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[B-Ref] MVP Probabilities 2018-2019

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by lnchan, Jan 24, 2019.

  1. malakas

    malakas Member

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    That's just false.
    http://www.nba.com/article/2018/04/...rs-lead-most-popular-merchandise-list-2017-18
    Giannis last season had the no.4 top selling jersey, Harden was no.9.
    Bucks were no.6 in merchandise sales, Rockets were no.10.

    Blame the chinese style tableclothes that passes for Rockets jerseys these days.
     
    BigMaloe, Reeko and J.R. like this.
  2. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist
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    That's so weird, I had opened an article with the exact same headline to check those figures. Must have been an older version or my eyes playing tricks. Thanks for the correction.
     
    malakas likes this.
  3. PersianRocket

    PersianRocket Member

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    Looking at Harden's stats:

    Out of the top 6 people right now based on Basketball Reference's predictions:

    Harden ranks:
    1st in PPG
    1st in APG
    6th in RPG
    2nd in SPG
    3rd in BPG
    2nd in 3p%
    5th in 2p%
    2nd in FT%
    3rd in eFG%
    1st in PER
    3rd in TS%
    2nd in TO% (not a good thing)
    1st in AST%
    5th in DWS
    1st in OWS
    2nd in TWS
    1st in BPM
    1st in VORP
    6th in ORTG
    Tied for 6th in DRTG
     
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  4. J Sizzle

    J Sizzle Member

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    And yet…the wins aren’t there in comparison to his other MVP contender. Harden is the best player in the league this season but the Rockets as a team have failed him this season.
     
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  5. PersianRocket

    PersianRocket Member

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    Yeah I agree. IMO he is the MVP if you take the words Most Valuable Player very literal. Take Giannis off the Bucks, and they're still a playoff team (not a contender but still a competitor). Same with KD, same with PG, same with Kawhi. Only one you can argue makes as big of a difference is maybe Jokic, and even he has an incredibly deep team around him. Take Harden off the Rockets.... we're bottom feeders. Even with the shell of CP, his injuries would just make us worse. We'd be running a starting 5 of Austin Rivers, EG, Green, Tucker, and Faried for majority of the season, and that is a disgusting idea.

    EDIT: Never finished what my OG point was lol.

    Giannis is the MVP this year so far. Doing incredible things, winning, and is only 24. I'm fine with it. He's a likable guy and after seeing the Finding Giannis special and reading up on him more, I've become a Giannis supporter. I'd rather have him take the MVP from Harden than previous years with Westbrook and Curry. Hopefully the Rockets turn things around and start winning more when Capela is healthy. Maybe that boosts Harden's chances.
     
  6. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    If the team was better, likely Harden's stats - at least any that are "volume" related, or carrying the team related - aren't there.

    If the Rockets had the same record as the Bucks right not, with Giannis playing as he's playing, it's still probably Giannis #1, Harden #2 at the moment.

    Harden's obviously crazy good. But so is Giannis.

    Now Harden with these stats, and say the Rockets finish 20-5 to go 53-29, and finish 3rd or better... and the Bucks "limp" home at 15-10 and finish 58-24, then I think Harden is #1. But that seems unlikely. The Bucks have a relatively easy SOS remaining, and the Rockets are 6 games behind Denver and 4 behind OKC (who doesn't appear like they'll "slow down" since they can always rely on their defense).
     
  7. bulkatron

    bulkatron Member

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    Whether or not he deserves it, Harden isn't going to win this year. The narrative has been written.

    "Giannis is winning with his post dominance"
    "Harden is a ball hog chasing stats"

    Etc...

    Don't get your hopes up for the MVP. Instead, get your hopes up for a deep playoff run and pretend it's 1995 again.

    Life is so disappointing sometimes :(
     
  8. PhiSlammaJamma

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    It's time to undercut his reputation. We pay our PR team to get dirty at times. And this is one of those times.
     
  9. Stepback3GOOD

    Stepback3GOOD Member

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    why should we get our hopes up for the playoffs. Did you not see how the refs screwed us out of a finals appearance last year. The NBA is just a bad product, i only watch for harden
     
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  10. bulkatron

    bulkatron Member

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    I was at game 7, and want my money back after that ref job.

    That being said, we have a shot as long as we have Beard
     
  11. mfastx

    mfastx Member
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    Objectively, Harden should have won in '17. That is according to the basketball reference mvp tracker in the OP, which is objective.
     
  12. Deuce

    Deuce Context & Nuance

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    BB Ref's MVP tool pulls HEAVILY on TEAM WINS. Bucks have the most wins. Bucks are #1 in the East and #1 in the NBA.

    Harden can't catch those wins. His best bet is to "close the win gap" to the point where his STATS and the Historic Nature of his stats has more "narrative sway" than Team Wins.
     
  13. lnchan

    lnchan Sugar Land Leonard

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    Before the 61 point performance against the Spurs:

    [​IMG]
    I have a really hard time accepting 1) Anthony Davis will be in the top 10 and 2) Lebron James not being in the top 10. Other observations, Harden's probability of winning hasn't moved much, and Giannis continues to have a 50+% probability. Only Jokic clears 5% as the field as cleared a bit.
     
  14. J Sizzle

    J Sizzle Member

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    Damn shame Giannis is going to win. Damn shame.
     
  15. Handles

    Handles Member

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    I don't care what basketball reference says. I don't care what Vegas odds say. I don't care what casual NBA fans say.

    I'd put money on it that Harden will win the MVP this year. He will not be denied. Giannis' name is thrown around to keep things interesting, but anyone who knows two licks about basketball knows that Harden has it on lock.
     
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  16. lnchan

    lnchan Sugar Land Leonard

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    You assume that the voters know two licks about basketball. Voters include Reggie Miller, Ramona Shelburne, Chris Broussard, Brian Windhorst.

    Last year's voters.
    https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/wp-co...NBA-Most-Valuable-Player-Voter-Selections.pdf
     
    #36 lnchan, Mar 23, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2019
    Earnie Banks likes this.
  17. Handles

    Handles Member

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    I know what you're saying, I hear you. My "two licks" comment maybe not so much on point. Majority of clutchfans members know more basketball than guys like windbag.

    But I do believe Harden will win MVP and I'd put money on that. The man won't be denied. I can't wait until Tuesday's Bucks game. It'll have so much weight in how media heads vote.
     
    BigShasta, roslolian and lnchan like this.
  18. pippendagimp

    pippendagimp Member

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    watch foster show up on tuesday @ MIL :D
     
  19. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    Harden can officially seal the deal on Tuesday

    this thing should be wrap right now anyways, but Harden probably has to do a little more in order to sway the more dumb voters who are still leaning towards Giannis

    please end this MVP convo on Tuesday Harden so we can toss Greek Freak’s MVP resume in the trash where it belongs
     
    Handles and RichieBanks like this.
  20. scolandry1

    scolandry1 Member

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    #40 scolandry1, Mar 23, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2019
    slothy420 likes this.

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