I agree Judge isn't a great comparison from a performance standpoint but keep in Tucker is 26 going into his age 27 season and Judge signed his contract going into his age 31 season. Contracts are about future performance, not past performance. Barring major injury, if Tucker got an 8 year extension going into next season you'd get all of his physical prime and a few immediate post-prime years. Judge is getting paid for a lot of post-peak years. A $30m+ per year contract is reasonable but $40m per probably ain't.
Judge is better offensively, and came with a NY premium, but Tucker will hit FA 2 years younger. You are wrong that Judge is better defensively as they are pretty similar in that regard. We don't know what Tucker will do the next 2 years, but he's very similar to Judge 2018-2021. Judge was just unreal as a rookie and then last year.
Crane has never given out a long contract and Tucker ain't going to accept a short one. Crane has had a history of letting people walk.
To be fair, he’s done so when he had a farm ready to supply a reasonable substitute. He doesn’t have that for Tucker.
Exactly. Also, Correa was looking for more money than ANY team ended up being willing to give him plus we had Pena as a replacement. Springer didn't seem to have much interest in resigning here regardless IIRC plus he was already in his 30s. The only player that would have "made sense" to resign was Cole but I think anyone can agree giving that much for that long to a power pitcher is extremely risky.
Lets also keep in mind that all 3 (Springer, Correa and Cole) were directly dealing with the cheating scandal when it first came out. Cole left immediately after, Springer a year later and Correa 2 years later. Who knows how much of a factor that was on them to start over someplace else, but I'm sure that had some to do with it.
What was the reasonable substitute for Springer. It wasn't Straw and nobody that Chas was going to be this good. I'll believe it when I see it. He has 2 more years of finding a suitable substitute.
I am expecting Baez to need an additional year. 2024: a- high A 2025: AA 2026: AAA - MLB struggle/adjustment 2027: MLB ready. 2026 could be transitional season in OF w/ Chas, some % of Yordan starts, and a rotation of current AA/AAA guys filling it out. My current favorite for most PA among them is Barber.
I am expecting Baez to need an additional year. 2024: A- high A 2025: AA 2026: AAA - MLB struggle/adjustment 2027: MLB ready. 2026 could be transitional season in OF w/ Chas, some % of Yordan starts, and a rotation of current AA/AAA guys filling it out. My current favorite for most PA among them is Barber.
Crane would likely only be willing to afford buying 2 arb years and adding 6 on top. $10 and $20M for his arb years and then $30M for 6 would be $210M over 8 years, which is really more like a 6 year free agent deal similar to the Correa deal we offered. Averages out to $26.25M over 8 years.
But Tucker doesn't want to be a free agent at 35. It's either only 1 or 2 FA years, or it's 8+ nothing in between. And if it's only 1 or 2 then the FA years will be $30M each min, likely more because it's only prime years.
It would be logical that Tucker doesn’t want to be a FA at 35 as opposed to earlier. No reason to be so snippy about it. Of course, all we do is speculate here. It would be pretty boring if all we did was talk about what has already happened.
Ok. You got me, I am speculating. But I would bet everything I own on it. If he agrees to any contract that makes him a FA at 33-36 then he should fire his agent AND seek therapy. He has proven that he does not need to and if he does he is settling (and leaving millions on the table). He has shown so far that he is not interested in settling or else he would already he signed.