This is the projection from our for-pay service. They're usually right on the money. Dorian is forecast to make landfall over the Florida Peninsula on Monday as a major hurricane. Dorian will turn back to the northwest and briefly move across the northeast Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday as a tropical storm. Then, it could make a second landfall to the east of Apalachicola, Florida by Tuesday evening.
Just saw that the water Dorian will be traveling over is 85-90 degrees surface temp. That is very warm and will fuel this storm. Also it is moving slowly which gives it more time to build. This could be a big one..
Dorian Hurricane Dorian is centered about 260 miles to the east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with gusts up to 125 mph. The hurricane is moving to the northwest at 12 mph. Dorian is expected to become a powerful hurricane by the time it tracks near or over the northern Bahamas on Sunday and Monday. By Monday night and into Tuesday, Dorian is expected to move into Florida as a slow moving hurricane with a high flood potential. Dorian is expected to be a powerful hurricane by that time. There does continue to be some uncertainty regarding the exact track. By the middle of next week, Dorian may be slowly tracking north into Georgia and the Carolinas. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch A disturbance may materialize to the southwest of Florida this weekend. It is expected to drift slowly to the west and move ashore somewhere between Veracruz and Tamaulipas in northeast Mexico by the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. It may produce a broad region of scattered showers and thunderstorms along with 15-25 mph winds to much of the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. It has a 10 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or weak tropical storm before moving ashore into northeast Mexico on Tuesday or Wednesday. Disturbance 34 remains near the West African Coast. It is an elongated, slow-moving disturbance roughly along 21W. A slow, west to west-northwest motion is expected over the next 5-7 days. Conditions may become somewhat favorable over the next few days in this region of the Atlantic. The disturbance has a 20 percent chance of development over the next week.
Looking very bad. Slowing down to a crawl, Cat 4, hooking straight up Florida? You're always glad when it's not you, especially since, one day, it could be us again, but many Floridians won't really fathom what's on the way, especially those who've recently moved there. I hope everyone takes it very seriously.
Currently the 1pm path has the center of the eye is 3 miles from my house. Its not looking good at all. Its better to be at the center 5 days out than be at the center 24 hours out. Saving grace is Irma cleared out much of the low hanging limbs 2 years ago.
I have a friend that just moved to miami. She is from houston so she knows hurricanes. She said a flight out is $2500 so she is going to stay and mentioned the airlines are gouging ahead of the storm. Hopefully it goes north of her.
Got relative in Orlando. They are watching closely but is relieved that there is now a 75% chance it’s going to turn north and miss Florida. Hope for the best, prepare for the worse.
We’re in St. Petersburg and are currently in Minnesota on a planned trip. We left Thursday and got the impact resistant panels installed where needed before we left. With every update, it’s looking better and better. Hopefully it works out for Florida and I hope that any impact turns minimal.
Not sure what airlines she checked, but I just picked today-09/05 from Miami to Minneapolis and it came to $715 on Delta. That’s a fairly normal rate for a last minute flight especially on a holiday weekend.
Wow, Dorian said 'nuh-uh, GIRL!' and is sashaying to the right. Dorian As of the 4 AM EDT advisory, Dorian is centered about 290 miles east of the Abacos in the Northwest Bahamas. It is moving to the west-northwest near 8 mph. This motion should continue for the next couple of days with a gradual reduction in forward speed. On this track, Dorian is forecast to move near or over the Abacos and Grand Bahama Island tomorrow and Monday. Thereafter, our latest forecast is for Dorian to turn to the north just prior to reaching Florida. It should move just off of the Florida coast and then late next week, move just off of the Carolina coast. However, it may pass close enough to bring wind gusts to hurricane force. Any deviation to the west would result in a landfall in either location. Dorian is a powerful hurricane. Winds are 140 mph. Dorian is expected to remain as a very powerful hurricane as it impacts the Bahamas and moves near Florida. While it should weaken as it moves offshore of the Carolinas, it is expected to remain as a dangerous hurricane. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 35 has formed in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico along 85W. It is a broad surface trough. This feature is expected to move to the west at 5 to 7 mph over the next few days. Environmental conditions are marginal for further development. The broad nature of the disturbance should keep any tropical development slow and limited in scope. There is a 20 percent chance of tropical development. Disturbance 34 is located south of the Cape Verde Islands along 24W. It is moving to the west-northwest near 8 mph. This motion should continue, which would take the disturbance into the open Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear somewhat favorable for further development. There is now a 40 percent chance of tropical development.
Hurricane Dorian roared to "catastrophic" Category 5 status Sunday with sustained winds of 160 mph on an unrelenting march toward the nation's East Coast.
This is a very strong storm. Even if the eye doesn't come on shore it's going to push a lot of water and air in front of it. Areas along the coast are still going to get inundated miles inland.
