About Berkman and Beltran... I was suggesting trading Lance ONLY if it is the only way to keep Beltran. If Beltran only wants to stay with Lance as a teammate, yet still demands a Boras-megadeal, then let him go and use the money to resign Lance. But if Beltran tells Gerry and Drayton that his #1 choice is Houston, and he is more interested in getting a fair deal than becoming the highest-paid CF in baseball, I would move Berkman if it were the only way to keep Beltran. Ideally, I'd like to keep both, but I can't see Drayton being cool with having two $10M outfielders, and I consider Beltran a much better overall player. Not that I don't love Lance, but I just consider a 27 year-old, switch-hitting centerfielder with power, a glove and speed a much more important piece to a team than a slugging, plodding out-of-position firstbaseman with a fantastic OBP.
We can be better by making a few simple adjustments. Drayton would have to take a whatever it takes approach with Beltran and buyout Bags though. 1B - Berkman 2B - Biggio SS - Everett 3B - Ensberg LF - Lamb CF - Beltran RF - Lane C - Chavez/Ausmus Rotation: Pettitte, Oswalt, Miller, Hernandez, Clemens/Backe/Munro This is a combination that can win some games. On the bench you can have Burke to spell Biggio and take some spot starts. You can take a more reasoned appraoch to allowing him to get used to being in the bigs. And nobody buys tickets...then there is less money for salaries...etc etc etc. He has been terrible in AAA this year. In no way is he ready for the bigs. Ensberg in the second half of the season has developed into a pretty good clutch hitter and is developing into an RBI guy. I think you're giving up on him too soon.
In my opinion, the problem with both of your approaches is that a team with our revenue cannot afford Beltran's demands. His agent has repeatedly made comparisons to Vlad and A-Rod as similar free agents, so his market price is already going to price Houston out of the running with that. Unless his sub-par performance here brings his demands waaay down Beltran will ask for entirely too much for the Astros to sign him.
While I understand that baseball economics do not favor the Astros situation, I do not think the prospect of one season letting the young guys learn on the job is quite as dire as you might make it sound. Remember 2001...the disaster sandwiched between those division championships? That was worse than this year, except that it allowed for the emergence of guys like Berkman, Oswalt and Dotel. Because the team was out of contention early, there was no pressure on the young guys, and that season of 'waiting till next year' helped forge the backbone of a team that went on to win next year. Now, only 3 years removed from the type of season I was talking about, we are doing well enough to add Kent, Clemens, Pettite and Beltran within the past 18 months, so I don't think the long-term impact on revenues would be devastating. 1B - Berkman...same, different position (slight upgrade over Bags defensively) 2B - Biggio...same, different position (little, if any, improvement over Kent) SS - Everett...same 3B - Ensberg...same LF - Lamb...not close to Kent offensively, and has never played OF fulltime CF - Beltran...same RF - Lane...not as good as Bags offensively, and D makes Berkman look Gold Glove C - Chavez/Ausmus...same Rotation: Pettitte, Oswalt, Miller, Hernandez, Clemens/Backe/Munro I don't see how this team is any improvement at all. All that's different is Lane and Lamb have replaced Kent and Bagwell in the lineup and Carlos has replaced Redding in the rotation. How is that any different from this year? I don't see Lane and Lamb outproducing Bagwell and Kent, and I doubt Hernandez is going to dominate from year 1, so how is this team supposed to be any better than the squad that can't get above .500 this year? Worse yet, we are actually worse defensively with your lineup. Lane is worse than Berkman in right, Lamb is worse than Biggio in left, Biggio is not much better than Kent, and Berkman (other than throwing) is a downgrade from Bagwell. No, I think we need to follow the blueprint of our small-market brethren, the Indians, Marlins, A's and Twins. They use what little money they have to lock up core players early, then constantly fill in defections with cheap home-grown talent. Cleveland, I think, is a perfect blueprint of where we are and what we need to do: 1. Tear it down The Tribe realized that their core team of the 90's had peaked, so two years ago they started to blow it up. Soon gone were Thome, Colon, Alomar, Manny and all the other high-priced heros of their 90's glory days. As much as it hurts to admit, we need to do the same with Bagwell, Biggio, Kent, Ausmus and Clemens. None will be around when this team has any hope of being good again anyway. 2. Bring up the kids Once the field was cleared of the old blood, the Indians were not shy about bringing in the young guys. While the likes of Phillips, Martinez, Hafner, Crisp, Sabathia, Drew and Lee struggled the past couple of years attendance did suffer, but management stayed true to the plan. Now look at the results: Casey Blake (age 30)...a lot like Ensberg .274 AVG 21 HR 64 RBI Jody Gerut (26)...Tavares .254 AVG 9 HR 46 RBI V. Martinez (25)...like Gimenez .290 AVG 20 HR 91 RBI Travis Hafner (27)...Beltran .310 AVG 23 HR 91 RBI Coco Crisp (24)...Jimerson .272 AVG 10 HR 49 RBI Ben Broussard (27) .282 AVG 11 HR 60 RBI Cliff Lee (25)...Hernandez 10-5 5.10 ERA 137.2 IP Jake Westbrook (26)...Buckholtz 11-6 3.64 ERA 160.2 IP C.C. Sabathia (24) 9-8 4.17 ERA 155.1 IP The Indians now have a core of young, productive, cheap players just entering their prime together who are already jumping into contention. This could be the Astros in 2006, but they have to be willing to make sacrifices this year to see the fruits of their labor in the next. 3. Lock up the young talent and add final pieces The Indians are not to this point yet, but soon will be. In any case, their mastery in the early-mid 90's of this strategy preceeded even the obnoxious Beaneball as THE example of how to construct a mid-market team. They locked up guys like Belle, Lofton, Ramirez, Thome early, then always looked to improve by bringing in established vets like Alomar, Justice and Matt Williams to fill holes. This is the plan we should take. As I said, I don't agree with your assertion that "We can be better by making a few simple adjustments"...I think this season has proven this team has very deep flaws which cannot all be fixed in one offseason, much less with just minor tinkering. If a few simple adjustments were all that is needed to fix this team, I've got to believe one of the following would have worked: -moving Hidalgo -switching positions for Biggio and Berkman -adding Beltran -moving Dotel from closer -making Lidge the new closer -dropping Bagwell in the batting order -platooning Lamb with Ensberg -giving Chavez more playing time -dropping Redding from the rotation -adding Munro/Hernandez/Duckworth to the rotation -firing Jimy Williams/pitching coach/hitting coach -hiring Phil Garner/new pitching coach/new hitting coach All of these moves fall under 'minor adjustments' in my book, and none have made a significant change during the season. Why would a few more of the same caliber change anything in the offseason? No no, my friend, this team needs wholesale, Tmac-for-3/5's-our-starting-lineup style changes. And Puedlfor, I completely agree that if Boras plays the @ss again and tries to get A-Rod $$$ for Beltran, wish them both the best of luck and escort them out the door. But remember, the market was depressed last year and could be even worse this year. Beltran can't possibly make a case of being better than Vlad Guerrero, so if he is willing to sign for similar $$$, I think the Astros can and should make the deal. Beltran is just too talented to let go without a serious fight. Even if it costs Berkman and Miller to keep him.
I would caution never to underestimate the case that Scott Boras can and will make for Beltran. While Beltran may not be as good a hitter as Vlad, he does play good defense in centerfield - which adds to his value - and don't believe for a second Boras won't use that to pump up his asking price. With the three big money teams all needing CFers - we're likely to get outbid for his services - so we should resign ourselves to not resigning Beltran.
I know, but since the Yankees and others actually have something to look forward to in October, I still get to dream about Beltran guarding Tal's Hill for the next decade for at least another 6 weeks. 3 months from now, when Beltran signs with the Yankees, I will shed a tear and move on.
No other everyday player has trade value, so I was curious if the Stros were to shop him could they get multiple quality players/prospects that can help immediately and will it help them(financially) resign Beltran.
A. In case you didn't notice, Beltran is also a 30-30, Gold Glove-caliber CF with a career average around .290. Probably top 3 CF in all of baseball, along with AJones and Edmonds. Lane is older, slower, less-experienced, etc...he's not going to steal 30 bases, save any runs with defense, score from 2nd on a single to left, or any of the other thousand things Beltran does on the field that Lane can only dream about. B. Berkman, while possibly our best hitter as far as getting on base, is not necessarily our best hitter, and DEFINITELY not our best overall player. As I said, I rate Carlos in the top 3 at his position. I don't think Lance rates top 3 at any position. Let's break it down by the standard 5 tools (glove, speed, contact, power, and arm): Power - Edge>Beltran...Carlos has 15 HR (30 total) in less than half a season with the Stros, while Berkman has 18 the entire year, so at least this year Beltran has been the better power hitter. Glove - Edge>Beltran...No contest. Lance tries hard, but he is never going to be the home-run-stealing highlight reel that Beltran is in center. Speed - Edge>Beltran...Again, no contest. 30 SB again this year makes Carlos the clear winner. Contact - Edge>Berkman...Has higher career BA and OBP, so Lance clearly has the edge here. Arm - Edge>Beltran...While Carlos is not a Guillen, Ichiro or Guerrero, he has an excellent arm for a centerfielder. Lance, on the other hand, has a good arm for a first-basemen. Beltran is the man. Lance is a slugging first-baseman playing outfield. A nice player, and a nice guy, but certainly no Beltran.
I disagree. Berkman, and not close either. Just because he got pitched around all the damn time earlier in the year doesn't mean he doesn't have power. Also, the edge to Berkman on plate discipline.
I said that Berkman was the better contact hitter...i.e. has the better plate discipline. As for power, I know Berkman had a 42 HR season already, which Beltran has never come close to. But Carlos had more HR last year than Lance (26 to 25), and he has 17 as an Astro in only 202 ABs, compared to Lance's 19 in 409 ABs. How can you possibly make the case that Lance has been the better power hitter over the past two years? I'm not denying that in batting practice, Lance has far more raw power in his swing than Beltran, but as it has not translated onto the field for the better part of two seasons, I think that is irrelevant in determining who is the better PLAYER. I mean, as an Astro, Carlos has 2 less HR in LESS THAN HALF THE AT-BATS Berkman has! That means if Carlos had been here all year, and gotten the same 409 ABs as an Astro that Lance has, he would have roughly 34 HRs to Lance's 19. Not suprisingly, he has a standing total of 32, proving that he has consistently been a better power hitter than Lance this year. Combine that with last year, and I think it is safe to say Carlos is the more productive power hitter. And don't even talk about getting pitched around as Lance's excuse...the first half of the year Beltran hit 15 HRs in the KC Royals lineup. Last time I checked, the Royals (with the exception of Mike Sweeney) have absolutely NO protection in their lineup, while Berkman has Kent, Bagwell and had Hidalgo. So, if you are going to make the case that Berkman is a better power hitter WHEN THE SWINGS COUNT (as opposed to BP), I think you are going to have to do better than "because he got pitched around all the damn time earlier in the year" because Carlos had even less protection in KC than Lance did in Houston.
Hey Puedlfor, Now that Beltran has actually tied Berkman and Bags for the team lead in LESS THAN HALF A SEASON, do you care to retract your statement about Berkman's power vs. Beltran's power? How can a guy who has produced an equal number of bombs in less than half the at-bats of the other be the inferior power hitter, much less "and not close either"? If you ask me, the only thing that isn't close is 35 and 20. That's not even close. With a hot September, Beltran might surpass Berkman's career-best 42, which would close the debate for me.
Nope, I still contend that Berkman has better raw power than Beltran - And has been pitched around far more than Beltran - consider the amount of walks Berkman has been issued compared to Beltran - also "while Berkman has Kent, Bagwell and had Hidalgo." Come on now - Bagwell has been sub-par and Hidalgo was nearly out-hit by our pitchers - neither had any protection, yet they continued to pitch around Berkman far more than Beltran. All of a sudden, Beltran comes to the Astros - and hits ahead of Berkman for the most part - and now he has an explosion of power - meanwhile - who protects Berkman in the lineup? nobody, so he continues to get little to hit, and takes an incredible amount of walks. I would argue that these are seperate skill-sets and that it's very possible to not be a great contact hitter, but have exceptional plate-discipline, and vice-versa ex : Ichiro is a great contact hitter, but he doesn't take a lot of walks, thus I wouldn't say he has great plate discipline.
My point is raw power is useless unless it translates to the field. Watching Ryan Leaf throw a football is a beautiful thing...on the practice field. In a game, it is useless, and therefore irrelevant. While I do agree that Lance could 'out-drive' Beltran in BP, since it hasn't translated when needed, it is irrelevant. Speaking of Ichiro, I've heard in BP he can drive the ball as well as anyone on the team. But since he is an entirely different player when the swings count, I don't consider him a 'power' hitter. Also, about the protection, what about the 15 homers Beltran had before he ever showed up? That's only 5 less than Lance has managed all year in a lineup that is at least as good as the Royals (much better IMO), and Beltran did it in less than half a year. At the time of the trade, I believe Berkman had something like 11 or 12, so even before he had Lance's protection Beltran was still outslugging him. And what about last year, when Lance had a full year of the good Bagwell, a red-hot Hidalgo, decent Kent, and suprising Ensberg and still hit one less HR than Beltran? Who was protecting Beltran last year when he out-slugged Berkman? Certainly nothing near the quartet of Bagwell-Kent-Hidalgo-Ensberg, right? How can you explain that (unless you think the Royals had a better lineup around Beltran than the Stros had around Berkman, which I don't)?
I think we all agree that Lance had a down year last year power wise - though he still got on board at a good clip. I would say that Beltran is a much freer swinger than Berkman, less disciplined - so he swings at pitches that Lance will let pass - and while Beltran will get more home runs out of it - his batting average suffers for it. And that contributes to the fact that pitchers will be more willing to pitch to Beltran, because he'll take worse swings than Lance - despite Lance's superior, and I use the term loosely, protection. I think I'm starting to talk in circles, so I'll make my point - I think Berkman has more power, because if he swung as freely as Beltran does, I think he'd hit more homers than Beltran - but because he has greater plate discipline, he doesn't swing at as many pitches he could drive, but instead draws an incredible amount of walks and gets on base at a ridiculous clip.
This is just inaccurate. Berkman throughout his career will hit quite a few home runs, but he will also have a large impact on the offense by being able to get on base at critical times. He'll walk a lot and also will get singles and doubles by hitting pitches that are not in his wheelhouse. Pitchers will be a lot less likely to throw one Berkman can drive. Plus Beltran is a lot more likely to swing at a pitch he has no chance of hitting. Berkman brings a different dimension to the offense. It isn't just AL pinball baseball.
P and Ref, I understand what both of you are saying...and I agree with almost all of it. But you speak of Berkman as if he is in the Bonds/Thome class of selective power. Not to say that any mortal can compare to Bonds nowadays, but even a guy like Thome (granted he strikes out more) manages to get on base with his eye at the plate while still producing prodigious power numbers (50+ HR). If homers don't do it for you, just look at SLG% over the last two years... Berkman 2003 .515 2004 .538 Beltran 2003 .522 Gap (522-515)=.007% 2004 .569 Gap (569-538)=.031% Don't make this into an OBP/OPS/BA battle...because Berkman wins hands down. But Beltran is the better slugger now. Talking in terms of 'power' numbers, I'd say most would agree Home Runs and Slugging % are options 1A and 1B for comparing players' slugging power. Over the past two years Beltran has owned Berkman in these two categories, and what's more, the gap seems to be WIDENING. Seeing the same two-year trend with both is conclusive evidence for me. Beltran's power is just starting to blossom, while Berkman's seems to have peaked and regressed in favor of a better On-Base numbers. Which is great for Lance and the Astros. But Beltran is the big thumper in our lineup now. Lance is more of the table-setter. Any way, I've said my peace. The numbers speak for themselves.
