Texas could beat TAMU right now, 2 years ago TAMU would have smoked them. We would have been fine playing them 2 years ago. Now there would be uncertainty. The line would be much tighter. That's why the SEC might be hesitant.
10 years ago there was zero chance. Now we're sitting pretty at 5-15%. Once Khator gets Patterson to sext her noodz, it'll be a sure thing. Let's say the Big 12 adds Houston. Compared to other conferences, how would the team to state population ratio add up? Big 12 / Texas - 5.21 million people per team Pac 12 / Oregon - 1.95 million people per team Pac 12 / Washington - 3.45 million people per team Pac 12 / Arizona - 3.28 million people per team SEC / Mississippi - 1.49 million people per team SEC / Alabama - 2.41 million people per team SEC / Tennessee - 3.23 million people per team Big 10 / Indiana - 3.27 million people per team Big 10 / Michigan - 4.94 million people per team ACC / North Carolina - 2.43 million people per team ACC / Virginia - 4.09 million people per team Texas is huge. And it's growing faster than virtually every other state in the union, and has been for a really long time. Another important point, the average distance between a Big 12 school in Texas and the city of Houston is 285 miles. That's greater than the distance from Washington DC to Raleigh NC. This is not the SWC 2.0 we're talking about here. The Big 12 has 6 non-Texas schools that represent 4 states spanning over 1000 miles (in this 12 team world, it would be 7 non-Texas schools in 5 states). The SWC had 8 Texas schools. 5 is significantly less than that, and of those 5, 2 are small private schools. I think all this "2.0 SWC" talk is just a trumped up strawman that anti-UH people keep propping up. From what I've heard, those 3 especially want Houston to be included (as do most of the other non-Texas schools, because they lack the exposure and access to Houston that A&M previously granted them. That's like telling a starving man to focus on finding skinny jeans instead of a sandwich. Lulz. Let's not pretend that basketball matters here. And even if it did, Memphis' bball program is on a downswing... and their football program has been somewhere between mediocre and atrocious for a decade. Unfortunately for the Big 12, nobody outside of the P5 is a huge TV draw. That's why they're on the outside. Cinci and UCF probably do the best, but there's more to it than just that. New markets are more appealing *to you*, but the Big 12 (outside of UT) has significant room for improvement in the Houston ratings. Warning, big data post: Spoiler This is the TV ratings in the Houston market for the majority (no idea if it's comprehensive) of college football games aired between 2008-2012. SEC games in blue. Big 12 games in red. Cross-conference games in black. 2008 UT-Tech ABC 16.2 2012-13 A&M-OU FOX 14.9 2009 UT-A&M ESPN 13.8 2009 Flor-Ala CBS 12.3 2008 Tech-OU ABC 11.6 2008 UT-OU ABC 10.9 2009 Tech-UT ABC 10.9 2009 UT-OU ABC 10.8 2008 OSU-UT ABC 10.2 2012 A&M-Alabama CBS 9.6 2011 OU-UT ABC 9.5 2008 OSU-Tech ABC 9.4 2008 OU-OSU ABC 9.3 2008 Flor-Ala CBS 9.1 2009 KU-UT ABC 9 2009 UT-OSU ABC 8.9 2011 OSU-A&M ABC 8.4 2011 UT-Bay ABC 8.2 2012 Ala-Geor CBS 7.93 2011 UT-A&M ESPN 7.9 2009 UT-Mizz ABC 7.7 2011 OSU-UT ABC 7.7 2008 Mizz-OU ABC 7.6 2011 LSU-GA CBS 7.4 2011 Okla-Flor St ABC 7.3 2012 Flo-A&M ESPN 7.1 2009 Flor-LSU CBS 6.8 2012 Ala-LSU CBS 6.7 2012 A&M-LSU ESPN 6.7 2011 OU-OSU ABC 6.6 2009 LSU-Ala CBS 6.3 2012 Tex-Okla ABC 6.2 2012 Tex-Okla St Fox 6.2 2012 UT-K-State ABC 6.11 2008 Ala-LSU CBS 6.1 2012 WVU-Texas FOX 5.7 2011 LSU-W.Virg ABC 5.6 2012 Bay-UT ABC 5.6 2009 LSU-GA CBS 5.5 2012 UT-Tx Tech ABC 5.4 2008 LSU-Flor CBS 5.2 2009 Aub-Ala CBS 5.2 2012 LSU-Flor CBS 4.9 2011 A&M-ISU ABC 4.7 2011 Bay-OU ABC 4.5 2012 WVU-Tech ABC 4 2009 A&M-Ark ESPN2 4 2012 Miz-A&M ESPN2 3.94 2012 UT-Ole Miss ESPN 3.8 2012 Tech-TCU ABC 3.6 2012 Sou Car-LSU CBS 3.6 2012 A&M-Miss St ESPN 3.5 2012 LSU-Ark CBS 3.4 2011 LSU-Aub CBS 3.3 2011 Ark-Ala CBS 3 2012 Ala-Ark CBS 3 2011 Bay-TCU ESPN 2.94 2011 Tech-OU ABC 2.9 2012 Ga- Flor CBS 2.8 2012 Flo-Tenn ESPN 2.8 2012 Tech-KSU FOX 2.7 2012 Miz-S.Caro CBS 2.5 2012 Okla-Tech ABC 2.4 2012 Miss-LSU CBS 2.34 2012 Okla-TCU FOX 2.32 2012 LSU-Aub ESPN 2.3 2012 Bay-Tech FOX 2.3 2012 K-State-Bay ESPN 2.22 2012 Tenn/Ga CBS 2.2 2012 Ark-USC CBS 2.2 2012 Miss St-LSU ESPN 2.2 2012 TCU-UT ESPN 2.2 2012 Ok St-K-State ABC 1.9 2012 WVU-ISU ABC 1.9 2012 USC-Flor CBS 1.9 2012 Ala-Mizzou CBS 1.8 2012 Tenn-USC ESPN 1.8 2012 K-State-OU FOX 1.8 2012 Aub-Miss St ESPN 1.7 2012 K-State-WVU FOX 1.6 2012 Okla-WVU FOX 1.57 2012 K-State-TCU FOX 1.5 2012 MSU-Ala ESPN 1.4 2012 OSU-OU ESPN 1.4 2011 Tech-Baylor FSN Hou 1.4 2012 Okla-Iowa St ABC 1.3 2012 Miss-Ala ESPN 1.3 2012 Aub-Ala CBS 1.2 2012 Tech-Okla St FSS 1.19 2012 UT-Kan FSS 1.1 2012 WVU-Okla St ABC 1.1 2012 Ga-Sou Car ESPN 1 2012 Ala-Tenn ESPN 0.9 2012 Miss-Goergia CBS 0.8 2012 TCU-OSU FSS 0.6 2012 TCU-WVU FOX 0.5 2012 Kan-Tx Tech FSS 0.5 2012 Miz-Flor ESPN2 0.4 2012 Tenn-Vandy ESPN2 0.4 2012 Bay-Okla FSS 0.4 2012 KU-Okla Fox SW 0.3 2012 Bay-ISU FSS 0.3 2012 Mizzou-Tenn Hou TV 0.3 2012 Georgia-Aub ESPN2 0.2 2012 Kan-Bay FSS 0.2 2012 Kan-WVU FSS 0.04 A few observations. 1) The SEC's ratings are remarkably consistent, especially when you consider that many of those highly rated games have zero Texas participants. 2) The pre-2013 numbers don't 100% accurately reflect the Texas/Houston market's interest in the SEC, which will have obviously grown due to A&M joining that conference. 3) The Big 12 can put up some amazing numbers, but one of two things needs to happen. Either UT needs to be playing, or there needs to be national title implications on the line (i.e. 2009, when OU-UT-TTU were tied in a 3 way death struggle). 4) The Big 12's standard deviation is quite high. Their peaks are blunted quite hard by the lows that come from games between the also-rans and out-of-state programs that no one really cares for. Conclusion: I don't think that Houston's chances are 0%, and your hardline, anti-UH stance has always puzzled me. If politics has anything to do with it (and by God it will), Houston will have its voice heard. The networks do run the show, but a few things are clear: Houston has made some of the most significant investments in athletics of all the non-P5 programs, there's more than enough room for 5 Texas teams in the conference, and the Big 12 is not above reproach in the Houston market.
Could? Yes. But A&M would be favored in that matchup. As much as they've gone down, Texas has gone sideways and still has a ways to go to catch up.
I'm willing to bet there were less than 2,000 students at that game. Looked that way on TV, at least. Turdy Tony's farewell was not well attended. Like a creepy uncle's funeral.
I've heard the idea floated to have a 4th non-conference game in lieu of expansion and a championship game. I have no idea how feasible that would be, but i like it.
They need to just grant them the exception to have a championship game. The rule prohibiting that is outdated. I do not want them to expand at this point. Playing every other team in the conference every year is how it should be. I love that you know you'll see the same guys every year and develop real rivalries. Some players in the SEC will go their entire careers without playing other schools in the same conference. That's dumb.
I'm not sure how a championship game would even work in a round-robin 10 team league. The idea of a championship game is that the teams in different brackets didn't play the same schedule, so you want to figure out who really is better. In the SEC, an East team that goes 8-0 might be worse than a West team that goes 6-2 so it makes sense to have a title game. But when you play a round robin, the whole thing seems kind of pointless. It seems unfair to the team that won the game the first time around to have to win twice.
It tells you how badly the Big12 mismanaged conference realignment when we're talking about replacing Nebraska, Missouri, Colorado, and A&M with TCU, WVU, Memphis, and BYU.
Oh I know it - UT was the driving force behind all the arrogance, both in its attitude towards moving and towards the money (LHN, etc). I said it at the time: UT was overplaying its hand assuming everyone wanted them on UT's terms and it was going to backfire miserably. The disaster was easy to foresee from the start. They should have jumped at the chance to join the Pac10 when it was available (with or without Baylor - sorry ). Instead, they wanted to be kings of a weak conference who's members were all leaving anytime they were given an opportunity. The only ones that stayed were the ones that had no real alternatives (and OU, who's tied to UT). The only ones that joined were the ones running away from their own even worse conferences.
I don't even get the conference title game with just 10 teams? Lulz? It seems like the Big 12 is always crying about something or doing something stupid. If they get the title game allowance I hope the NCAA also announces an 8-team playoff 5 minutes later... I also hope I wake up tomorrow and OKST + Kansas are in the Big 10 or something.
Not that they've ever been mentioned but Colorado State would be interesting. They have a decent sized following in CO and would put the Big 12 back in Denver. Adding them and BYU would be 2 really good gets, IMO.
