If we offer any young pitcher an extension, Javier is the one. He has the best stuff, and it will play anytime, anywhere. I don't want to extend Valdez just yet. Wait and see how he does next year with the expected modified shift rules. So much of his game is built on allowing a baserunner or two and then Houdini'ing out of trouble with ground balls. I have a feeling he could potentially see his effectiveness drop under the new rules. Urquidy's stuff isn't really the best. I feel he gets through games by giving up hard contact right to somebody's glove. Lowest K numbers, and his peripherals aren't that good. Garcia really concerns me with his inconsistency and his mechanics. If we trade anyone, he is the one, but make sure we get a good haul, or a good, controllable bat at a premium position of need.
I think the idea of trading MLB players for other MLB players is that the players you get back fit better but also improve. I would agree that once a player is in the big leagues you are far less likely to see drastic miscalculations that the Astros can benefit from. As for the post season, it's pretty clear that the Astros are concerned about winning in the post season and view it differently than the regular season. The Astros paid Verlander and let Correa walk because of how they value #1 starting pitching, and they also had strong interest in Castillo from the Reds before the M's over paid. So they agree with you on the pitching point. I suspect we will see the Astros pay over 10 million dollars for a first baseman or corner outfielder per season for a season or two before someone in the minors is ready. They have a number of outfielders coming up but are likely a year or two away. I actually like the Astros position players in the minors a year or two away more than their starters. There is also a good chance we have a new catcher next year as well. Maldonado's option has vested, but he likely isn't catching more than 100 games, if that. He has weighed retirement as well.
I will be curious to see if the Astros call up Diaz to play first and also let him operate as their back up catcher. He just doesn't have a lot of interest in game planning. He is supposedly very smart and understands the game well, he just likes to hit. His value is certainly higher than what commercial prospect lists claim it is. He is limited positionally, but he can clearly hit and the expectation from what I have heard is that he can at least be a solid MLB hitter with the upside of being a legitimate middle of the order hitter. They have long projected his power, and that is starting to show. He reminds me a lot of Carlos Santana. His is supposed to have a strong arm and a quick release from what I have read, but he gets distracted. He has thrown out only 2 of 27 base runners in AAA this season.
Right now Valdez, Christian and Urquidy are all locked up by the Astros through the 2025 season and Garcia through 2026. So there isn't an immediate need, but I do think that it would be smart to get their free agencies staggered some. Valdez is someone that is has shown a lot, if they can get him extended for an extra year or two and pay it off with his base being a couple million more over the next three years, and a reasonable amount on the two extra years, they should do it. As for Javier, he is more of a risk but he has huge upside. He is known as a character, and doesn't always follow the crowd, so maybe he would be willing to extend. Urquidy is really solid, but he is more of depth to me. Garcia should be a closer.
They aren't going to end up short on SP even if LMJ doesn't make it back. After last year, do you really want Garcia starting a WS game?
Staggering SP: Resign Verlander for 2 years plus player option(s) Extend Valdez thru 2028 Extend Javier thru 2029 Verlander thru 2024 Urquidy thru 2025 McCullers 2026 Garcia 2027 Valdez 2028 Javier 2029
The other team is likely trying to do the same. Probably would be easier to trade a SP for prospects, and then trade prospects from deal or farm for whoever the Astros wanted. I'd expect the Astros use the Brantley money on a 1B (maybe a corner OF if can't get a 1B), go cheap on catching, and the rest to pitching and arbitration raises.
This is exactly why I'm not big on trading any starting pitching. Crane needs to spend closer to the luxury tax next season and not burn up the starting pitching depth to fill those spots via trade. You can't run out rookies at LF, 1B, and Catcher. Plus have questions at CF with Meyers struggling. It's also why I'm not feeling that confident that they spend the crazy price on Verlander when they may need to spread it around to those positions because guys like Leon and Lee didn't have great years like we hoped.
Option 5. In the last several years the Astros have been forced to bring up prospects to fill voids on the team on more than one ocassion. In one instance I recall from as far down as high A. In every single case those prospects worked out far better than expected. Overall I believe the success rate was nearly on par with trading for players and all it cost was a few nerves on people that were worried that prospects are not experienced or proven.
Nook, curious if you think the guys were simply tired after 19 in 18 with these last two games at Cleveland. Seemed flat or not interested. Offense concerns me going into the post season. On paper it got stronger with Mancini. But we seem erratic at times. Yuli concerns me quite a bit. Tuckers average is dipping. I am not counting on seeing Brantley again this year which sucks as he was our professional hitter as it were.
Preferably, I'd want Garcia pitching out of the pen in the World Series. Though, with a hurt knee like last year with the exact same pitchers on the Houston roster, I'd prefer he not be pitching. Granted, the Astros ran out of SPs last postseason with Verlander and LMJ hurt and Javier not stretched out. He changed his delivery to remove pressure from the knee and gave the team a chance.
I agree with you on this point. I think Crane will have to come up close to the luxury tax mark and likely will do it. However, even doing that, I am not sure they will be able to fill their needs on the field and also resign Verlander. He is going to want 3 years at a minimum. There is no way that the Astros run out a rookie catcher, in Maldonado retires they likely bring in Vazquez on a 2-3 year deal. Mancini could be brought in to play a corner outfield spot and maybe they let Diaz play 1st and be a back up catcher.
Don't forget Grienke getting I'll right before the post season and no longer being stretched out. Last year was a perfect storm against the rotation
This has happened almost every year with the Astros.... and really 90% of really good teams. Guys get tired, they also know they are going to win the division and be ready for the playoffs. Tucker has been feast or famine a lot in the big leagues so I am not too worried. As for Yuli, idk, he looked done a few years ago and really turned it on.
Astros had a lot of guys hurt in 2017 as well. In 2019 with the World Series on the line, Cole broke his vagina.
No I don't think so. I remember last year that they felt he could close if he didn't work out in the rotation. With the extension to Pressly, they likely don't make Garcia close unless they decide to move off paying Pressly.... they have Abreu as well that would be worth a chance closing. I personally think Garcia would be a top closer though.
does seem like they flatten in august every year. Think I recall a four game trip to Oakland in 17 when they got swept. Believe it was before the JV trade. Yuli is a curious one. You don’t go from what he did last year to what he is this year. Seems to steep of a decline. That said, I remember Olajuwon’s decline being pretty steep when his time came. So I guess anything is possible.
Beltran had almost the exact same decline from 2016 to 2017 with us. You can find a ton of examples of major one season declines at the end. He also had a fairly lucky season last year if you look at the expected numbers. He's frequently beaten his expected numbers over his career, but not by as much as last season.
