Astros can win the Wild Card with this team but ...

First of all, the argument wasn't that St. Louis has an inferior lineup - it's that it it nothing like last year. Last year, they scored 5.3 runs a game - this year, 5.0 Second, their record is also due to the fact that they have the best ERA in all of baseball. They are a great team, but not as good as last year. And while you may not be willing to admit it and just say we're playing over our heads, we're pretty damn good too.

As far as not winning in St Louis, did the Rockets inability to beat San Antonio in '95 just have you write off the Rockets? Those kinds of "trends" are just silly. This year, we've lost 6 games in St Louis, three of which were by 1 run, another by 2 runs, and the remaining two by 3 runs. I don't think this team has any doubt they can win in St. Louis - they just haven't done so yet. Our team has a far better home record than StL so if we can win our home games, all it takes is ONE game on the road. You really believe this team is incapable of going 1-3 vs. StL on the road?

As for the St. Louis record, here it is:

April: 15-7
May: 18-11
June: 16-11
July: 14-8

Here's our record:

April: 9-13
May: 10-19
June: 16-9
July: 19-6

We've played better than St. Louis for 2 full months now. Why people continue to think that's a fluke is beyond me.

 

that theory is definitely put to the test with Pujols batting four times a game. You can't stop him, you can only hope to contain him.

not to mention, edmonds, rolen, or that little b@stard catcher that hits a home run every 200 (?) at bats unless it's a game winning opportunity against the stros.

I'll take a deal that puts Manny(wishful, but WS champs if we did it) or Helton , or to a slightly lesser extent, Dunn or Ibanez, in a Stros uni. Hun could make the deals and Purp hopefully can too.

if we don't do a deal for a bat - we have Pettitte this year - and that's HUGE.

Do it!!!

 

These games against the Mets will tell a lot, can we win against a good team when we have our lessor pitchers on the mound?


As for St. Louis, I disagree, we can beat them....heck, we almost beat them last year without Pettite.

GO STROS !!

DD

 

LOOK AT YOU!!!! My boy's all grows up!!!! All optimistic and crap!!!

 

For Wandy's start, I agree. For Astacio's start, I do not.

 

If the Stros have a magical year, avoid major injuries, and our 3 aces continue to pitch lights out, we can beat anyone. It's that simple. The 3 games in St. Louis didn't discourage me at all; they proved we can play with them. If we meet the Cards in the playoffs and our pitchers are on, the games will be close and clutch hitting will make the difference.

There are a lot of ifs. The Cards are better than us but we could beat them in a 7 game series with timely hitting. If we trade for a bat, that would help our chances. The NL is wide open this year because the Cards' lineup isn't nearly as good.

 

Very nice!

 

Three of those losses in July were to St. Louis, in rout to a series sweep and we've lost like the last nine games against st. louis in st. louis, and we are a terrible road team, etc.

 

We're 18-11 in our last 29 road games. Two of the St. Louis games after the All-Star game could've just as easily been Astros wins. It's not like we lost 11-0 each game.

 

This might be a little (or a lot) out there, but with St. Louis struggling right now (3-5 in their last 8 with the decimated lineup).. if we can get to within 4 games or so by September - we're 9.5 out now and have made up 4 games in the last 10 days) .... we have 5 games left against them in September. The division could be stolen.

It would take a mini-miracle, but who would have expected us to be near the wild card lead in July?

 

man, i'm psyched!!! get your butt to Houston so we can go to a game together!!!

 

I need to do that! Scheduling has been a pain in the ass with a bunch of stuff going on here, but I'm definitely planning on it some time! I'll be in town the weekend of Aug. 13th ... perhaps I skip RM95's wedding and just go to the game.

 

yeah, i'm sure he'd be cool with that. no big deal!

 

LOL! I've been slowly watching that division race, and it is within reach of the Astros if they continue their pace. Currently the Cards are 9.5 games ahead of us, but they've also played 5 more games at home then they have on the road... which could easily makes us up 2-3 games in the standings. The Astros have the best record in baseball since late may, that is over two freaking months which is far from a fluke. It will take some amazing pitching and clutch hitting like last night and last year to steal the division but the fact that there is even a chance in August is all I could ever dream of after the start they had. Zeke's last two starts have been great, and Wandy has been a huge suprise... if those two (and Backe) can win 60-70% of their decisions we have a great chance to steal it all.

 

Not a fluke. They've played slightly better the last two months than St. Louis. Key differences I see are that St. Louis has had the division locked up during that time and hasn't had any sense of urgency, and they've been beaten up. Also, during this incredible stretch, the Cardinals still swept the Astros. And who was on the mound for that sweep? Pettitte/Oswalt/Clemens.

 

The way we are playing now, I think we can beat anyone. Everything is clicking right now. I would love to see a NLCS re-match with the Cards this season. But let's get the wild card first, lol. This team's turnaround has been amazing, totally amazing. I thought they were dead in the water early in the season, but they and the A's have totally turned things around. Just goes to show that baseball really is a marathon, not a sprint.

 

The people that think the Cards are a sure bet winner over the Astros are the same ones who thought we had NO CHANCE after the first couple of weeks of the season... anotherwords, they don't know what the hell they are talking about. Our pitching staff is easily better then theirs with the exception of a lefty out of the pen, and in the playoffs that is what counts the most. Better pitching always beats better hitting in the playoffs... see Arizona, California and Florida.

 

I wouldn't go so far as to say they don't know what they're talking about.

It's not so cut-and-dried, although I share your optimistic outlook.

There are as many examples of good pitching getting beat in the playoffs, and sadly enough for Astros fans, several of them are from Astros' history.

1998: RJ, Shane Reynolds, Hampton, and Lima. Not too shabby. RJ lost twice.
1999: Two 20-game winners. One win--by the guy who *didn't* win 20 games.
2004: Roger Clemens and Roy O. Roger in Game 7, are you kidding me?

There are non-Astros examples, too. Hopefully 2005 plays out a touch differenlty.

 

I'm pretty excited about the Stros and have to remind myself to never doubt Phil Garner again!

That said lets worry about securing a playoff spot first before looking to meeting the Cards. If we do meet the Cards I'm very concerned. While they're not as good hitting they are a lot better pitching this year and as so many have noted pitching wins series. To beat the Cards we gotta play phenomenally. One of the things I'm worried about is that while we've lost some great hitters we've also lost experience and are counting on younger players like Taveras to come up big for us. Plus with Backe hurt our pitching beyond our top three is shaky.

I love the Stros and the run they're making but trying to keep expectations in perspective. After looking like we were dead last year we had a miraculous run. I'm amazed we can do it again another year. I think looking forward to an NLCS against the Cards or a World Series is distracting from the amazing play of the Stros now.

 

Our bullpen lost us the series with the Cards last year, and this year we've fixed most of those holes (minus a lefty)... not to mention we have a healthy and improving Andy Pettitte. In response to the other things I wouldn't call Reynolds and Lima great pitchers, even in their primes... as far as 1999 goes, the Padres had an amazing staff too... Kevin Brown was a stud, the best of his career. We lost those years mostly because of our lack of offense. I'm not making excuses just trying to say if we continue on our current pace or close to it and Oswalt, Clemens and Pettitte are healthy we'll be tough to beat. Either way, the season isn't over let's try to run them down so they have to play the Braves in the first round rather then the Padres. Could be a blessing in disguise like Denver over Seattle.