Biggest offseason priority outside of resigning Astros?

The Astros aren't gonna dump Tyler White, he played extremely well. 2 bad games in the ALCS doesn't eliminate the .900 OPS he posted in the regular season and 1st round. Not to mention he is team controlled in a time salary is becoming an issue. People are acting remarkably shortsighted removing him from the equation.

Resign Morton, and I'm fine with Peacock replacing Keuchel, I see no need to invest much in a starter. If the reports on LMJ are true and we lose Morton and DK, then it is an issue that needs to be addressed externally.

Catcher clearly has to be addessed, and I think we should go after a 1B with Yuli sliding into Marwin's role.

 

Let's look to Arizona for that...

 

If he can come at a reasonable price, I really like Eovaldi as another Astros reclamation project. He's a high velo guy with a nice arsenal that the Astros could shape in a way to make him a potential TOR arm.

 

As effective as Eovaldi has been in these playoffs, I don’t think he will be in Houston’s price range. At this point he’s not really a reclamation project, he’s more of a good pitcher with question marks.

 

He only has one year left. He would be a perfect add for the right price, but Luhnow has shown an aversion to giving up much for a rental.

Have to admit, dropping Goldy into a lineup with Bregman, Springer and a healthy Correa/Altuve, it gets me rock hard.

 

Hell yeah!!! Trades are part of every sport, you can't fill everything internally. Plus, our farm is so stacked let's not waste it, and clear up the logjam and give MLB-worthy players playing time that they deserve, since our roster is so hard to crack.

Absolutely, WAY better stuff than Peacock, and I think McHugh has been too valuable as a reliever to move back to the rotation. All for that.

 

We don’t “need a hitter at C”, we just got smoked by a team with two awful hitting catchers. The reason people think we need a hitting catching is because our DH is trash, Reddick may be the worst hitting RF in the league and Gurriel is a poor hitting 1B. That’s the issue. Three typical positions you should be getting power at a minimum out of we’re getting absolutely nothing.

 

Based on what is our DH trash?

People just choose to completely ignore everything else because White had a few bad games in the ALCS.

 

I'm certainly not ready to dump him, but I also am not going to get too attached over one good month. In most circumstances he deserves a full season, but as a contender if you could plug in say a Nelson Cruz there for a one or two year rental you have to consider it.

 

True, he was good this year, but I think he would be a good candidate for a Cole-like transformation with the Astros. He probably will be pricey but hopefully they can save money elsewhere as finding a way to sign him and extend Cole would help a lot post-2019.

 

Grouping the current 40 man:

100% locked in (8):
3B Bregman
2B Altuve
SS Correa
OF Springer
SP Verlander
SP Cole
RP Osuna
RP Pressly

99% locked in (5):
IF Gurriel: would be hard to get good value due to salary
IF White: after how he hit this season he’s earned a spot
Reddick: salary and down year makes him hard to move
James: 102mph hard to justify trading or in minors
Rondon: effective, experienced, cheap

Likely to return (15):
Kemp: low ceiling, poor defense lowers his value, but he is consistent and still has options
Davis: unless he’s traded he’s a great guy to have in minors
Tucker: unless he’s traded he’ll be counted on
Straw: great guy to have in minors
Marisnick: just don’t see them non-tendering Jake
Deetz: high upside RP
Guduan: 100mph lefty
Devenski: trading him would be selling low
Morton: can’t see him signing anywhere else
McHugh: with McCullers out, his value to Houston goes up
Peacock: see above
C Perez: could be traded
Valdez: could be traded

Hard to say (6):
Marwin: depends on the market
Fisher: depends on his trade value
Stassi: catcher is the big ?
Maldonado: hopefully they upgrade
Harris: depends on a lot of factors
Smith: depends on a lot of factors
Rodgers: low value could be dfa
Gustave: low value could be dfa

Probably gone (3):
Sipp: unless his market craters
Gattis: hard to see a path to him returning
Reed: likely to be traded or dfa

99% gone (2):
Keuchel: too expensive
McCann: too old

DL (2):
McCullers
Martes

 

as of mid september .308/.389/.610 batting line with 11 home runs and 35 RBI in 50 games. it wasn't just some random good month. he played for his spot on the playoff roster and earned it

 

What could they do with Smith? He hasn't been the guy they thought they were getting with they signed him, and with his loss of velocity this season, he's probably not going to rebound to something approaching who he was in 2017. Feel like it's a waste having him around but they are going to eat a significant loss if they move him.

 

He'll be back unless somebody is willing to take most of his salary without us adding much prospect value.

He was dominant for 80% of the season. It's reasonable to expect he will give you quality relief work in 2019 versus just eating that money outright.

 

He’s better than “one good month”. He now has a wRC+ of 112 over 580 career PA (higher than the career marks of Gurriel, Marwin, McCann, Reddick, and Gattis). Over this season he had a 144 wRC+. Tyler White may or may not be a legit star hitter, but at a minimum he’s justified penning him into the opening day roster next season.

 

If you think you can acquire Realmuto without giving up Tucker or Whitley then I don't know what to tell you. He was their best player. Would you give up your best player for a package that didn't include the other team's best prospect? If you put a gun to my head, I'd give up Tucker over Whitley. The bidding war over Realmuto is gonna be insane, and not one I'm holding my breath on.

 

I mostly agree with this.

I mentioned before the ALCS that the middle of our order was concerning for several reasons - especially if Correa is hurt/struggling. Sure enough...

The Astros lack a genuine power bat in the middle of their order. I expect Correa to rebound next year - but even peak-Correa is not a 40-HR guy. They need a stick to clean up all the on-base activity of Springer, Bregman and Altuve.

They also need more consistency from the bottom of the order; you can get away with it over a long regular season but there are too many holes: Gurriel, Gonzalez, Reddick, White, Kemp, (catcher)... too inconsistent.

If what we've seen from Kemp is sustainable (a .350+ OB%), he's in my '19 line-up everyday (likely taking Gonzalez's role). From there, you need to develop a consistent, '17-like Reddick performer to extend your line-up beyond the top 4 guys - an .800+ OPS guy who does everything well. Hopefully, Tucker can fill that role.

Pitching-wise, this series exposed something I think we all knew but hoped wouldn't rear it's ugly head: 3/5 of our rotation cannot be depended on. When Keuchel, McCullers and Morton are clicking, they're as good as it gets. But they have durability issues, they fight some inconsistency (especially Keuchel) and if they carry too heavy a load in the regular season, they're doomed to be hurt/gassed by October. They need to rebuild the back 1/2 of that rotation, including finding - and utilizing - greater depth.

I think the bullpen if just fine; I wouldn't touch a thing, other than potentially adding McCullers or Morton full-time.

 

I am not sure how high the bidding will go on Realmuto. But Houston has a very deep 2nd tier of prospects. Alvarez is an mlb top 50 guy. C Martin, Bukauskas, C Perez, F Valdez, James, and possibly a few others have varying values depending on who you ask, but all of them could justifiably be in the back end of a Top 100. I would expect that Alvarez plus 3-4 of the next group would compete with what other teams would be able to offer. Gotta keep in mind that Realmuto’s market will only be contending teams (since he only has 2 years left), and of the dozen or so teams hoping to contend, only a handful will have the farm system to make a competitive bid, and not all of those have a need at catcher.

 

Just my random thoughts...

I can see some combination of Gurriel, White, and/or Reddick being used in a trade package to improve the middle of the lineup. Not sure if that means going after a Realmuto or someone else. I love Josh Reddick but from RF, he has to be more 2017 and less 2018. White seems to be a natural hitter but isn't offering a ton else. Maybe he's more valuable since he's under team control. He'd be a good, cheap, addition to a rebuilding team to anchor their lineup. Gurriel is going to be 35 next season. When he's on, HE'S ON. When he's not, it's pretty bad. He's a good defensive player and his ability to play a few positions certainly makes him valuable.

I'd like to see a run at Realmuto as I think getting a solid defensive catcher who can hit is a huge advantage. I'd like to see improvement from the DH spot. I think they're going to tell Tucker that LF is his to lose. I think they're going to let Keuchel walk and give CFM a 1-year deal at something reasonable. Whitley/Peacock/McHugh/James get the chance to fight it out for the 5th spot. I'm concerned about McCullers and now think that maybe it's time to talk to him about a move to the pen. Find a way to move Joe Smith. I have a feeling that we'll see a resurgence from Devo next season. Don't know if it was injury or what...but I think he'll be back and be closer to 2017 Devo. Getting a Nelson Cruz or Adrian Beltre would be a good vet replacement for McCann.

 

Has McCullers having tommy john been confirmed? I haven't seen it yet