You can post "pitch the starters more" until you're blue in the face - the fact is, the starters just don't have more juice. Let's look at just duration: Full Rest Game 1, LDS: Clemens, 7 innings (win) Game 2, LDS: Oswalt, 6 1/3 innings (loss) Game 3, LDS: Backe, 6 innings (win) Game 2, LCS: Munro, 4 2/3 innings (loss) Short Rest Game 4, LDS: Clemens, 5 innings (loss) Game 5, LDS: Oswalt, 5 innings (win) Game 1, LCS: Backe, 4 2/3 innings (loss) I don't see a game in that list that you can question Garner about, unless it's game 2 of the LDS. You pitch guys on short rest, you're not going to get more than 5 innings out of them. You go on full rest and you're getting 6 or 7, unless you're talking about Munro (who's just not that good). It's pick your poison, to be honest. In games 3, 4 and 5 of the LCS, you're going to have Clemens and Oswalt and Backe on full rest, so you should be able to close games down with 6+ innings from your starter and Wheeler and Lidge out of the pen. You're not forced to turn to Harville and Qualls and Micelli if you're starter has the gas to go 7. In games 6 and 7 you're going to be starting guys on short rest, so you're back to those terrible middle relievers after 5 innings apiece from Oswalt and Clemens. Under those conditions, maybe you go to Pete Munro as a reliever? At least he performed well in his first 4 innings.
Let's say you DO want to play the percentages (using regular season stats): Take Munro's sudden departure from the game... Harville has a 6.00 ERA in Busch Stadium this year. (He has a 5.49 ERA at night.) With runners on, batters are hitting .299 against him. The #4 hitter in lineups (and Rolen was hitting #4 last night) are batting .435 against him this year. The next highest is the #1 batter at .364. Harville has a 5.40 ERA when given 0 days of rest. Rolen was also 1-2 this year against him. Result: HOME RUN! Let's compare that to, say, Wheeler. Wheeler has a 0.00 ERA at Busch Stadium (albeit, in 1.1 innings), and hitters are batting .317 against him with runners on. (He has a 5.20 ERA at night.) The #4 hitter is batting only .233 against him (second lowest, as far as lineup positions go). Wheeler has a 9.00 ERA on 0 days rest (ugh). Consequently, Rolen is 0-2 against Wheeler this year. Heck, let's try Qualls. Qualls has a 3.86 ERA at Busch, and hitters are batting .277 against him with runners on. (He has a 3.18 ERA at night.) The #4 batter is batting a paltry .091 against him, and Rolen himself is 0-1 against him this year (in the regular season). Qualls has a 4.26 ERA on 0 days rest. Point is, ANYONE but Harville should have gone in if Garner was looking at the percentages. Hell, Rolen was 0-2 against Munro up until that point. Why not leave him in? Let him get out of his own jam. So, the 8th inning is here, and you've got Lidge all warmed up? Fantastic! He's got a 0.00 ERA at Busch this year. Pujols is up? Sure! #3 batters are hitting .194 against him. Rolen? #4 hitters = .212. Oh, but what about Edmonds? Not a problem! #5 hitters are batting .128. Lidge is working on 3-5 days rest? Cool! His ERA is 1.59. Hey! Pujols is 1-6 against him, Rolen is 0-5, and Edmonds is 1-9. With no one on base, batters are hitting .197 against him. SO WHY IS MICELI IN THE GAME?!?! Sure, Miceli also owns a 0.00 ERA at Busch Stadium, but the #3 hitter is batting .276 against him, the highest as far as lineup positions go. #4 batter = .267 and #5 = .172. With no one on base, batters are hitting .269 against him. Pujols is 1-4 against him (the lone hit being a home run... WARNING BELLS GO OFF!), Rolen is 2-13, and Edmonds is 0-3. Look, I'm not trying to be a dick here. I'm just really wondering if Garner is even playing the percentages. To me, it doesn't seem like he is. IMO, I think he's picking relievers out of a hat...
VesceySux, I am just trying to understand why he brought Miceli in. I agree with putting Lidge in there though. But putting Miceli in there was not a horrible as some make it out to be. If Micelis performs against them like he has all season, then we aren't talking right now. However, as others have pointed out, if Garner had brought Lidge in and burned him up in a tie game and lost it with Miceli or Springer in extra innings, Garner would have been villified, just like he was in Game 2 of the Atl series. Either way, he is damned. Its a lose lose situation for him. If he manages like he did during the regular season win streak, he is critisized. If he manages outside the box, he is critisized.
Guys, I really don't know what I would do differently. I just think the fact that we have a horrible bullpen is finally starting to catch up with us. I just don't think you can beat a team like the cardinals unless: 1) You have a decent bullpen 2) You have a big lead in the late innings. Don't get me wrong, I haven't given up hope. A series doesn't start until the road team wins a game. I'm just saying everyone in our bullpen (besides Lidge) stinks and there's really nothing we can do about it.
Putting Miceli in a road game that's tied in the 8th inning is "managing not to lose the game." If this were football, Miceli is the prevent defense. You don't save Lidge just in case we happen to score a run in the ninth. You go for it all NOW, especially if you have nothing to lose in a game that no one thought you could win. Lidge is perfectly capable of pitching 2 innings, and with a day off today, he could have been ready for tomorrow's game. So, let's say that Garner gambles (Lidge goes in) and loses, and the score is still tied going to extra innings. Miceli comes in next, and the Cardinals win, anyway. I think the press and fans in general would be less likely to blame Garner for this past loss, since he had the guts to put his team into the best position to win. I know I wouldn't blame him, just like Game 2 of the NLDS. As for Miceli, he wasn't the worst option available, but he certainly wasn't the best. If you want to beat the Cardinals ON THE ROAD in the playoffs, you have to use your best to beat the best. Garner didn't do that.
I'd like to know why Vizcaino is still starting. He can't hit for **** and his range sucks. Does anyone know why Garner continues to let Vizcaino start? I'm sure even a rusty Everett can do better than a .241 obp and .222 slg.
RM95, we will never agree on anything. You're entitled to your opinion. I think that is the logical way for Garner to play right now with our sucky ass bullpen stinking it up. No one else can step up except Wheeler.
VesceySux, Garner was "managing not to lose the game" during our whole winning streak when Miceli was pitching short relief setting up Lidge. Garner used Lidge outside the box twice in the playoffs, and was burned both times. Hes damned either way, and I just don't think its fair. Um, this is exactly what happened in Game 2 v. Atlanta. The press and fans were all over Garner for using Lidge in the 7th and 8th and having to rely on Miceli in extra innings. With the exception of Lidge, he was the best option, since Wheeler probably wasn't available. And again, I thought Lidge should have been out there in the 8th. I just don't think having Miceli out there wasn't insane like some seem to think.
Miceli isn't bad, but Lidge SHOULD have been in. Glad we agree on that. As for Game 2 of the NLDS, I blame Lidge, NOT Garner. Good, gutsy call by Garner, bad execution by Lidge. Garner might have been in a lose-lose situation, but I'd feel a whole lot better today had the Cardinals beaten Lidge, our best relief pitcher, rather than Miceli. From Jayson Stark: Exactly!
VesceySux, Again, not much argument from me about Lidge not being in there. I just don't think it was insane, or even a low percentage or bad move to bring Miceli in. Thats his role and at some point, he and Qualls fill have to perform in that role for us to win this series.
