I’m a bit of an excel nerd, and a Rockets fan, so I run 1.000 scenarios simulating the outcome of the 2021-2023 lottery based on the actual odds the Rockets had for each year, also taking into account our chances of losing the 2021 pick to the Thunder. This is the average number of picks we should expect between the 3 drafts. 1st pick: average number of 1st picks: 0,44. Actual 1st obtained: 0 (bad luck, but we had more chances of not getting any, than getting 1 or more). Number of top 2 picks (either 1st or 2nd). Average: 0,81. We obtained 1. We were lucky. Number of top 3 picks: Average: 1,19. We obtained 2. We were very lucky. Number of top 4 picks: Average: 1,55. We obtained 3. We were very lucky. Number of top 5 picks: Average 2,31. We obtained 3. So, we were not unlucky in the tank. It’s just a matter of perception
I said it before, ppl don't understand statistics or are extremely biased in this topic. People also conveniently leave out how Zion went to the Pelicans instead of Knicks, KAT to Minnesota instead of Lakers, Edwards to Minny instead of Warriors, Knicks having terrible luck in 2006 and losing out vs Toronto etc, there are more examples of huge market and iconic franchises not getting the first pick vs small market teams. And then the one draft a team they dislike wins it, suddenly the NBA is supposedly rigged and "it's always like that".
I said Portland with Spurs as a sleeper way before the draft. Many called Spurs at mid season because of The French Connection of Tony Parker - Wembanyama Keep your stats, the ping pongs have a computer chip in them changing those logos.......until the NBA makes the drawing public again, it's rigged.
lol i’ve been posting with hi conviction the past 6 months “wemby is not walking thru that door” coupled with “sperms most likely.” yesterday i reiterated that this would not be left to chance by hidden pingpong balls and i repeat again, as someone who comes from a family that was once a team minority owner and that also bid against tilfuk for this very franchise just a few years back — there are no happenstance coincidences behind the curtain
They have enough money to sign either Cam Johnson or Grant Williams as well. Or wait to trade for another All Star caliber dude.
great post. I also think that the NBA has succeeded in flattening the lotto odds to the point where it’s a legit question on if a 3-year tanking strategy is likely to produce the franchise changing results that it did under the old system. Luck is now so much more a factor. I’m not sure tanking is the best way to rebuild a franchise. Granted I’m not sure there was much of an alternative, but I wonder how much the new lotto system factored into our rebuilding strategy. We got Jalen, Jabari and whomever we take #4 this year from tanking; and that’s beating the odds (remember that getting that Jalen pick from OkC was basically 50-50 odds) 3 yrs and no clear franchise player. All I can say is they better knock this pick out of the park.
What you're saying is we got a great overall return for 3 years of tanking, which I agree with. However there's nothing in your post to suggest it's not rigged. I was mocking people who called the draft rigged yesterday, but for the first time in 20 years I'm seriously reconsidering my position. Yes things COULD have played out this same way with random probabilities, but it's just a little too convenient. I'm a person who doesn't believe anything in the NBA is rigged except the few instances Donaghy proved. I never believed there was systemic rigging going on. I sense there's a possibility they rigged it in a way that looks natural. The way things unfold would not tell you if it's rigged or not.
Rockets weren't especially lucky and then compounded it by not drafting the top 2 or 3 players in their draft class. Oops.
Not every lottery is rigged. But you’d be foolish to think the Ewing one and the AD one when the league owned New Orleans wasn’t rigged. I’m sure there is a few other one with questionable results.
Did y’all not see what Wemby said and how he reacted ? he said the country wanted the Spurs to get #1 and he looked over real quick when he saw it was the Spurs. The guys been promised this **** forever.
Everybody knew Zion was goin to the Pels after they traded AD to the Lakers. I was so sure of it I bet it at my office pool and won $150. The lottery winner is predictable some years.