I am encouraged by Brown's recent comments about Tucker. Now is the time – actually 3 years ago was the time to extend Tucker. He is going to want to get a top 5 RF contract. The top 5 RF contracts= Betts, Harper, Stanton, Springer, and Bryant (I don’t count Tatis as he should be a SS) add up to $1,252M in 51 yrs or $26.5M per yr. They run on average through age 37 season. So for Tucker that would work out to be 9 years and $238.5M if they wait till FA If they sign him now, that's 11 yrs and $268.5M, if you figure $30M for his remaining 2 arb seasons. That drops AAV to $24.4M. I don't know is Astros do it, but I think thats what it will take. Who else deserves an extension, and what are your thoughts on how it affects the payroll?
Despite what Brown says, I doubt we extend Tucker. I think he wants 8 years or longer and Crane isn't about that life. Chas on the other hand should be extended. He's older, and just started seeing success. He also has a few more arbitration years left so more risk on his end. Add 3 years at 20 million per to his current arbitration years and see if he says no.
I agree that Chas should be extended, but don't think it will take that much. Chas was a late round pick and hasn't made nearly the money Tucker has. Kyle signed for $4 million and Chas for $1 thousand. Kyle will be a FA at 29, Chas at 32. If the team were to offer Chas $20M over the course of his 3 arb years and 2 yrs at $15M. 5 yrs and $50M he would probably take it. Months ago he was not seen as an everyday player, much less worthy of a $50M contract. He would be set for life.
He could go 8 years if extended this year.... which makes it only a 6 year extended contract on top of the 2 years of arb.If they wait until he becomes a FA then Tucker is gone.
I think if you want him to sign it this off-season total value will need to start with a 3. Otherwise he’ll bet on himself and continued salary inflation. 10-12 year $300M. I would do it.
He should have been. The only reason not to have Chas be an everyday player entering this season is if the Astros had 4 above hitters vs RHPs that could play OF/DH with at least one being a CF (Maybe 1-3 teams should Chas have entered the season as a platoon bat).
I fear you are right. I still think it is the right thing for the team though. Tucker is about as safe a gamble on a 10 yr deal that there is. And 2022: 15 contracts of $30M+ 2023: 16 contracts of $30M+ 2024: 17 contracts of $30M+ already before FA. By the 2nd half of his deal teams will expect to spend $12M+ per WAR in FA Very good risk to take.
I don't think he'd accept it, but that is the deal I'd like to see, though I'd pay him more upfront to be more enticing. I'd go up to 10/$300 or 8/$240 if it would get it done. Aaron Judge would be the best comp right now, and he got 9/$360M, and supposedly turned down a bigger offer.
Tucker isn't getting Aaron Judge money from any team. If he held out for that he'd be at home, watching the games on tv in 2 years
I think a large part of this has been the fact we haven't had a player that justified giving this type of contract too...until Tucker. You could argue Gerrit Cole but pitchers are so much riskier. At the end of the day, we've had no issues paying old players (Abreu, JV, etc.) so why not pay Tucker?
Lol are you being serious? Tucker isn't even in the same stratosphere as Aaron Judge leading up to that contract. Judge had 4 seasons of 5+ WAR (plus a 4.3 WAR season) including one at 8.8 and last year 11.5. Tucker has exactly zero 5+ WAR seasons so far and his defense has been so bad this season that he might not get there again this year. Judge is not only a much, much better hitter but also better defensively.
