That dude is the best Astros prospect writer on earth. Incredible amount of research and detail. I do chuckle at his comps. Here’s his current “reminds me of” roster: SS Chris Taylor (Matthews) DH Eloy Jimenez (Baez) 3B Josh Donaldson (Dezenzo) RF Kyle Schwarber (Fisher) 2B Jake Cronenworth (Loperfido) LF Tommy Pham (Corona) 1B Nathaniel Lowe (Wagner) CF Garrett Mitchell (Melton) C ??? Bench: SS JP Crawford (Jaworsky), OF Will Brennan (Barber), UT Chris Carter/Cedric Mullins (Leon), IF Noelvi Marte (Luciano), C ??? Rotation: Spencer Strider (Bloss), Joe Musgrove (Knorr), Joe Ryan (Arrighetti), Bailey Ober (Taylor), Cole Irvin (Dombroski), ??? BP: Justin Campbell (Tredwell), Joey Lucchessi (Gordon), Julian Merriweather (Ullola), Tanner Houck (Guilfoil), Joe Barlow (DeVos), Oliver Drake (Fleury), Jake Irvin (Kouba), Enoli Paredes (Santa)
Astros could use this guy to load-manage the gassed rotation. Bielak and Blanco should have already been helping.
Today was the last day of the season for both Class A levels. Tyler Guilfoil finished off 2023 with a dominating outing as he turned in five shutout, no-hit innings, walking three, and striking out 11 for Asheville. Fayetteville completed a suspended game, which they won, and then won the regularly scheduled game. Cam Fisher hit his 5th home run in the suspended game. Juan Santander and Dauri Lorenzo went deep in the second game. Valente Bellozo allowed a hit and struck out two over four scoreless for Corpus. Bellozo is probably happy that he's not in Asheville anymore; he gave up 14 homers in 56.2 innings, or 2.2 HR/9. He's allowed 22 home runs in his career and 21 have come when he was with the Tourists.
Top 10 Potential Breakout Astros Prospects for 2024: 1. SS Brice Matthews: He had a nice debut in A ball and showed why he was a first round pick, hitting for power and showcasing his athleticism. If he is able to take a big step forward in his contact rate and have success early, 150 good PA in AA by the end of the year would likely have him in a few Top 100 lists. 2. OF Luis Baez: He broke out in the FCL and held his own as a teenager in A ball, although his k rate did get a little high for a pure bat prospect. A dominant 200 pa stint to begin 2024 in Fayetteville would likely get him promoted to Asheville, where he could put us some monster numbers, if that happens, he'll be getting a lot of hype, especially if the defensive reports project him to be stay viable in RF. 3. 3B Tyler Whitaker: He overcame a yellow flag strikeout rate in a repeat of Fayetteville to get promoted to Asheville, where he held his own as a 20 year old in 73 pa. Another good step forward in the first 3 months of next season would likely have him in AA as a 21 year old and get him a lot of recognition, especially considering the reports of his defense at 3B are pretty glowing. 4. OF Nehomar Ochoa Jr.: He looked really good in the month he played in the FCL post draft, and he certainly stands out in clips from before the draft. He's one of the highest ceiling players in Houston's system, and while it might not be likely, a full season debut at 18 would position him to make a LOT of noise. 5. OF Kenni Gomez: The hype kind of died down on him as he was limited by injuries and didn't play a ton in the FCL, but the reports from the DSL were too glowing to forget him. I'm hoping we hear a lot about him out of instructs and he gets a shot in Fayetteville in early 2024, where he will really have a chance to break out. 6. OF Anthony Huezo: Huezo is in the same boat as Ochoa, Gomez, Luciano, and Jaworsky: teenagers who reach full season ball will be watched, and if they have success they will get a lot of hype. If Huezo gets to Fayetteville next season, he has the tools to be an elite prospect. 7. 3B Waner Luciano: Probably the least heralded prospect on this list, Luciano got glowing reports from the FCL complex this season. He probably doesn't have the ceiling as Gomez, Huezo, Ochoa, or Jaworsky, but he's also probably the most likely to actually get assigned to Fayetteville early next year. 8. SS Cristian Gonzalez: He had a lost year due to injury, but he's a very high ceiling prospect. Unlimited physical potential means he just has to put up numbers. While unlikely, an assignment as Corpus' everyday SS to open 2024 would be a fantastic sign. Either way, success in AA at any point next year would leave him shooting up lists. 9. SS Chase Jaworsky: Looked very good in short FCL stint. I am expecting him to spend most of 2024 back there, but like most other players on this list, if he's able to get to Fayetteville and have some success, he'll get a lot of recognition. 10. C Will Bush: Another relatively unheralded prospect, Bush has a pretty high ceiling as a catcher with high offensive potential. Houston has typically moved their catching prospects up pretty slowly, so I will be very surprised if he is in full season ball to begin next year, but if he is, he could follow a path similar to Jacob Nottingham from a few years ago. Houston's big bonus DSL prospects all acquitted themselves very well, so they could shoot up lists although that likely won't happen until 2025, but I'm very excited about what we saw from Esmil Valencia, German Ramirez, and Camilo Diaz this season. Eduardo Perez also looked good when factoring in the context that he was only 16. Combine those guys with the other less heralded DSL prospects who put up numbers, and I'm anxious to see which guys are brought over to the states this fall. The rest of Houston's highest ceiling prospects are either already in the upper levels which means they will likely graduate before generating much hype (Dezenzo, Loperfido, Corona, Leon, Barber, Melton), or college prospects in the lower levels who are very unlikely to move quickly enough to see their stock rise that fast (Fisher, Williams, Johnson, Guillemette).
It has been my custom to take the 11th rounder as my choice for the player at the top of this list every year. This years #11 Nehomar Ochoa is an obvious candidate to become the Astros most exciting prospect over the next several years. Snake's list is great. Some less obvious choices that I will be watching include pitchers Jake Bloss & Ethan Pecko and I am very excited about Cam Fisher in the outfield too. Catchers Garret Guillemette & Will Bush are a refreshing reminder that a new GM is running the draft for the Astros.
Melton hit a grand slam for Corpus yesterday and added a couple singles going 3 for 6 Dezenzo went 3 for 4 with a dinger and 3 RBI, no BB or K and my man VanWey struck out the side to close the game, he's had three or four strong outings since my jinx, has 39 Ks in 28 IP in AA
My realistic best case scenario for 2024 Opening Day Astros minor league rosters: AAA: C: Salazar, Berryhill, Stubbs (wouldn't mind seeing a Knapp type brought in to replace one of Berryhill/Stubbs) IF: Loperfido, Leon, Whitcomb, Hensley, Arias OF: Julks, Hamilton, Dirden, Costes, Adolph (could see a Matijevic/Madris type replacing Costes/Adolph, or a Machado/Aviles type to add more infield options) SP: Arrighetti, Gordon, Kouba, Dubin, Blanco, Solis, Tamarez, Macuare RP: Record, Sousa, Gage, Mushinski, Martinez AA: C: Palma, Correa, Price IF: Dezenzo, Wagner, Gonzalez, Stevens, Kato (could see Sacco or Borden instead of Kato) OF: Melton, Barber, Corona, Daniels, Brewer SP: Melendez, Knorr, Gusto, Bellozo, Blubaugh, Henley, Brown, Robaina, Chaidez, Plumlee RP: VanWey, Taveras, McDonald High A: C: Guillemette, Encarnacion, Garcia IF: Matthews, Johnson, Williams, Deming, Cruz OF: Whitaker, Fisher, Cole, Cerny, Loftin P: Taylor, Fleury, Dombroski, DeVos, Guilfoil, Santos, Ullola, Urias, Rodriguez, Mancini, Swanson, Lopez, Carrasco A: C: Bush, Santander, Gaston IF: Jaworsky, Luciano, Casserilla, Lorenzo, Nieves, Ferreras OF: Baez, Ochoa, Gomez, Huezo P: Tredwell, Bloss, Pecko, Espinosa, Santa, Guedez, Dixon, Nezuh, Hicks, Langford, True, Chirinos, Vega EST/FCL: C: Cauro, Caldera, Villarroel, Trujillo, Diaz, Toro, Sosa IF: Diaz, Hernandez, Nunez, De Leon, Familia, Sherwin, Pereira, Colon, Ramirez OF: Valencia, Pratt, Gonzalez, Gonzalez, Lebron, Morales, Quintana P: Gillis, Mejia, Mateo, Pena, Santos, Victorino, Rodriguez, Gil, Aguilar, Coronel, Marte, Maican, Mercedes, Peralta, Varela, Sanchez, Austin, Leach, Petsche, Torres
Pretty encouraging start from Misael Tamarez last night. Sat 96 on his fb and was up to 99. Only gave up 3 walks and 3 hard hit balls. Got 8 k’s and threw 96 pitches. He is a fringe Rule 5 candidate but I think he could be a very high ceiling reliever since he could ditch everything but his FB and cutter and would probably regularly exceed triple digits in shorter stints.
A couple of really late promotions: LHP Brayan De Paula was moved up to AA and RHP Sandy Mejia was moved up to Fayetteville. Mostly just informative when looking at next year, but De Paula is probably an underrated prospect; he has some of the best lefthanded stuff in the system and struck out 13 per 9 in Asheville, but was victimized by a .413 babip. He could break out in Corpus next season.
What an end to the season for Robaina. He knows how to get out lefties in AA for sure. Struck out about 40% of them.
Corpus ended their season last night. IF Will Wagner was moved up to AAA to finish out the year, as Sugar Land has another week of games.
Another great outing by Tamarez last night. 99 pitches, up to 97 with his fb, only 2 hard hit balls, both on the ground, 6ip 5k 1bb 1er. Making a late push for Rule 5 protection. His Sept numbers are fantastic: 2.21 era, 24k 9bb, 20.1ip. He was pretty good in August too. He is only 23 so there is plenty of reason to believe he can continue to improve.
Prospects to the AFL: A.J. Blubaugh Ray Gaither Tyler Guilfoil Jaime Melendez Miguel Ullola Miguel Palma Zach Dezenzo Kenedy Corona
Interesting group. Really surprised they’re sending Dezenzo and Corona since those guys are more advanced than typical AFL prospects. All those pitchers have a chance to really boost their stock. Glad to see Melendez is healthy enough to go. I know nothing about Gaither. Hopefully Palma shows well so he can be slotted in AA to start next season where he would be a breakout candidate.
Was thinking today about how barren Houston’s system appears to be in terms of top tier talent and why that has happened. To me Houston has had 4 primary factors working against their farm system over the last 4-5 seasons: 1. Losing 4 top draft picks as punishment for the sign stealing scandal. 2. Consistent status as an offseason/deadline buyer since 2016. 3. Consistent small draft bonus pools due to later draft position (a result of winning). 4. A philosophy of aggressively promoting prospects through the system. It’s amazing to think about the fact that the 3 prospects from this year’s deadline trades and the loss of 4 top 2020-2021 draft picks would likely account for at least 7 of Houston’s top 10 prospects. So 70% of the top tier of the farm system, which usually accounts for 90% of future MLB production, is gone. Of the 4 factors I listed above, the last 3 have been in effect since 2018, and Houston’s farm remained very productive in those years. That leads me to believe that the real reason Houston’s farm is barren at the top is the sign stealing penalty. If Houston had their 1st and 2nd round picks from 2020 and 2021 still in the system, those guys would be in AA and AAA by now and it’s likely that at least 1 would be a Top 100 type prospect, possibly more since they would have likely added at least one other Ryan Clifford type overslot with the bigger bonus pool. Crane can gamble on Brown’s ability to overcome that with exceptional drafting and player development, but my opinion is that he’d be better off spending some extra money this offseason in trying to add 3-4 very good prospects to the middle/lower levels of the farm, even if it means going over the tax. Spending money on free agent SP and/or OF would allow them to potentially trade 1-2 guys like Brown, France, Urquidy, Javier, or Garcia and Meyers for prospects that would replace those lost draft picks. I doubt Crane takes this route. His MO seems to be to continually increase the demand on the front office to produce more with less. That has worked so far but it has its limits and once that tipping point gets crossed it can spiral down pretty quickly.
