The AL West rival Astros and Athletics are mutually interested in making a trade that would involve Oakland right-hander Sonny Gray, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. The last-place A’s have been closely monitoring the Astros’ system, per Cafardo, during a period in which Houston’s four best starters (Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, Charlie Morton and Collin McHugh) are on the disabled list. Gray, who would likely slot in third in a healthy Astros rotation, is only running a 4.44 ERA through 52 2/3 innings, but his secondary stats are encouraging and he’s under control via arbitration through 2019. As such, he’d warrant a strong return for the A’s.
I figured Samardzija would have some value to us as an innings eater who we can count on to give us a quality 6 innings every day and he'd cost less from a prospect standpoint than the others.
he's prone to getting smashed periodically. Had a 7+ ERA in his first 4 starts this year. Had an 8-start run last June-August with a 7 ERA. He's solid, just streaky. Rather than "consistent quality 6"
Start with Martes and add 2 prospects from the next tier (Paulino, Musgrove, Whitley, F Perez, Fisher, Reed, Moran, Davis, Teoscar).
If I was Oakland, and I was really interested in making a trade, I would do so quickly. Every start paulino makes or martes makes has the ability to affect the gray price in several ways. Paulino is going up prospect lists as we speak with the way he is performing. Fisher and martes may soon do the same. It also lessens the Astros need for another starter. At some point, after a certain number of starts and productivity, a pitcher moves from prospect to good, young, cheap major leaguers. About 4 more quality starts and paulino wouldn't get traded straight up for gray, much less in combination With anyone else. Same could be said for martes and Fisher depending how they perform.
Would not be excited about acquiring Sonny Gray. If we are going to give up prospects, then I want someone good. Not impressed with Gray.
Plus at this rate he'll be off the lists based on innings. Paulino has exceeded my expectations but they were pretty low. I think he's performed commensurate to his prospect status.
You make his first 4 starts this year sound bad. Considering non-top 10 pitching prospects are busts over 50% of the time and expected values are usually well less than an average MLB starter, seeing his stuff line up with projections outside of innings and homers is a very good sign. His FIP and xFIP are about as close to AL average for starters as you can get.
Just looking at the A's staff, this guy looks like a better target than Sonny Gray. He also owns the Astros. http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/33244/sean-manaea
Manaea is younger, cheaper and controllable for longer. He would cost way more than Gray and I don't see the A's trading him unless someone offers a crazy deal (Like Bregman, Martes, Tucker)
MArtes, Paulino, and Fisher have not had any significant change in value since their promotions. It would take at least 10 starts with extreme results (whether good or bad) before their value would change in any meaningful way. For Fisher, it'll come take 40 games to make any change in his projection. Neither of those things will happen before the trade deadline.
It takes about 60 PAs to get a read on K% for a hitter. A bad K% not likely a big deal as Fisher just being exposed to majors. If Fisher has a K% of 25 or less after 60 PAs, his stock likely sky rockets as that is his biggest perceived weakness offensively. Can't impact defensive projection in short term. On Paulino, I doubt he's changed his ceiling, but health appears only obstacle that could keep him from at least being a bad reliever. I'd expect he's upped his expected value by a win. That won't make him a headliner for a big deal, but likely would impact quality of "throw-ins". Not sure if people consider that significant, though. Martes has different issues and don't think his value changes much unless he starts stringing together long high quality starts.
I want to trust we won't give up the farm for someone like Sonny Gray, but then again, Lose-now did trade Santana and Hader for Gomez and Fiers... The more I think about it, the more I want Luhnow to go after an elite bullpen arm, maybe Yonder Alonso, and that's it. We have Keuchel, McCullers, Morton, McHugh, Musgrove, Fiers, Peacock, Martes, Paulino all who have shown an ability to pitch well. Some, like Martes for example, even flash as being great. Why give up guys like Tucker or Martes to deepen a rotation that is already deep? And it's not like the top of our rotation is underwhelming - this year it's the best in the league.
