I think what will be more impactful is if Biden is able to just completely ignore Trump on the debate stage. With social distancing its not like he’ll be able to hover over Biden like he did Hillary like a creep. Just ignore him. It’ll drive him nuts and he’ll lash out and make an ass of himself as he always does. Engage him and treat it like a normal debate and you’ll give Trump an opening at some point to get personal.
Just another BS promise he made. Can you imagine what BS promises he is going to make again for reelection? Just more lies, lies, and lies.
2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes August 3, 20205:00 AM ET Why we made these moves: Colorado (9 electoral votes, Lean D to Likely D): This state has moved more sharply in Biden's direction as the coronavirus has become full blown nationally. Biden's polling advantage has increased 12 percentage points, giving him an average lead of 53% to 39%. Florida (29, Toss Up to Lean D): This was the biggest and most difficult move to make given Florida's history of being one of the closest states in recent presidential elections, as well as going against the Democratic wave in 2018 by electing a Republican governor and senator. But it's just hard to ignore that Biden has gone from a 49% to 48% polling advantage in early February to 50% to 44%, with some reputable surveys showing Biden with a double-digit lead. This is one state we expect to snap back to toss up, but right now it's leaning in Biden's direction. New Hampshire (4, Toss Up to Lean D): Even though this was the closest state in 2016 by raw votes, Hillary Clinton won it. Democrats have had success here up and down the ballot, and Biden now leads the state by 10 points on average. There hasn't been much polling in New Hampshire, so we will continue to watch if it tightens, but the best example of movement came from the University of New Hampshire poll. In May, Biden was up narrowly, 46% to 44%. In mid-July, his lead ballooned to 53% to 40%. Nevada (6, Toss Up to Lean D): While Nevada was close in 2016, Biden's advantage has remained steady, Democrats have had a lot of success there in recent elections, and they have a battle-tested ground game. Pennsylvania (20, Toss Up to Lean D): It's a similar story to Florida in terms of polling. Biden had a narrow 48% to 45% lead in an average of the polls at the end of February. Now, Biden is ahead 50% to 43%. Being at 50% in so many places is significant. This also had been a traditionally Democratic state, Biden's campaign is headquartered there, and he's been campaigning there in person. Again, this is one that could move back to toss up, but for now, it's leaning towards the Democratic candidate. Georgia (16, Lean R to Toss Up): If you had to bet, this one probably still tips in Trump's direction on Election Day, but for months the polls have been tight, tight, tight. Republicans have continued to win statewide office after statewide office, but the demographic trends continue to move in Democrats' favor. Other states and factors to watch: Maine, 2nd Congressional District: Biden's lead has expanded in Maine overall, but in Maine's 2nd Congressional District, where Trump won in 2016, a Colby poll had Biden ahead only 45% to 42%. North Carolina: It also remains in the toss up category. Biden has a narrow polling advantage, but an NBC/Marist poll raised eyebrows last week when it showed Biden with a 7-point lead and over the 50% threshold: 51% to 44%. We'll watch if that's the beginning of a trend or an outlier. Ohio: There's an argument for putting Ohio in the toss up category, strictly based on the closeness of polling. But this is a state Trump should win based on demographic and voting trends. If Ohio is really close on election night, it likely means a sizable Biden victory overall. The Biden campaign started spending on TV ads in Ohio for the first time last week. Iowa: This is another state Trump should win, but where his advantage has declined. The state's demographics — being almost all white — still favor the president. Texas: This traditionally Republican state didn't go as strongly for Trump in 2016 as it had for past Republicans, and current polling indicates a toss up. But Biden hasn't gotten to 50% in a poll in the state yet. If he did, it would be a real eye-opener. On the ground, Republicans still retain an advantage in voter mobilization. https://www.npr.org/2020/08/03/8972...slides-biden-advantage-expands-over-270-votes
I've been one of the people warning that we need to take seriously that Trump could still win. I still think that is a real possibility but I am leaning towards that unless something unexpected happens Trump is headed towards defeat. I think even if we see a significant promising vaccine development that might not save him. What I'm wondering about is some sort of October surprise, such as a major military confrontation with the PRC a few weeks before the election.
You are usually pretty cautious and I respect your opinion but I am not where you are at. Biden currently has a 6-8 point lead, and that is with there being a pandemic the President has absolutely butchered, an economy in the toilet and riots in the street. If we see a return to normality or some sort or even the President taking the high road, that lead can disappear quickly.... especially in some of hotly contested states.
This. Even the models in 2016 gave Trump a 20-25% chance of winning in the days leading up to the election and yet everyone was acting like it was a certainty that Clinton would win. A 1/4 chance of winning are real odds......... and there is a real chance that Trump has better odds this time as an incumbent and with the ability to somewhat control policy as the sitting President. Also, things can change very quickly and the race is going to narrow......... all Trump has to do is win the Electoral College.
True it is still very possible Trump wins again. What I'm looking at is the timetable and the trends given that it's August already and so far the trends don't appear to be shifting much and definitely not in Trump's favor. This why I said unless something unexpected happens. Unfortunately given the nature of Trump's presidency and the World as is we should expect something unexpected. Leaving outside something very unpredictable I think we should at least expect some sort of October surprise out of this presidency. This also still is the question of what Biden does. So far he's handled things well but as everyone knows he's prone to do and say something stupid.
I still feel the suburbs are really the key to winning the election and frankly have been for several elections now. When I was debating with others a few weeks ago about that Trump could win was considering how he might turn enough suburban votes. One of the areas I considered was how issues of law and order might sway those. Trump did go very heavily on that and didn't pay off. Partly that was just how ham handed he went with commercials showing a old lady trying to call the police why someone was breaking into her home. Partly it was that the images of what he claimed would be "Biden's America" were really "Trump's America". I think a bigger factor though is that while there still are protests that have gotten violent at times and there is still street crime the issue is burning itself out. As bad as Portland is it's not as bad as what we saw out of Minneapolis back in late May. Also while there are still many talking about Defunding the police that has died down and Biden never supported it. At the moment Trump is getting pounded in the suburbs and this is looking a lot more like 2018 where Democrats flipped the House by dominating suburbs than 2016 where Clinton lost them. We'll see if it holds but Trump can't win back places like suburbs of Philadelphia and the Research Triangle in NC he doesn't have a path to victory. Also just to add we shouldn't take it for granted. Complacency is still very dangerous, especially given how many shenanigans there will be regarding voting and the vote count.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/03/trump-campaign-point-of-no-returtn-389707 Trump campaign nears point of no return Early voting begins in several key swing states next month, leaving a ‘dwindling window of time’ for the president to turn the race around. More at the link
This is one of the reasons why I'm leaning a bit more towards that Trump will be defeated. That said in 2016 the day of vote broke decisively for Trump so I think it's important for Biden to start banking votes early. This is normally a strategy that Republicans have used before but in this election things have been overturned with Trump arguing that vote by mail and early voting Democrats.
I support holding non face to face debates only, where the live audience is scrapped and the moderators have the power to mute/unmute each candidate. If the candidates can't agree to that, then screw it.
moderators with muting power, lol Lincoln and Douglas are rolling in their graves I would just have a timer for each candidate, and the other candidate is muted while it isn't their time. Zero topics or questions from any outsider. This would not be agreed to because a moderator is needed to rescue Biden when his brain inevitably turns to mush on stage.
