http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=221767&highlight=electric http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=168418&highlight=electric&page=6 Two good threads with the info. you might need.
ERCOT's going to raise the cap on wholesale prices from $3,000/MWh to $4,500/MWh in an attempt to get energy companies to build new generation. It'll probably go up higher in later years. You won't see the impact on consumer prices, because the wholesale price only hits the cap for maybe a few hours in some parts of the state. And, that's the real-time market, when most retailers will have bought most of their load in advance. But, what it will do is increase the risk of operating as a retailer and increase the chance of a severe weather event running up the cost of serving customers to the point where retailers go out of business. We had 6 go down this way in the summer of 2008. It's an environment that would favor the big companies that have the balance sheet to sustain short-term losses and the vertically-integrated companies (who are also big) that would be making money as a generator selling at $4,500/MWh at the same time they're losing money as a retailer. So, I expect we'll start seeing some consolidation (which is long overdue anyway) in electric retailers, fatter margins for the remaining players (to compensate for the risk), somewhat higher prices for consumers, and more generation to keep ERCOT stable. Enjoy the cheap fly-by-night REPs while you can!
