1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

About the supposed bad luck or rigged lottery

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by CarlosGM, May 17, 2023.

  1. CarlosGM

    CarlosGM Member

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2019
    Messages:
    350
    Likes Received:
    578
    I’m a bit of an excel nerd, and a Rockets fan, so I run 1.000 scenarios simulating the outcome of the 2021-2023 lottery based on the actual odds the Rockets had for each year, also taking into account our chances of losing the 2021 pick to the Thunder. This is the average number of picks we should expect between the 3 drafts.

    1st pick: average number of 1st picks: 0,44. Actual 1st obtained: 0 (bad luck, but we had more chances of not getting any, than getting 1 or more).

    Number of top 2 picks (either 1st or 2nd). Average: 0,81. We obtained 1. We were lucky.

    Number of top 3 picks: Average: 1,19. We obtained 2. We were very lucky.

    Number of top 4 picks: Average: 1,55. We obtained 3. We were very lucky.

    Number of top 5 picks: Average 2,31. We obtained 3.

    So, we were not unlucky in the tank. It’s just a matter of perception
     
    Hive5, TheJet, Zen Tabak and 16 others like this.
  2. Yung-T

    Yung-T Member

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2009
    Messages:
    24,403
    Likes Received:
    7,049
    I said it before, ppl don't understand statistics or are extremely biased in this topic.

    People also conveniently leave out how Zion went to the Pelicans instead of Knicks, KAT to Minnesota instead of Lakers, Edwards to Minny instead of Warriors, Knicks having terrible luck in 2006 and losing out vs Toronto etc, there are more examples of huge market and iconic franchises not getting the first pick vs small market teams.

    And then the one draft a team they dislike wins it, suddenly the NBA is supposedly rigged and "it's always like that".
     
    lakersuck2, TheJet, IvanLCPM and 13 others like this.
  3. DreamShook

    DreamShook Member

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2008
    Messages:
    70,999
    Likes Received:
    115,040
  4. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    9,309
    Likes Received:
    12,425
    I said Portland with Spurs as a sleeper way before the draft.

    Many called Spurs at mid season because of The French Connection of
    Tony Parker - Wembanyama

    Keep your stats, the ping pongs have a computer chip in them changing
    those logos.......until the NBA makes the drawing public again, it's rigged.
     
    Rocket River, Caesar, amaru and 10 others like this.
  5. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2006
    Messages:
    90,597
    Likes Received:
    43,611
    reported
     
    DreamShook likes this.
  6. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2006
    Messages:
    90,597
    Likes Received:
    43,611
  7. clos4life

    clos4life Member

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2007
    Messages:
    10,913
    Likes Received:
    11,867
    Holy crap, how rigged was the lottery? SA was coming out every pick!
     
  8. KingSamJack

    KingSamJack Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2013
    Messages:
    2,150
    Likes Received:
    2,581
    All you have to hope for is SA gets really good to fast and they can't put help around wemby
     
  9. pippendagimp

    pippendagimp Member

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2000
    Messages:
    27,074
    Likes Received:
    21,343
    lol i’ve been posting with hi conviction the past 6 months “wemby is not walking thru that door” coupled with “sperms most likely.” yesterday i reiterated that this would not be left to chance by hidden pingpong balls and i repeat again, as someone who comes from a family that was once a team minority owner and that also bid against tilfuk for this very franchise just a few years back — there are no happenstance coincidences behind the curtain
     
    Caesar, topfive, Richie_Rich and 3 others like this.
  10. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2006
    Messages:
    90,597
    Likes Received:
    43,611
    They have enough money to sign either Cam Johnson or Grant Williams as well.

    Or wait to trade for another All Star caliber dude.
     
  11. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2006
    Messages:
    90,597
    Likes Received:
    43,611
    Darn, your family is rich da gimp.
     
    Caesar, topfive and clos4life like this.
  12. Aruba77

    Aruba77 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 1999
    Messages:
    13,782
    Likes Received:
    14,994
    great post. I also think that the NBA has succeeded in flattening the lotto odds to the point where it’s a legit question on if a 3-year tanking strategy is likely to produce the franchise changing results that it did under the old system. Luck is now so much more a factor. I’m not sure tanking is the best way to rebuild a franchise. Granted I’m not sure there was much of an alternative, but I wonder how much the new lotto system factored into our rebuilding strategy. We got Jalen, Jabari and whomever we take #4 this year from tanking; and that’s beating the odds (remember that getting that Jalen pick from OkC was basically 50-50 odds) 3 yrs and no clear franchise player.

    All I can say is they better knock this pick out of the park.
     
    #12 Aruba77, May 17, 2023
    Last edited: May 17, 2023
    CarlosGM, Yung-T, CDrex and 1 other person like this.
  13. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2008
    Messages:
    18,464
    Likes Received:
    18,578
    What you're saying is we got a great overall return for 3 years of tanking, which I agree with. However there's nothing in your post to suggest it's not rigged.

    I was mocking people who called the draft rigged yesterday, but for the first time in 20 years I'm seriously reconsidering my position. Yes things COULD have played out this same way with random probabilities, but it's just a little too convenient. I'm a person who doesn't believe anything in the NBA is rigged except the few instances Donaghy proved. I never believed there was systemic rigging going on.

    I sense there's a possibility they rigged it in a way that looks natural. The way things unfold would not tell you if it's rigged or not.
     
    #13 Mathloom, May 17, 2023
    Last edited: May 17, 2023
    arabrocket, topfive and pmac like this.
  14. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2003
    Messages:
    59,014
    Likes Received:
    36,584
    Rockets weren't especially lucky and then compounded it by not drafting the top 2 or 3 players in their draft class.

    Oops.
     
  15. King713

    King713 Member

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2022
    Messages:
    269
    Likes Received:
    495
    Not every lottery is rigged. But you’d be foolish to think the Ewing one and the AD one when the league owned New Orleans wasn’t rigged. I’m sure there is a few other one with questionable results.
     
  16. RasaqBoi

    RasaqBoi Member

    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2007
    Messages:
    17,079
    Likes Received:
    20,704
    Did y’all not see what Wemby said and how he reacted ?

    he said the country wanted the Spurs to get #1 and he looked over real quick when he saw it was the Spurs. The guys been promised this **** forever.
     
    Rocket River, Caesar, amaru and 3 others like this.
  17. BamBam

    BamBam Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2003
    Messages:
    9,614
    Likes Received:
    9,770
    [​IMG]
    :(



    Go Rockets!!!
    .......
    .......
    .......
     
  18. Aruba77

    Aruba77 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 1999
    Messages:
    13,782
    Likes Received:
    14,994
    I’m sorry France ain’t dictating sh#t ;) They don’t have that kind of pull.
     
    KelvinCato13 and RasaqBoi like this.
  19. mac_got_this

    mac_got_this Member

    Joined:
    Feb 12, 2007
    Messages:
    9,192
    Likes Received:
    7,874
    Everybody knew Zion was goin to the Pels after they traded AD to the Lakers. I was so sure of it I bet it at my office pool and won $150. The lottery winner is predictable some years.
     
    Rocket River, Caesar and amaru like this.
  20. YaoMac09

    YaoMac09 Member

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2008
    Messages:
    4,902
    Likes Received:
    2,574
    NBA is entertainment. Never forget that.
     

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now