538 - Where Do The Rockets Go From Here?

Wherever they go next season, it probably ain't up. Just have to hope the Warriors are going the same direction (and nobody else goes up).

 

Disagree. Not wasting the first 20-25 games next year on integrating Carmelo Anthony will mean the 2019-20 Rockets are more likely to be near 2017's win total than 2018's.

I do think MDA is gone though.

 

This is the type of thing I'd have hoped 538 would have actually provided some analysis on. It's a site about statistics. How about some data?

The Rockets ORtg goes down 6+ pts per 100 possessions EVERY YEAR in the playoffs. They find different ways to lose while keeping it close, everytime. 0-27 from three, to being outrebounding, to too many turnovers, to defensive meltdowns at the wrong time.

They've lost to the Warriors as the 1st seed, 2nd seed, 4th seed and 8th seed. Against other great defensive teams in the playoffs, they also suffer offensively. They went down to a Spurs team without most of their better players.

I don't have a masters in statistics. I don't run a statistics website. Maybe provide some of these statistics?!?!?

They do provide statistics on Harden's FT rate. Very illuminating. FT rate overall is up, EVERY YEAR, in the playoffs for the NBA as a whole. But Harden is down, every year.

You add all these statistical facts together, and don't conclude that you need to change the process, than you'd be VERY crazy.

 

In Statistical analysis , if a part of your model is correlated with the error term , then that's a big problem.

My answer is MDA

 

This is incredibly... RATIONAL unlike 95-99 percent of the takes in the past few days.

 

IDIOT?

 

My man lol, your answer is always MDA.

 

I think you and 538 are both right.

The rockets came reasonably close, and the way to get over the hump is to fix the offensive decline that happens every playoffs

 

I mean, they're definitely right because they've made definitive conclusion, lol. They're like "stay the course, don't stay the course... we don't know... but Daryl should!!"

 

this probably needs to be looked at. 0-27 from three is a statistical anamoly, being out rebounded is a personnel issue, turnovers just have to be worked on, and the defensive meltdowns only happend this year agains the Warriors. ORtg in the Playoffs has alot of context that has to be looked at before you really give out any assessment from it which im sure Morey already has. Do you really think Mike would still be around if Morey really thought he wastn gonna take us there.

 

Also another thing, im pretty sure EVERYONE's offense declines every playoffs, so that has to be included as well. Now if WE have the most loss from the regular season relative to other teams, i get it. One thing I do get is that our clutch time offense, really needs to be worked on. We are way too predictable in the Clutch which is why we lost those close ones to GS. But to be honest more than the offense, is that the personnel has to change, Ill say it again if that Memephis trade had gone through and we had gotten Temple and Jaymaychel Green(especially him) I think along with Wayne Ellington, this could all be different.

But defense(especially rebounding) and personnel are the number one issues.

 

Oh hell yeah !

Lol , that's definitely been true lately for me .

But the first part of my post is true nonetheless so I agree with you

 

Rockets need help. Bring in Some people who want to knock out the warriors. If they are built to beat the warriors, then the build was not good enough. James Harden is arguably the 2nd best player in the league. Mike said there alot of players may come. We are going to have to open up Cap, and or Spend over.

 

Melo was gone by game 10 I believe.

 

We're about to lose a lot of the key regular season guys that gave Harden solid help unless they are content with vet min. Faried, Rivers (maybe), Green, Nene (retirement?), House, hesitant to put Shump here because he kinda sucks... PJ and Paul will be a year older and they are already on the decline.

Its gonna be tough finding (regular season) jewels in the rough like Faried, House, and great role players like Rivers if they decide to move on for more $$$$.

Yeah we might not be integrating Melo. We might be integrating a bunch of new guys that may not work out like Ennis.

 

I hope so.

 

What does what DM thinks have to do with it? DM thinks James Harden is the greatest offensive player ever.

I like the dude as a GM but let’s nit get it twisted.

I couldn’t tell if the rest of your post - effectively making excuses for everything - was sarcasm or not. Lol. I left out tons of further options. Like bad coaching. Refs being “out for us”. Injuries.

One could go on.

 

GSW are up ORtg in the playoffs. Bucks the same. Nuggets slightly up. Spurs slightly up. Blazers slightly down.

That’s all this year. Basketball reference has all this stuff.

We don’t have to guess. Rockets ORtg drops 6+ish points per 100 possessions each of the last 3 years in the playoffs. I didn’t bother looking before that. That’s INSANE. Like literally insane. It’s the definition of insanity. Doing the same thing over and over and expecting change.

The SYSTEM doesn’t work against elite offenses. It’s too one dimensional and predictable. Coaches have said this. Media analysts have said this. Fans in general have said this. Past players have said this. Rockets fans like myself have said this. The only people not saying this is the team itself - and god bless them for giving it a shot but sooner or later you just have to look at the facts.