Super 2 cutoff is technically top 22% of service time of players between 2 and 3 years. They are pretty much in the nameless 22%. Marisnick was technically a super 2 player, if Kemp hangs around the bigs he may be a super 2 player. But we're talking a few million dollars for players of their stature, so teams really don't put much thought into it. There are fringy guys nobody pays attention to all over baseball accruing service time that factor into who is super 2
You’re telling me a playoff OF of Springer/Marisnick/Brantley with 2 of Straw/Kemp/Fisher on the bench would be a disaster? Especially long as Marisnick is playing as well as he is they have tons of insurance.
Cole is going to cost as much as Scherzer imo in the offseason. Either way, Houston will have to trade for a pitcher. Outside of Verlander, who does Houston have come 2020?
Thanks for explaining. So in reality... Luhnow knew that once Correa and Alvarez were called up, they were going to be up for good. If Correa started the 2015 season on the Astros and Alvarez started the 2019 season on the Astros (and both never got sent back down), then they each would have qualified for Super 2?
Pretty much, although they would have been left in the minors for 10 days or so to get the extra year of team control. Concern over super 2 is reserved for players you expect to stick and be a major part of what you are doing. Doesn't always work out that way. Tucker struggled and got sent down, but only after accruing a month and a half of service time, so now the front office may (or may not) be holding him down an extra month and a half to try and re avoid super 2 status.
I agree completely. We are on the same page. I think they aren’t certain enough to lose an mlb caliber player, right now, to make the move
I will say if Astros need to shed salary for a ToR SP to make room under luxury tax, the Astros are going to have to make a tough decision between Reddick, Gurriel, and Smith.
Adding a pitcher this season should not be an issue in terms of payroll or luxury tax; they have ~$15M of space and have enough prospects to get a team to help pay down if they trade for a guy on a fat contract. Next season is a different scenario as they are likely only looking at ~$10-15M of space after arbitration and their existing commitments, and they will have needs at C, RP, and SP at least. Reddick is probably the odd man out.
The Astros have never not won a World Series with LMJ as the No. 2 starter to start the season. Granted, that will likely change by 2020.
Astros likely add a reliever as well. Sure Astros can use prospects to get other team to pay some salary. If Astros are going to lose Reddick or Gurreil (prefer Gurriel to be traded) next year, seems he's the easy answer to fix 2019 and 2020 money issues if Astros can get a SP lined up in a trade that costs well over 15 million a year. That said, I'm doubtful Astros will land the big salary ace this year and don't do anything drastic. Hope to be wrong.
This is what I'd imagine in a post-Cole world 1. JV 2. LMJ 3. Boyd (acq. for JBB and Fisher, not quite the best ERA, but excellent K/BB rates, good for #3) 4. Whitley/Martin 5. Peacock/Valdez (the #5 starter HAS to be someone who can effectively transition to the pen for the playoffs) Not a bad rotation for 2020.
To add, I expect Astros will try to consolidate talent and try to make a few moves with bottom of roster, AAA guys.
I like LMJ a lot but he is coming off of major surgery and hasnt pitched more than 129 innings in a season. He might be a guy who will ultimately end up being a bullpen guy. You might be right that Houston might not add an ace at the deadline but I hope that isn't the case. I don't think mortgaging the future is ideal but they primed to win it all this year. Adding a legit 3rd starter would be key.
