Didn't Biggio have a similar drop in his performance at the end of last year? I wouldn't replace him this year, but I'm not sure we should sign him another year.
You conveniently glossed right over the post-ASB numbers, which is pretty helpful for your argument but not very credible. Burke had a terrible slump early in the year and has shown marked, consistent improvement as of late (as those ignored numbers show). Burke's a better player than Biggio is as of today and should therefore be receiving the bulk of the starts at 2B. I love Biggio, too, but if he didn't have a statue outside MMP and was putting up similar numbers, there'd be not problem with replacing him. Seems to me like your best chances of winning would most likely come as a result of playing your most talented guys. Biggio's no longer the Astros most talented 2B or LF. The Crawford Box comment is not an excuse for Biggio, but rather it is an explanation of his skewed offensive numbers. Biggio has 16 HR at home and 1 on the road. His road OPS is horrendous...barely better than Ausmus, Everett and Lamb, as I mentioned before. If an aging Biggio can take advantage of the Crawford Boxes, just imagine what a more talented offensive player (like Burke) could do.
What else do you need? How about more than 1 month of stats before benching your 15-yr starter? July was Biggio's 2nd best month, by the way. This isn't some kind of steady decline.
Let's see... Burke had an early season slump, so you discount that. Does Biggio not get that benefit as well? Or do his slumps have to be counted? Burke has shown consistent improvement? He's had a great three weeks. Before that, his July was worse than his June. How does that show consistent improvement?
Biggio's numbers are average at best, and the Astros' best prospect plays the same position (better than Biggio) and is now producing offensively. If you want the best team on the field, it's Burke at 2B, not Biggio. If you want to be sentimental about it, keep running Biggio out there. It's Jason Lane all over again for Burke, and it's a shame.
Biggio's numbers, for one, are well above average for 2B. Secondly, they dwarf Burke's numbers. You can't take 3 weeks of Burke's numbers and extrapolate that into "that's what he now is", no matter how much you'd like to. By no stretch of the imagination is Burke a better offensive player right now than Biggio. It will be a Jason Lane all over again for Burke if he sits on the bench for 2 or 3 years. He's been in the majors for 2/3rds of a season and he's played for virtually all of that. His and Jason Lane's situations thus far are in no way, shape, or form similar - in fact, they are the exact opposite so far in that the Astros have done everything possible to find a spot for Burke to play immediately on a full-time basis.
You're making it sound like Burke has no history of excellent offensive production. You obviously know baseball, and I'm sure that you know as well that Burke dominated at every level of minor league baseball with hardly a hiccup. The way that he's hit the ball since the ASB is purely consistent with his whole minor league career and the expectations that have followed him to Houston. Sure Biggio's numbers dwarf Burke...so do his opportunities. I agree that Burke's been inconsistent this season, and I believe that is because he's never been relegated to platoon duty and he's learning an entirely new position on the fly, not because of limited capabilites. Other NL 2B: Kent, Utley, Giles, Walker, Durham, Vidro, Weeks, Castillo, Loretta...where does Biggio fit into this list in 2005 (assuming health of all)?
And that's a good sign of what he will be down the road - but not a sign of what he is now. And his "post all-star break" numbers are a bit misleading. He's been extremely hot for about 2 weeks (starting Aug 7). From the ASB until then, he performed just as he had the rest of the season - extremely poorly. So you're making judgements based on two weeks of stats - hardly enough to conclude that its time to bench Biggio. Kent and Utley would certainly go above him. Outside of that, Biggio has been similar to Giles, Durham, and Walker (more power, slightly lower average) in base numbers (avg, ops, power, steals, etc), but much better in secondary numbers (runs, rbis), and better than everyone else on that list. So I'd put him at 3rd in the NL, more or less.
IMO this is an example of "stats abuse". *Any* numbers can be found to support *any* argument. I don't think there's even a remote comparison between the two; Biggio is far superior, even at 38 (or is it 39 now?) years old. As Major pointed out, he's still among the better 2B in the NL. I think what happens with the Killers "B" is that folks compare them to how they were in their prime. The guys built HOF careers--of course they're not going to produce at that level now.
I've heard people complain that the Astros young positional talent is bad, and for the most part, I agree. However, the top guys like Ensberg, Lane and Burke had their development stunted, if not completely ground to a halt, for significant portions of their prime years because aging legends producing diminshing numbers were locked in to their respective positions. Look at Cincy - it was extremely painful for the Reds to part ways with Barry Larkin, who was a damn All-Star in 2004, and it was a fairly messy break, but the end result was that Felipe Lopez (not as highly regarded a prospect as Burke, by the way) blossomed quickly into an All-Star SS by being allowed to play every day. There's plenty of room for debate, obviously, but I believe that the long-term future of the Astros continues to look gloomy due largely in part to the organization's insistence to run Biggio, Ausmus and Everett out their every day. If Biggio's going to stay for two more years, then Burke should either be dealt or plugged in at SS. His potential is way too high to rot away as a utility infielder/platoon OF.
padgett -- i'm going to be repeating major...but in response to your posts to me: it seems you've taken a month of burke's stats vs. the same month of biggio's stats to jump to the conclusion that burke is a better player than biggio. sorry, it just doesn't work that way. baseball ebbs and flows. players get in swings...and get in ruts. it evens out in the end. more information and bigger sample sizes are more helpful. right now the astros, as a team, are fighting for a playoff spot. i want the hall of fame veteran in there over the rookie in MOST instances...but particularly so when, in that very season, the veteran's numbers are still far superior to the rookie's. i am certain there's a place for you at the houston chronicle however!
padgett316, I can see your point about Lane, but I'm not sure it really applies to Ensberg. I'm positive it doesn't apply to Burke just yet. I think he could benefit from being moved to a different spot in the lineup as evidenced by his performance in the two, three and six spots (well, I think the six). I also think there's a lot to be said for him getting to play nearly everyday, even if it's not in one of his natural positions. I don't think Burke's career will be affected long-term by Biggio coming back and playing next year. This doesn't even take into account the other issues as to why Biggio should be able to play until he looks like Willie Met.
I'm willing to concede that it's overdramatic to consider benching Biggio at this point in 2005. If I were the GM, then I would have started the 2005 season with Burke at 2B and Lane in RF every single day. It was also not my intent to say that Biggio's remaining career will mirror his most recent six weeks, nor that Burke will always have an OPS of .900 going forward. However, I believe that Biggio's defensive range is bad and getting worse and that his offensive production over the next 2.5 seasons will be considerably worse than what Burke could provide given that same opportunity. Going into 2006 (and apparently 2007) with plans to run Biggio out to 2B, Everett out to SS and Ausmus out to C on an everyday basis is going to produce more of the same, and likely increasingly worse, offensive production.
I agree that 2 or 3 more years of Biggio will be a problem for Burke - he's just not going to be in our outfield next year and he needs playing time. I can't imagine them sending back to AAA, so what our plans are for him, I'm not really sure - that's something I'd like to hear from the front office. In my posts, I was primarily referring to this year. I think Biggio will be fine offensively next year (not great, but not a liability either), but his defensive range is certainly shrinking each year. Assuming we get a normal LF, the only real "holes" in the lineup would be C and SS - and I think you'd be hardpressed to find a team in the NL that doesn't have at least 2 holes in their lineup.
i don't want to speak for him...but i think this is why Buck thinks it would be a good idea to look at trading burke. because biggio WILL be starting for the astros next season, and you just might get something back to plug one of those holes.
Yeah - I wouldn't be opposed to that. If nothing else, trade him for a slightly-better 2B prospect that's another year or two away.
I think the point you are missing that everyone else seems to get is that Biggio (along with Bagwell) is our Cal Ripken Jr...or Chipper Jones...or Derek Jeter. He is the face of this franchise and if you want to remain among the consistently elite teams in baseball (as the Stros are now) you don't treat people like Biggio and Bagwell, who have given this team and city everything they had for the last 15 years, like you would any other players at this stage in their careers. They are different, and they are above the normal rules where logic and statistics might dictate a change should be in order. They decide when it's time to call it quits, and they have more than earned that right by consistently showing the pride and dignity of warriors that should tell you neither will let himself be embarassed by eroding skills in the field. That is why Bagwell is probably going to call it quits this offseason... And why Biggio may play another 1-2 years.
I think Biggio is the BIGGEST (but not the only) reason we still have a baseball team here in Houston. When he took less money to stay here around 1995/96..turning down St. Louis and Colorado...he set a tone. He's been intensely loyal. And the team became competitive quickly with him sticking around. Without him, I'm not sure they win the division in 97...I'm not sure they piece things together...there's a lot of IFS there. But his decision to stay was, in my mind at least, a turning point for this franchise that previously watched those sorts of players walk out the door.
