This is probably a positive ultimately, right? A new team, new coach, new major players, still very young and learning to shed bad habits. I think it has been a blessing though a pain as a fan. All that practice time. I wonder how good a team could get if they treated the nba like a full time job and didn’t have off seasons. I know off season is also about restoring health, but like what if teams went to the gym M-F and continued light drills, shooting, workouts and most importantly film work throughout the whole offseason and over numerous years. Would it make a significant difference? Just wondering aloud.
Looking back, the first 33 games looked brutal on the schedule, and then they added OKC and Denver after the in season tourney. Like I said in the OP, I would have been very happy if we had 13 wins and playing 0.400 ball at this point. We are 5 games ahead of that, but also have had injury luck vs Denver and the Kings with Murray and Fox out, as well as a couple other games. Overall we are right on track for a second half surge that would have gotten us to 40 wins, but now probably tracking closer to 45 wins with the injury luck. Utah is predictably worse than Houston. The 4 top teams in the West have separated themselves, with 6-7 teams jumbled in the middle that will end up winning in the 40s plus or minus, depending on injury and luck, with Houston smack in the middle of that group. All a fairly predictable outcome, it’s a wonder how many underestimated this group so much in the beginning.
I still believe this team will hit stride in 2-3 weeks and go to another level. The adjustment to Udoka was going to take nearly half the season.
I just was hoping to stay around .500 come January. Injuries aren’t helping but this team, like the Texans, is ahead of schedule.
Most people were expecting 30ish wins, so staying .500 after the hardest part of the schedule before January would have already crushed expectations their.
Most people are pessimists. Also, we had a tough like few games but before that our schedule wasn’t that tough and we played some of the fewest games for the first month+.
Pessimism has nothing to do with it, the likelihood of a team having a 20+ win improvement season without the addition of a superstar is very low. A 26-win improvement (48 wins total) would tie the Rockets for the 10th largest season-over-season win improvement in league history. Rockets are currently projected to win 44. This team is currently surpassing an objective expectation of improvement. If someone saw this coming they were being very optimistic, or a homer.
I predict the Rockets will have 38 wins for the season, plus or minus 2. We are pretty bad on the road and we have more road games than home games left.
Most teams most years do not add an allstar caliber player like Fvv through FA while giving up nothing. Most teams most years do not add an elite coach like Ime Udoka while coming from one of the worst coaches in Steven Silas. Most teams most years do not have a rising star like Sengun that was primed to take a leap. And most teams most years definitely don’t have all three of those major factors coming into play all at once. Perhaps you were one of those who thought Fvv was just an overpaid Kpj. Or one of those who thought Sengun wasn’t worth the trouble. Or for some reason underestimated Udoka. Then you were wrong. So while a 20 win improvement would be pretty unpredictable for MOST TEAMS MOST YEARS, it was very predictable for this team this year. And to call those who correctly predicted it - proven to be realists - “being very optimistic, or a homer” sounds like someone who was just wrong and doubling down on being wrong. Besides, ask the Jalen Green cult whether I am a homer and optimistic.
This team is going to keep improving and we have gone through the hardest part of the schedule so that prediction is not going to hold. (I predicted 40 wins and that will also not hold) 1. continued improvement of established players ie jalen has been getting better, Sengun at another level 2. amen and whitmore getting their bearings, almost no rookies are good at the start of their rookie year, but can start to contribute second half 3. stone has to flip Oldadipo or lose that contract, more moves at the deadline
The softer strength of schedule over the remainder of the season seems like it should, in theory, make up for the extra road games... but it is slightly weird how imbalanced our home v away schedule is to start the season. Not that I think a 38-win prediction is unreasonable, just sayin.
Last season FVV shot 39% from the field and 34% from 3, Dillon shot 39/32, and neither Jeff nor Aaron were expected to have the impact they've had. Senguns outbreak wasn't even expected from our own FO who has trying to sign Lopez. Ime had high praises, but he only coached 1 season for a team that had an elite roster. What has taken place amongst our coaching, FA signings, and internal improvement has been just about the best-case scenario for everybody but Jalen. None of the media commentators, analysis folk, or betting lines (all mostly relatively objective sources) had us winning anywhere near the mid-40s. Almost everything had us being around 29-33 wins (IIRC) You can insist on a historically huge improvement being obvious and infer if one doesn't or didn't think so maybe they're a dud, but y'know just not reality, IMO.
For me the optimism for a turnaround like this didn't just come from what the shooting percentage was for fvv and Brooks. It came from who was going out and what was coming in. What this team was missing last year was defensive intensity and poise at the end of game. It was also a team that lacked accountibility. Dropping the immature kpj, Josh Christopher amd replacing them with fvv and db completely flipped that weakness. Replacing Silas with ime also made the defense a bigger point of emphasis. When you look at all that l, I don't think it's a complete surprise they are doing this.
