Astros Trade option(s)

I don't disagree that Gray would be an upgrade. I just do not see him being worth a package similar (better?) to what the Rangers gave up for Cole Hamels.

To be clear, I desperately think we need another starting pitcher. But if THAT is the market, then I will start to find some common ground with the "stay put" crowd.

 

You might be right, I hope not because he is my favorite player.....but if given the choice of adding Cueto now, or keeping Springer long term, sign me up for George

Outside of our personal opinions on this and just looking at what Luhnow would more likely do, I don't see Cueto as a guy we would go after. I just don't see him giving up big prospects for a guy that could be a rental, or could come with a big price tag for several years, and that being totally out of our control. Just doesn't seem like a Luhnow move

 

^^This^^

 

But at what point does actual results mean more, or at least as much, as advanced stats? Gray has "produced" an ERA north of 5 for 181 2/3 innings, that's a lot of innings of being terrible. Shouldn't the results start coming in by that point? Maybe he "looks" better or "should be" better soon, but 4 of his last 6 outings have been bad.

Again, as i've said, i'd take Sonny Gray in our rotation, and hope that our guys can get the results from him. But giving up two of our top 4 prospects, but 3 more promising arms, for a guy who has struggled for so long....count me out on that. I would much rather trade a lesser package for a couple of good bullpen arms and move Devo into the rotation

 

I think there are 4 ways a Cueto trade could work:

1. The Giants negotiate with Cueto to void his option to opt out. This lets the acquiring team know they are getting Cueto for 4 more years with $80M+ on his deal; in this scenario SF would probably have to eat some money to get anything good back.

2. The Giants negotiate with Cueto to void the remaining 4 years of his deal making him a free agent after this season. Cueto's remaining 2017 salary would have to be drastically increased for him to agree to do it, but it would give the acquiring team certainty that they are buying a rental. Again, in this scenario SF still may have to eat some money in order to get a good return (depending on how much Cueto demands to shorten his deal).

3. There is a built-in PTBNL attached to the trade that will be determined based on whether Cueto opts out. If he opts out (which meant he was good over the 2nd half), the PTBNL would be $1; if he doesn't opt out (which meant he sucked or got hurt over the 2nd half), then the PTBNL becomes one of SF best prospects. This provides the acquiring team some insurance in case Cueto goes bust and becomes an albatross.

4. A team just says "f it" and is willing to acquire him with the uncertainty of whether he will opt out or not. I consider this pretty unlikely.

 

Option 5. A team buys an insurance policy of Cueto to mitigate receiving team's risk. Depending on who pays for the insurance policy affects which prospects are in the deal.

 

Just looking at stats, no idea on contracts, I'm surprised no one has mentioned one of the Cards pitchers. What about Martinez, Leake, or even Lynn. They are struggling in a division that is pretty good, and we can give them some prospects they were wanting to steal from us anyways. If I'm way off on these guys for some reason please let me know.

 

Strikeouts are not advanced stats. He's averaging 1/IP, which is a very good ratio and indicative of a pitcher that can get hitters out. Add a better defense...

He was hurt last year; started this season on the DL. His FIP is a run better (4.29) though. Big issue with him the past two years (beyond health): .320 BABIP, which is higher than league average and might, at least to some degree, be attributable to a bad defense.

I'll be honest - I was focused more on the Sonny Gray hasn't been good in two years part; I wasn't really endorsing the deal, per se (although I didn't find it too lopsided - if you want a quality, dirt cheap young pitcher, you're going to have to pay).

The Astros are more likely to move Jeff Bagwell to 3B than Devenski into the rotation... I'd be down with getting a few bullpen arms but, again; the issue for me is health. Less than a week ago, we had four starters on the DL, three of whom were on the DL for extended stays last year. I think they have to prioritize finding arms to supplement the unpredictable rotation.

 

Bc nobody trusts anyone associated with those Nazi's. Every player, coach, or person that works for them could potentially be an undercover informant.

 

Gray has tremendous value: he's 27, dirt cheap with a high probability of getting better. Hamels - granted, a better pitcher (although not by much: 106 ERA+ at time o the trade v. 93 ERA+ for Gray) - was four years older and 50 times more expensive.

 

I'd say advanced stats are actual results as well. ERA is a blend of hitter, pitcher, and defense that usually isn't very representative of a pitcher's value with one season's worth of data. For being predictive of future performances, I've seen it takes about 3 years for starters (about 600 innings) to have their ERA be more predictive of future ERA than FIP and xFIP.

Gray over his last 602.2 innings: 3.64 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 3.67 xFIP (I should say this is a lot closer than I expected it would be)
Gray's current numbers this season: 4.45 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 3.40 xFIP
I wouldn't worry about his ERA being higher than his FIP, xFIP this year.

Last year, he battled injuries and his ERA was well above FIP, xFIP. I can see being worried about his performance while he is not healthy.

 

Lynn has poor peripherals, injury issues, and will be a free agent soon. Leake has a decent chunk of money left on his deal (48 mill and 3 years plus a 5 mill buyout). And I doubt they're even thinking about trading Martinez (young, under contract through 2021 with team options for '22 and '23, Cards want to consistently compete) with Lynn about to leave in FA and Wainwright on his last legs.

 

Here are the Astros starters you can theoretically reasonably depend on being healthy in Sep/Oct:

Mike Fiers

Here are the Astros starters you have to wonder about their health or durability, next start/week/month/plus...:

Keuchel
McCullers
Peacock
Morton
McHugh

There is no trade that would help this team more than a starter, even if there's not an "ace" available. A Kazmir-type deal would work. Talking about LF/DH/1B/BS is just asinine.

Hoyt is the weak link in the pen, I have faith that will get fixed.

 

Forgetting about last year, he has 5 quality starts in 11 outings this year

Hoyt strikes out a lot of guys too, but I didn't want him in the game tonight

I'll just have to agree to be on the opposite side of most of y'all regarding Gray, I want someone who is consistently successful

Funny thing is, if he pitched for the Astros this year and had the same results, a large majority of people on here would be trying to figure out how to replace him

 

How about the last 6 starts, 4 of which have been really bad. 55 base runners in 35 innings.

As I said earlier, if he was pitching for us and had the same results he has had, we would be trying to replace him

If we do trade for him I hope all of y'all are right, I just want someone who is successful right now, not someone we "think" should get better....not if we are giving up prime prospects

I'll shut up about Gray now and quietly hope he isn't our target

 

Have those first two scenarios EVER happened?

On #4, that is possible, but can't see Luhnow being the one to do so

 

I could get behind a trade for Leake

But the chances of us and the Cards getting together on a deal has to be extremely low

 

No, the first 2 scenarios have never happened and are both unlikely. But opt outs are a relatively new phenomenon. I was just presenting a potential solution to a complex problem.

 

His last six starts only look bad if you look at stats that are heavily influenced by the hitters. Over his last 5 starts, his ERA is better than average for the AL with 3 or less earned runs given up in all but one start if you believe in ERA, earned runs in that short a time span. Over his first 5 starts, he was awesome in ERA. All his games, but one really bad start and his ERA is 3.75. Bad starts happen and they are going to heavily influence stats like ERA in the short term.

Over a significant sample size, he has shown his ERA will regress to FIP and xFIP provided he's healthy. You can not trust Sonny Gray all you want. Just know, that he's been great for the season in ERA, FIP, xFIP, and SIera excluding one horrible game. Looking at ERA estimators...that bad start does not appear representative of his true talent level. The game happened so I wouldn;t throw out the data. I would be leery of using any heavility hitter influenced stat though in the short term to try to predict what he will be. I can't guarantee his ERA will regress to his xFIP, but odds are that it will the farther he gets away from that one game.

 

When you say one game are you talking about the 5 run game against us? The 7 run game against Cleveland? The 5 run game against Tampa? I'm not sure which "one" game of the last six you are referring to

And yes I know that sometimes runs are out of his control. Maybe a reliever came in and let some inherited score...

So forgetting about runs...his last outing vs CWS was good, the three before that

7 hits and 4 bb in 5 innings
8 hits and 3 bb in 5.1
9 hits and 1 bb in 6 innings
4 hits and 3 bb in 7 innings (good start)
9 hits and 2 bb in 4.1 innings

That's 10+ base runners (not counting errors) in 4 of the past 5 games and not in extended outings. 50 base runners allowed in 27.2 innings

If you want to argue the advanced stats say he is about to magically get better that's fine, and if we give up a big haul for him I certainly hope you are right and I'll cheer for him

But don't try to say he has been pitching well and is having a good season outside of ONE game, he has been a bad pitcher....