Not if Chas continues to hit like he has been hitting. He's been performing like Yordan with plus defense over the last few months. Chas's biggest weakness has been sliders. He was the worst on the team including Pena. Now he is one of the best on the team, which means what he changed has worked and it's more than just a hot streak. I see him as a 850 OPS player moving forward .
If Chas continues to hit like he has been hitting for the rest of the season, I see a 3-4 extension being offered in the off season that is similar in structure to Alvarez. Considering McCormick is older, he would be hard pressed to turn it down.
I think Chas is a perfect extension candidate, but he has 3 yrs of arb left. An extension of less than 5 years makes no sense. Buying out less than 2 yrs of FA is not worth the AAV hit the team takes during arb.
With the luxury tax amount going up each year, and if Framber stays healthy over the '24 + '25 season and continues to pitch the way that he has, he most assuredly will get a 8/200+ from someone. BOOK IT!! So what that he'll be 32. A LHP (who's one of the best pitchers in the game), gives you 30 starts and 200+ IP, and is a big game pitcher, he'll have multiple teams offering him that type of a deal. It won't be the Astros (unless Crane changes his mind on long-term deals) but he will definitely get this type of a contract.
There’s still not a lot of precedence at that age. Cole got a 9 year deal at age 28 that was unprecedented and from the richest team in baseball. That’s it as far as 8+ year deals for pitchers go. I do think the Astros have a distinct leverage/advantage for him to accept an earlier extension and buy out some arbitration years. If they can lock him in through is age 34-35 season, they’re then in the drivers seat to give him more 2-3 year deals (like JV got).
Hoping thy can extend him this off-season. Buy up four yrs of FA. Maybe a 6/180. He's been durable but he's watched Garcia and LMJ go down as well as Urquidy out for a couple of months. Maybe he goes for the security now.
Get your Parades over Prospects shirts. Although I know some of you would prefer they make a Prospects over Parades shirt.
If the cost for Bregman is 6/180, they will let him walk. The last 4 years he has had an OPS of .between 780-820, he has settled into a fairly consistent 800 OPS type player with a plus glove. He has settled into about a 4-5 WAR type player per 150 games. I think he is under-rated with fans at this point, but I cannot see the Astros giving him 6/180, not for a player that would be 31 years old when that deal starts. I could be wrong, but if I had to speculate, he signs a shorter extension for an AAV of around 30 million or he becomes a free agent, and if the kid from Ohio State in AA keeps progressing, he takes over 3rd.
My issue with Bregman is the inconsistency, you just never know what guy you are going to get on any given night. I don't see him as a "star" type player, but he's a very solid 3rd baseman....the problem will come when he looks to get star money for solid performance. Just like with Correa, I'd let Bregman walk. I don't think his performance will match the contract he wants, and so the Astros should look for 85-90% of the performance for 1/10th the cost just like they did with Correa and Springer.
If 2020 and this year are extrapolated to 162 g, Kyle would be at 20.9 bWAR after 4 seasons of control. That makes him "worth" a touch more than $50M per year. He has no injury risks, has a rounded skillet that should age well, will be 27 next year, and plays a lesser physically demanding position. He is about as safe a bet as there is to keep this level of production for several years. If he were to sign a 10yr/$300M extension this offseason then it would run through his age 36 season. He could get 5 WAR ages 27-29, 4 WAR ages 30-32, and 1 WAR ages 33-36 and "earn" his contract. Plus the Astros would have benefitted from paying him less than $1M per WAR his 1st 4 years.
I really like Chas in the short term. I do worry long term that he gets a lot of value based on maximizing his value with his legs defensively and on giving his max effort swing a lot. If the Astros can get him to sign an extension for 2 FA based on his current projections, I think that would be a good bet as I think the projections are still low on his abilities in the short term (i.e., projections don't know why Chas has played so few of games).
Chas becomes even more important for our future bc we traded Gilbert. There is no minor league help coming for the outfield so we need Chas to remain the player he has been this year
This is a strawman argument. The people that like prospects understand that the Astros have never won a World Series without prospect hugging. I tend to like Altuve.
that would be a horrendous trade for the Stros. The stros dodged a bullet for all the talk bout going after Cease this trade deadline.
The value of prospects depends on what stage your team is in. The Astros loading up on prospects for so long is why they were able to always have more guys coming up to replace guys looking to get overpaid like Correa and Springer....but the Astros aren't in that phase anymore. The top talent prospects pipeline that was at full flow has slowed to a trickle. Now is the time to squeeze out a few more years before starting the process over again. There just aren't that many more top tier guys coming, so it's best to flip what you have for someone who helps now.
I have no doubt you are right about how the Astros handle Bregman but it's a shame. He will be in a situation where he would drastically hurt his overall chances of maximizing his career earnings if he takes a contract that doesn't extend to at least 37, probably 38 and he already sacrificed that chance once by gibing up 2 FA years and signing his extension before his huge 2019. It's not how Jim Crane or MLB teams operate, but Alex has left money on the table to stay with this team and was instrumental in both World Series Championships. He has earned a couple of extra years or a few extra $M AAV on a new contract with the Astros. And this isn't charity. Since 2020 (not counting his 2 best seasons) Alex has been the 6th best 3B in baseball by wRC+ and OAA plus the best in K and BB rates. And that's even with playing through injuries that are now behind him.
I'm thinking the Kris Bryant deal as a comp. Maybe 6 yrs instead of 7 since he's a year older but the same $26M AAV. That's 6 / $156M
Would be typical for the White Sox to give up for him and sell low... sorta like the Pirates did to Gerrit Cole (they didn't really sell low, but they absolutely didn't think he was capable of what he is now). If they do choose to do that this off-season, and he goes to a good team/organiziation, I expect a similar turnaround.
It’s even better than you think. Peña is here through 27 and Yainer through 28. Brown and France are here through 28. Javier through 27. Yordan through 28. After 24 my guess is Altuve is extended through 28 to retire an Astro and Bregman walks. Tucker and Framber I think are mortal locks to walk after 25. Urwuidy gone after 25. Lance and garcia after 26. We are clear clear clear strong position to competent for WS titles in 23, 24 and 25. After 25 we have some very valuable assets in Yordan, France Brown and Diaz for 3 years at light money and Peña and Javier with 2 years at light money in addition to Chad and Garcia in walk years. All that isn’t a WS contender in and of itself and will require development, but I would guess we have enough to be a credible contender. If not then the prospect haul you could get for selling off those assets after 25 could open up another decade long type window if you did it right. I can’t even imagine what kind of return you could get for those guys with 3 years left, and even the guys with only one year left should be good enough to fetch a 55 value prospect or a couple 50 value prospects.
