Luhnow says he's moving up "quickly," and Blum says that catchers who can hit move up faster than other positions, especially if they went to college. I'd say 2-3 years. As stated, he's got good defense (Napoli/Gattis comparisons are thus unfair, and just WRONG), but if he can crank 20+ homers with a good average, look out! Excited about him.
Pretty sure once Stassi is healthy and back on the roster, posters will be clamoring for Lee to replace him.
They needed a C that could maybe advance quickly, since they don't have one and won't go after one in IFA. Once they traded Rogers there was a massive hole at this position.
Hard to know, but they claim they expect him to move through the system. How fast he goes through the system will depend on his bat. He could be up in 2 years.
Maybe, but a lot of the same stuff was said about Bregman. None of the draft experts saw him being a superstar.
Sigh. The Nerd Cave obviously sees more in Kessinger than the above scouting report. The scouting report is troubling, in that what may be a singular career year at the the plate this year is his calling card. One expects a little more from a #68 pick. The first two picks are consensus reaches (at least outside the organization). The Astros likely had verbal a priori agreements from each on the signing bonuses, so it is possible that the Astros will go after a HS player still on the board.
It is just impossible for me to criticize any of these picks after reading that article on player development. The amount of analysis they've done on these guys is almost incomprehensible. I have no idea if they will pan out, but I know our front office has done the research and sees something they like. It's nice to have trust in the people running your favorite team.
Would not be shocked if Houston took Leiter or Callihan in the 3rd. They can see if their first 2 will sign for well below slot; if not, they offer slot and get an additional pick next year.
For those wondering, Jeff Keppinger is not a great comp for Grae Kessinger. Kessinger will likely strike out more and hit for more power than Keppinger did. Although Keppinger’s production would be an ok outcome for a 2nd rd pick.
They're the scouts from Moneyball. I wouldn't say they don't know anything, but the gap between what they know and what teams know has likely gotten a lot larger in recent years. When I hear things like "flat swing", my mind reinterprets that as his results-based stats are likely muted from what they would be if he got the ball in the air a little more. When I hear that same player hit 0.400 in the SEC, I think he's got to be hitting the ball hard, but likely on the ground or on a line.
What? I don't think anybody ever said Bregman would be a Nolan Fontana type player. He was always considered a top 5 pick. The main question was how much power he was going to hit for given his plus bat speed but flat bat path. Bregs got with the analytics folks with the aim of hitting more fly balls (launch angle) and turned himself into the player he is today, but everyone thought he was going to be a productive big leaguer.
Guys I like who are still available: Leiter Callihan Holland Song Stinson McCann Milone Doughty Dillard Johnson Groshans Fowler Mangum Gray
Lee is an athletic catcher with power, unusual speed for his position, and a good arm. He also put up big numbers this spring; we moved him up our board a bit seemingly every few weeks. Kessinger walked more than he struck out in the SEC, he’s a middle infield fit, and he’s an obvious swing change candidate, something Houston is good at implementing. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/day-1-draft-review/
I hope this is the strategy. There’s a ton of good pitching available. Luhnow manages the draft pools like a wizard so I have little concern I dig this draft. Lee sounds like a Molina behind the plate with good offensive numbers. If the front office sees something, it’s usually there.
One thing I’m totally unsure about is how negotiations with college juniors picked in the top 3 rounds typically go. On the one hand, they don’t have much leverage since after their Sr year they’d have zero leverage. But on the other, teams have to offer slot to get the compensation pick. There may be some handshake agreements in place, as I’m sure both Lee and Kessinger were prepared to sign for 3rd or 4th round money.
Before the draft everybody was high on McCann. Hope he's there in the 3rd. More depth at C wouldn't hurt a thing.
