the Astros in the near future. If we were discussing a need at corner outfield, it would because Cameron's value decreases in that scenario. The bottom line is that Eric Byrnes is not a better fit at centerfield for the Astros than Mike Cameron, and since they need a really good defensive CF, it makes no sense to value Byrnes over Cameron(if you trust his health). This is not to say I don't like the way Byrnes plays, it's to say Cameron's defensive prowess in CF outweighs the minimal offensive difference between the two players. Therefore, I can completely understand why they want Cameron in this 3 team deal.
DV, I appreciate your analysis, but I never said that Byrnes was a better CF. I believe that (a) Cameron's a broken down player whose range and arm post-injury make him better suited for a corner OF spot, as sometimes happens to older players, and (b) that as a corner OF Byrnes has more value defensively and offensively. Byrnes' lower salary also leaves more payroll flexibility to add a veteran bat next offseason, or in a mid-season trade. And he's a guy who could still be here 3 or 4 years from now, unlike Cameron who appears to be in decline. If you think Cameron's going to be an A+ defensive CF, then I can see your point. I just think he'll be closer to Biggio or Berkman in CF than to Beltran.
