Interested to get everyone's opinions on who, of the current roster, will be around when the Astros are able to compete for a championship again. Obviously we have a tiny sample size from this year, but from what we have seen so far here is my analysis Everyday Players C - Jason Castro. For a guy that isn't a great defensive catcher, I just don't see the hitting ability for him to be a regular on a winning team. I think he could be a good backup on a winner. Chance of being a regular on a contender, <10%. Chance of being an all-star 0% 1B - Wallace 0% chance of helping. Pena 0% chance of helping/being around. Would be nice if Pena got hot and was a trade piece, but certainly haven't seen anything so far . . .this position is all about Singleton 2B - Altuve. This guy has hit EVERYWHERE he has ever been. Thinking of him as anything other than a building block blows my mind. Chance of him being a regular on a contender, 95%. Chance of him being an all-star (and not because we have to have one) on a fairly regular basis, >60% 3B - Dominguez. Great glove that could play well if the offense around him is outstanding. He is also only 23 years old and was brought up by the Marlins before he was ready. Power potential is there. If he could hit .245 with 25 HR he could be the 3b of the future. Very low offensive floor though. Chance of being a regular on a contender, <30%. Chance of being a legitimate all-star, <5% SS - Marwin Gonzalez. Could be a good utility guy on a contender. Chance of being a regular on a contender <10% OF - Maxwell. Good defensive OF, but OF that hit below .250 just don't get it done unless they are hitting 30-35+ HR. He is off to a great start, but I see Maxwell as more of a very good 4th OF, could fill in nicely for injuries during the year, play a couple of days a week otherwise. Chance of being a regular on a contender <20%. Chance of being an all-star level player <10% (only because I do think the power/speed combo makes it possible if unlikely) OF - JD Martinez. I give him about a 10% chance of being a regular on a contender. He has to be a hitter to contribute because his defense is well below average. He has shown flashes of being a big league hitter, but much more he looks like a really good AAAA type of guy. Also a guy who will either make it or he won't, I don't see JD as a guy who could make it as a 4th OF and pinch hitter type. DH - Chris Carter. I put him in this slot because A) I think he makes it..B) I see Singleton as our 1b . .and C) I think we will have better defensive options once we are ready to compete. I do like his bat and especially how it could play long term in MMP. He is a guy who obviously will strike out alot, but in a couple of years if he is surrounded by guys who don't strike out a lot, I could see him as a .260 hitter with 30+ HR playing at the Juice Box. Chances of being a regular on a contender, >70%. Chance of being an all-star, >20% I see no other offensive player having any possible impact on our future. Pitching Bud . . .how good can he be?? What are the chances he is an Astro in July?? Obviously he has the "stuff" to be a top of the rotation guy, a good #2 type. Here is the deal though, the more consistent he is this year the more likely he gets moved. I do like what i've seen from him and he sure seems to be maturing. Chances of being a mid-rotation starter on a contender >70%, chances of that team being the Astros <25% Harrell . . .good solid starter for a poor team. Could be a #4 on a true contender maybe, more likely a #5 type. Best case senario, in my opinion, for the Astros is he has a good first half and we move him for a high ceiling, low floor prospect and hope to hit a HR Peacock . . .I like this guy, I think he could end up being a gem. Many forget he was a highly rated prospect just last year. I think he is the most likely guy on our current roster to be a member of our staff when we next contend. Chances of being a mid rotation starter on a contender, 50% Bedard and Humber . . .possible trade bait, nothing more Clemens . . .has not reached potential, by all accounts he is his own worst enemy . .seems tough though, and has good stuff . .more likely to end up as a middle reliever as he is now, but I give him a 10% chance of being a mid rotation guy on a contender So of our 25 man roster, I think Altuve, Carter, Bud and Peacock are the only ones with a better than 50% chance of being key starters on our next contender, although I do think Maxwell and Marwin could be key bench guys. What think you?
I'm not sure I see Matt Dominguez ever hitting 25 homeruns. Also predraft, wasnt Castro considered to be a great defender? I guess the injury hurt his defense
Castro and Maxwell are ML starters. Maxwell is actually a very good starter. I don't know where you got Castro being a bad defensive catcher. In 3 seasons he's caught 26% of base stealers, lg avg is 27%. The average OPS for a catcher is only about .725, his OPS last year was .735, and i expect him to improve upon that by years end. Nothing spectacular but he could very easily start for a contender Maxwell plays spectacular defense, not just good. BA is an insignificant number. As long as he can keep his OBP over .300 with his power and defense he is a very good starter.
OF - Maxwell. Good defensive OF, but OF that hit below .250 just don't get it done unless they are hitting 30-35+ HR. He is off to a great start, but I see Maxwell as more of a very good 4th OF, could fill in nicely for injuries during the year, play a couple of days a week otherwise. Maxwell is a CF. Teams usually trade offense for defense in CF. Maxwell's offense is reasonable for his position.
I think that is a fair assessment. Only 3 or 4 guys from this team will be around in three years when hopefully the Astros are contending. The number does grow if some of the top prospects fizzle out. If Springer fizzles out, Maxwell could still be here. If DDJ fizzles out, Altuve could still be here. If the top prospects do plan out in three years, 1B Singleton 2B DDJ SS Correa CF Springer RF Santana From the current roster that leaves openings for C Castro 3B Dominguez DH Carter Like you said this year's trade-bait-lottery-signings, Bedard and Humber, will be lucky to be on the team past mid-season, much less the end of season. The other three, Norris, Harrell and Peacock, appear to have the talent to stick on the roster for the next three years, as long as they do not get hurt or traded. I'm in the There-Is-No-Such-Thing-As-A-Prospect-Pitcher camp. Thus, I have no projections which if any of the farm pitching prospects can be established MLB starters in three years.
C- Jason Castro has a chance to be the best Astros catcher of all-time. He's been solid throughout his minor league career, and had a good 1st full season last year, especially coming off knee surgery. 2B - The amount you underate Castro is the same amount you overrate Jose Altuve. Altuve is all about hits. His speed isn't great, his defensive range is decreased due to his size. He doesn't walk a lot and doesn't have much power. Both are likely regular major leaguers, with Altuve being more proven. Both play historically weak offensive positions, which is to their advantage. 1B - Yeah, we are just waiting for Singleton SS - Marwin could be a ML regular, because SS is a premium position. I agree most likely a good utility player, as he sucks hitting from the right side. 3B - Dominguez is a potential regular, but probably around the level of Pedro Feliz. CF - Maxwell is a 4th OF for me as well, but if he keeps the K-rate down like he has this season (21%), he'll be a ML regular. LF - JD I've given up hope for the most part. I think they should play him the remainder of the season, especially against lefties, and that way we can be sure whether or not to move on. RF - Waiting for Fernando to get on the field for a few months. SP - Bud is at best a #3 guy, and more likely filling the 4th or 5th spots on a good team. SP - Harrell is similar to Bud SP - Peacock is Bud, with higher potential SP - Clemens I am a big fan of. Not sure whether it will be in the rotation or the pen, but I think this guy will be a solid pitcher.
I hope yall are right about Castro, if he does prove to be an above average regular for a catcher, that is a really big piece to the puzzle Juicy - I disagree on Altuve. Yes his best attribute is "hits" and you wouldn't want a whole lineup of him, but he could be an outstanding two hole hitter in a good lineup. Last year he was 8th among all mlb 2b in OPS at .740, so far this year he is 7th in OPS among all 2b at .868, and he is still just 22 years old. If Deshields develops as we all hope, I hope he ends up in CF with springer in RF and Altuve at 2b.
Average is the hardest thing to maintain. He got of to a hot start last year, just like this season, but he tailed off. He may manage to be one of those guys that does hit for great averages. He may be the Tony Gwynn of 2B. I don't know, I'm just tempering my expectations.
I agree average is the toughest stat to keep consistent. But as I say, he was a top 10 OPS 2b as a 21 year old, and improved that in a very small sample size this year at age 22. I think that says a lot
http://www.rantsports.com/mlb/2013/06/04/houston-astros-chris-carter-is-not-the-same-hitter-at-home/ At home, Carter has a batting slash line (BA/OBP/SLG) of .169/.236/.319with four home runs and 12 RBI. That’s pretty terrible, but remember, I said he was a different hitter on the road. In fact, he’s been a monster. His road slash line is .289/.369/.567 with eight home runs and 20 RBI. Those are stats no one would mind having. He and Norris are polar opposites.
With this brought back up, I would stand by my original post with the exception of Castro. I think I was wrong on him. He has always started slow at a new level and then figured it out. I did not value him enough, not saying he is the "real deal" but he definitely has the potential to be an above average catcher.
