It feels great to be currently seated at the 3 spot after an entire season of unmet expectation, but can we all agree that the 2 seed would be even better? Aside from slotting ourselves out of GSW's side of the bracket--and giving other teams a chance, *cough* *cough* OKC, to get some body blows in on them before they face us in a potential WCF matchup--it's also really important because teams 4-6 in the West are really really good, and could knock us off in the first round if we're not careful. Being the 2 seed and facing San Antonio or the Clippers in the first round is MUCH more preferable than a possible OKC, Portland, or Utah matchup. To do that, however, would still take some major performance above expectation. This isn't too hard to envision, as expectation by the stats is based on how we've done in the regular season to this point, which definitely underrates us given how injured we were. So ESPN's playoff odds currently have Denver projected to finish at 53-29 and Houston in the 3 seed at 50-32, tied with Portland who we'd have the tiebreaker over. This presumes an 11-7 finish from our current record. Looking at our remaining schedule: vs PHI @ DAL vs CHA vs GSW vs PHX vs MIN @ ATL @ MEM vs SAS @ NOH @ MIL vs DEN vs SAC @ SAC @ LAC vs NYK vs PHX @ OKC It sounds like the projection would have us go 1-3 against the "tough" games (PHI, GSW, DEN, OKC), fish out another 3 losses against the so-so teams (SAS, SAC, SAC, MIN, NOH) and take one bad loss against the rest. Pretty easy in my imagination to do better than that. Now looking at Denver's remaining schedule which they project an 11-8 finish against: @ LAL @ GSW vs MIN vs DAL vs IND @ BOS @ WAS @ NYK @ IND vs DET @ HOU @ OKC vs WAS @ GSW vs SAS vs POR @ POR @ UTA vs MIN Okay...that is a crazy finish. I don't see much if any opportunity to catch a breather in there. If Houston has 4 good opponents, 5 mediocre opponents, and 9 bad opponents left, then I would put Denver at 9 good opponents, 5 mediocre ones, and 5 bad ones. And momentum is not favoring them either. Clearly the most important game for both teams is when Denver visits Houston March 28. It's not hard to see that ESPN is overrated Denver's potential end run for the year, and underrating Houston's. This is going to go down to the wire.
its still way too early to be determining matchups. just like how easy it was for the rockets to even reach 3rd seed when a ton of the board said they have no shot, things can shake up in a ton of different ways with so much season left. the only thing the rockets need to worry about is themselves. continue rolling like they are going to and the seeding takes care of itself. it doesn't really matter what it is
Denver is not nearly as good as their record. They have lost to bad teams and are very poor on the road. I think when its all said and done we'll see them closer to the 5th or 6th seed than the 2nd.
Could be interesting. I don't bet against us .. . esp now I have not been overly impressed with the Nuggets I simply don't trust them to main tain They had a shot at #1 and fudged it @ GSW vs MIN vs IND @ BOS @ IND @ HOU @ OKC @ GSW vs SAS vs POR @ POR @ UTA vs MIN These 13 games . . . . .. They could easily go very badly for The Nuggets Rocket River
Let's pump the brakes and take it one game at a time. Just like CFers shouldn't melt down every time we lose a game ("Harden chucks! CP3 is old! MDA sucks!"), CFers also shouldn't be getting their hopes up too much.
Yep, this is a marathon to the finish not a sprint. We need to make sure we win the games we're supposed to win and stay competitive in the others. Health overall, is what matters most.
If the Rockets go 15-3 the rest of the way(including beating the Nuggets), there's a very good chance they'll get the 2nd seed. I could easily see Denver losing 7 more games.
Fighting the Warriors in the second round is a blessing in the skies. Also if we lose we get lebron anyway so it's all good.
Denver is decidedly better at home, and they have a lot of road games against good teams left. Good chance they are very close to .500 the rest of the way. Considering one of their games is against us, we really only need to make up 3 losses in their other games, which I honestly think is more likely than not at this point.
The keys are the Rockets' health and no longer dropping games to inferior opponents. Let's not forget that during this 6-game winning streak, they had to come back from 21 down at home in the 3rd quarter to beat the Heat. And their most recent loss was to the reeling Lakers in which they blew a 19-point 3rd quarter lead(yes, I know Scott Foster was there, but still). These kinds of things can't happen anymore.
Lets just look at the next 10 games Portland - okc, suns, @clippers, @ pels, @ spurs, pacers, Mavs, Pistons, Nets, @ Bulls -- Realistically they probably will go 8-2 in that stretch at worst OKC - @ Por, @LAC, @ Jazz, Nets, @Pacers (b2b), Warriors, Heat, Raptors, @ Raptors, @ Grizz, - They most likely will go 5-5 here maybe even 4-6 Denver - @LAL, @GS, Wolves, Mavs, Pacers, @ Bos, @ Wash, @NYK (b2b), @ Pacers, Pistons - Most likely 8-2 maybe 7-3 Houston - 76ers, @ Mavs, Hornets (b2b), Warriors, Suns, Wolves, @ Hawks, @ Grizz (b2b), Spurs, @ Pels --- I would say 8-2 at best so unless Houston goes on streak like last year where they won 17 straight I do not see them gaining too much ground on either Denver or Portland. Of course any one of these teams can easily drop games that they shouldn't - you have to play the games, but on paper outside of OKC things look to be fairly even schedule wise
With the way Paul and gordon are playing - back to their normal selves - as long as we get healthy and stay healthy it wouldn't surprise me at all if we get the second seed. It looks like clark is playing serviceable defense, and if gerald green is hitting those threes, we can beat anybody. i don't care who it is. It wouldn't surprise me at all if we end this season as the best team in the league, going on a huge run. We need Faried and Shump to get healthy, and i really believe we can catch that magic carpet ride all the way to the NBA finals.
i would like our chances at a title MUCH more if we can somehow snag that 2 seed. also harden would have to be guaranteed MVP if that were to happen, surely...... right????
Agreed . I'm not even sure which teams we match up best agaisnt . Personally I think OKC might be a worse matchup than GS ... obviously GS' talent is better but we seem to have a good formula vs them Likewise we never play the clippers that well. I think we would stomp Denver , Utah , SA (just not enough talent ) Portland has me a little worried , but I am a worry wart and rivers should be huge vs their guards , it's their athleticism in the frontcourt I don't like . If the Pelicans made it I would be terrified of them lol ... we also don't play well vs them
The Nuggs are already on a losing streak and i expect them to fold even more as the pressure gets to them. I do agree with others here that we just need to take it one game at a time and enjoy them.
Keep your eye on the prize, cfnet DEN can't beat us (1-11 since Jokic became starter, Clint was out in loss) So, the 2nd round HCA is irrelevant. Thus, what we really need is a Catching Philly thread for HCA, since that's who we will meet in the Finals that said: 2nd Seed makes Harden a lock for MVP, and it means we jelled...and #nbatwitter will be jelly
