Yeah, I think with continued heightened awareness in our population and our advanced medical system and protocols that what we'll see from here and in the future are little outbreaks popping up from time to time, but they will be ultimately contained and managed. Given that, I think for most of us the economic fallout will end up being the thing to be far more concerned about.
Global media panic and hysteria have a lot of negatives with news stories like this. Stock markets flop around, people shut down events, everybody goes out and buys Lysol, people get nervous, etc. The positive effect: People start being smarter about things. Don't go to work if you're sick, don't get on a plane to an area that has a lot of cases, wash your hands all the time, money gets spent to fast track vaccines... So hysteria and 24-hour media cycles, and Twitter, and rumors, etc. are bad in general...I think the panic helps it from spreading more than in the past. Your 401K and stock accounts will take a hit, but hopefully it doesn't put us in a mini-recession. Perhaps it'll be a "buying opportunity" when its all said and done.
Thank you for your perspective. Singapore weather : Night 25 C Day 33 C This time last month, Australia seemed to have lost control. They have many chinese tourists, hundred of thousands of chinese students who many had recently returned from China. Even a confirmed case in a chinese group of tourists from Hubei who travelled all over the Golden coast taking many domestic flights. They couldn't trace the chain of infections because there were too many contacts. All looked inevitable that they would have a seeding in their cities and a fulllblown epidemic. What happened? Nothing much. Only 23 cases. Sydney weather: Night 20 C Day 27 C Then Indonesia who has done nothing in containment, prevention or detecting contacts even when multiple infected tourists stayed all over Bali. Their healthcare system and their sincerity are not to be trusted much, however we at least know there isn't an outbreak of pneumonias or deaths in Bali. Bali weather : Night 25 C Day 32 C Thailand one of the most vulnerable countries because of their intraconnectivity with China and the thousands of Chinese tourists that were visiting there long after most other countries had enforced a travel ban. Taxi drivers , hoteliers and tour guides who went all over the place, were infected by tourists, Number of cases 42. Thailand weather : Night 26C Day 33 C But Wuhan weather : Night 8 C Day 16 C Seoul weather : Night 0 C Day 13 C Tokyo weather : Night 5 C Day 14 C Milano weather : Night 2 C Day 16 C Teheran weather : Night 6 C Day 13 C All major outbreaks are occuring in cold weather areas. Whereas in hot weather areas even when there is hardly any measures of containment the cases are very few. Well I guess this is very good news for you all. Houston weather : Night 8 C Day 22 C. Around the same as Sydney. You can be protected from an outbreak due to heat. (What kind of weather is that in February? Are you tropical?)
I’ll take this info. We’re sitting mid 70’s right now. It’ll probably get to 80 in March though we’ll likely sprinkle a couple chilly days in. It’s actually very pleasant right now. Sorry, in Celsius that’s low to mid 20’s I’d say.
My PhD friend responded: I think yes and yes. I think it could end up seasonal and never going away and a vaccine needed. I also definitely think other coronaviruses will spillover from animals into humans as will other types of viruses. We've been expecting this and are expecting more. We cant predict crossover and that's not what we predict with the flu. For the flu, it has a specific aspect that mutates quickly but in limited ways and we watch what circulates in australia to decide what we need in a vaccine here. It's a guess. An educated guess but a guess. The mutations required for spillover to humans in any virus group cant be anticipated because there are too many variables. What we can do is study animal viruses and say...you know what...we are encroaching on their territory now so let's see what viruses they might be able to give us if we bump into them. Or hey, people are hunting this in this place now, let's see what viruses they might encounter. If we sort of catalogue it that could help. But the better approach is to stop the processes that lead to spillover. To address those issues and come up with a solution.
In the southern US it's basically spring but up north there will be cool dry air through at least April.
Yes it's tropical and always hot in Singapore, and maybe that's a factor. However Hong Kong has around the same no. of cases as Singapore despite being much cooler. Taiwan has even less. Something all 3 have in common - after china they were the 2nd, 3rd and 5th hardest hit by Sars (another coronavirus), and have been more prepared due to it. https://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/2003_07_11/en/ With Indonesia, it's probably a matter of under testing/reporting. Symptoms are mild most of the time, making it hard to detect if you aren't looking for it. Looks like there was some mishandling in the US to start; but with its vast resources, I'm hopeful it will get ahead of this and get it under control.
This is conspiracy theory territory from me - 1 thing about Indonesia... eating bats is common there, from what I understand anecdotally from people I've met from Indonesia and China, a lot more common than in China. Maybe this coronavirus isn't so novel in Indonesia
Good news came out from a genetic study of the virus yesterday. It looks like this virus CANNOT reinfect someone and that the body will recognize it again if you come in contact with it again because the virus is relatively stable. Around the 4:10 mark of the video.
I hope you're right but... "On Wednesday, the Osaka prefectural government in Japan said a woman working as a tour-bus guide had tested positive for the coronavirus for a second time. This followed reports in China that discharged patients throughout the country were testing positive after their release from the hospital." "Experts say there are several ways discharged patients could fall ill with the virus again. Convalescing patients might not build up enough antibodies to develop immunity to SARS-CoV-2, and are being infected again. The virus also could be “biphasic”, meaning it lies dormant before creating new symptoms." https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-questions-in-containment-fight-idUSKCN20M124
This really scares me. As someone who deals with shingles often, the recurring rounds of biphasic viruses can be even worse than the initial infection. There is also the unknowns if this could have long term health effects.
It doesn't mean the colder you are the more cases you have. If there are proper prevention measures taken then you can limit the spread. But it seems that the hotter you are the less the virus can spread on its own without doing much. If all things being equal Bali who does ZERO to protect itself was next to Japan with 0 to 15 C how many cases they would have? About Indonesia and bats it is absolutely true and nothing conspirasy about it. I saw the videos and posted them in this thread. They treat beating and torturing live animals including dogs and cats like a touristic attraction. The bats is one of their specialities. They offer them live burned on a stick like a kebab. It is a shame if you ask me that these.. "humans" because of the heat may escape the disease while good people have already died.
There are too many recoveries. China has been keeping all recovered in isolation and kept testing them. If it was biphasic they would known by now. There also the possibillity that this woman has a compromised immunity system. One case is too few to make any conclusion whatsoever. Anything can happen with one based on idiosyncrasies. Science still haven't explained basic facts like the super spreaders i.e. Chances are that the peculiarity lies with HER rather than the virus as a whole.
Shingles for example, don't usually break out for decades after infection, I wouldn't be so sure that reoccurrence isn't possible, or if there are long term affects. HPV causing an increased risk for cancer in women comes to mind as well, I think it would be hard to know what this will cause long term for a while.
