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A different perspective: Odds of lotto pick becoming Howard caliber vs Howard staying

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by meh, Jul 13, 2012.

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  1. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    I feel the general sentiment is that if the Rockets have to give up everything for Howard, then we're getting fleeced. I thought this at first too. But how about think of it a different way. Instead of looking at what we are giving up, think of how difficult it is to obtain a player of Howard's caliber via draft.

    To make a comparison, we look at how many game-changing, team-carrying superstars have been available for drafting.

    Lebron
    Wade
    Chris Paul
    Howard
    Tim Duncan
    Derrick Rose
    Kevin Durant

    Using Duncan as the cutoff point, that's 7 players in 11 years from 1998 to 2008. Discounting more recent drafts as players haven't reached their potential yet. Generally, a crappy team get a top-10 pick. They may get lucky and get into the top-3, or suck very very bad for picks 4 and 5. But top-10 is a good average for crappy teams. So you're looking at 110 top-10 picks during this span, with 7 of them turning into franchise superstars.In other words, if you suck enough to be a perennial top-10 lottery pick team, you have ~6.4% chance of getting a Dwight Howard-caliber each year on average.

    So yes, there's a chance that Dwight Howard won't sign. And he cost a lot more money. And you have to take on bad contracts. But had the Rockets tanked instead in the past two years, the odds that they get a franchise superstar would've only been ~13%. If the odds of Howard staying is even at a third, 33%, that would be like skipping 4+ years of sucking. All for the price of taking on some lousy contracts and one lottery pick that's mostly top-3 protected(superstars dropping out of top-3 are rare).

    tl;dr version: If Morey is even somewhat, kind of, maybeish, sort of confident that Dwight Howard will re-sign, it would be worth it to throw away everything we built up the past years for this guy. Because the risk by going the other direction isn't really that low either.
     
    #1 meh, Jul 13, 2012
    4 people like this.
  2. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    Good job.
     
    #2 Mr. Clutch, Jul 13, 2012
  3. iconoclastic

    iconoclastic Member

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    Not only that, but Howard leaving bumps our draft picks up, as we'll be historically bad after we empty the cupboards after the trade, and we'll gain equity in that way as well, compared to the #4-12 picks we'll have with the semblance of talent already on the roster.
     
    #3 iconoclastic, Jul 13, 2012
  4. Outlier

    Outlier Member

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    Instead of "U Mad?" it should be "U Scared?" to those cowards afraid to pull a deal for Howard.
     
    #4 Outlier, Jul 13, 2012
  5. Aruba77

    Aruba77 Contributing Member

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    Meh, I respect your analysis, and I think you make a very good point. But let me ask a question: what was the last team to win a championship that didn't start by drafting a franchise player? And draft night trades don't count cause that's like trading for a draft pick and then drafting the guy you want. Has there ever been a team that acquired their franchise player mid-career through trade like this, and it ultimately yielded a championship? A team that didnt already have an allstar they drafted on the roster? I can't think of any.

    Just to clarify my point, i'm saying that virtually no team has won a championship without drafting a star first
     
    #5 Aruba77, Jul 13, 2012
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2012
  6. poing

    poing Member

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    2004 detroit pistons
     
    #6 poing, Jul 13, 2012
  7. Kojirou

    Kojirou Member

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    I don't think that's relevant. The Heat, Celtics and Lakers all had superstars they drafted. But they didn't become championship teams until they traded for another star, whether it was Shaq or Garnett or Gasol or Lebron. In fact, more often than not, it was the traded star who made the bigger impact.

    So in the past, the model was draft one superstar and trade for another. That works. But why not just trade for both?
     
    #7 Kojirou, Jul 13, 2012
  8. panamamyers

    panamamyers Member
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    You are putting a lot of caveats into the question as you go there as to be sure and exclude the Lakers and Heat.
    All of the Lakers championships of the last 15 years are directly related to acquiring a big name piece in a trade. The Shaq trade got them the first three, the Gasol trade the last two. I'll let you have the original caveat of a draft night trade, but there is no reason to not include teams that already had a star.
    Both Heat championships were directly related to getting a big name star through free agency.
     
    #8 panamamyers, Jul 13, 2012
  9. Outlier

    Outlier Member

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    So are you saying there's some kind of special benefit for those franchise players who stay with the team that drafted them causing them to win championships? Are you saying there's a kind of negative vibe on stars who get traded for in their prime? A franchise player is a franchise player. And we are getting one with Dwight. Period.
     
    #9 Outlier, Jul 13, 2012
  10. komac

    komac Member

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    If this trade goes down, the Rockets will be the new Orlando Magic... freaking Houston Magic! So absolutely nothing will change for Howard, why in the world will you think he'll want to resign here?

    This board has gone absolutely crazy, jeez...
     
    #10 komac, Jul 13, 2012
  11. K-Low_4_Prez

    K-Low_4_Prez Member

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    Thank you!!!

    All I have been doing in this other thread Is taking heat!
     
    #11 K-Low_4_Prez, Jul 13, 2012
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  12. K-Low_4_Prez

    K-Low_4_Prez Member

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    We arnt in Orlando that's why!!

    Bazinga! He doesnt care about winning (he would be in OKC right now if he did) so I don't think it matters he just wants to move!
     
    #12 K-Low_4_Prez, Jul 13, 2012
  13. Aruba77

    Aruba77 Contributing Member

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    Perhaps the quintessential example of a championship which was won without a superstar (the only example i can think of). But they did draft Richard Hamilton, who was a 3-time allstar.
     
    #13 Aruba77, Jul 13, 2012
  14. Aruba77

    Aruba77 Contributing Member

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    Very good point. I don't necessarily disagree, but all I'm saying is that it hasn't been done before.
     
    #14 Aruba77, Jul 13, 2012
  15. K-Low_4_Prez

    K-Low_4_Prez Member

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    The NBA Is not the same!!

    "The Decision" changed the game!
     
    #15 K-Low_4_Prez, Jul 13, 2012
  16. Aruba77

    Aruba77 Contributing Member

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    Perhaps I misspoke. I know the lakers and heat acquired big-time stars through trade, ultimately winning championships, but they had franchise players they drafted first.
     
    #16 Aruba77, Jul 13, 2012
  17. anthony59237

    anthony59237 Member

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    they traded for him.
     
    #17 anthony59237, Jul 13, 2012
  18. poing

    poing Member

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    rip was drafted by the wizards.
     
    #18 poing, Jul 13, 2012
  19. panamamyers

    panamamyers Member
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    Yeah, but my point was that you were putting too many caveats into the statement. First you started out saying that no team had never built around a trade piece. Then after you typed that sentence, you remembered Kobe was traded to the Lakers, so you threw in the caveat of draft day trades don't count. Then you remember, wait a minute, Shaq was traded for by the Lakers, so then you threw in the caveat of they couldn't have a star on the tea already.

    Just too many caveats to the statement at that point to make it much of a worthwhile statement to make.
     
    #19 panamamyers, Jul 13, 2012
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  20. Aruba77

    Aruba77 Contributing Member

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    My bad. Terrible oversight. But as Detroit is pretty much the exception to the "superstar = championship rule" I think you still get my point.
     
    #20 Aruba77, Jul 13, 2012
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