If you spent some time watching Science Channel you wouldn't be surprised at all -- storm tracks are often unpredictable particularly on a flat earth.
Jogged East a bit Current Location: 30.7N, 84.8W Geographic Reference: Over Southwestern Georgia Movement: South-southwest at 5 mph Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 35 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 80 miles Organizational Trend: Steady Forecast Confidence: Average Chance of Development: 90 percent Key Points 1. We have made an eastward adjustment in the point of landfall. 2. Disturbance 12 will likely develop into at least a tropical storm in the northern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday afternoon or evening. 3. There is considerable uncertainty in both the track and intensity. The system could make landfall as a tropical storm or hurricane. Our Forecast The most recent model guidance has begun to shift a little to the east, concentrating on landfall around the mid-Louisiana coast on Saturday. With better model agreement, we have nudged the point of landfall from south of Lake Charles to just west of Vermilion Bay. This is not as far to the east as the model guidance is indicating, but we don't want to make too much of a change in the track all at once. One caveat as far as the model guidance is concerned is that there is currently no surface feature for the models to focus on. Once the surface low develops over the northeast Gulf during the day on Wednesday, the models should come into better agreement on the track and intensity. Our forecast now takes the low center about 150 miles south of New Orleans Thursday evening. We think that the disturbance will become a tropical storm Thursday afternoon or evening. It's name would be Barry. The slightly closer proximity to the coast in this advisory may inhibit strengthening somewhat. We are still forecasting max sustained winds to reach 60 mph by landfall, but the potential winds could be 15 mph to 20 mph higher or lower than predicted. The farther north and east the storm tracks, the weaker it will likely be at landfall. Expected Impacts Onshore Coastal Alabama and Mississippi - Squalls possible late Wednesday into Thursday as the disturbance organizes offshore. Coastal Florida Panhandle - Increasing showers/thunderstorms on Wednesday as the disturbance organizes offshore. Louisiana Coast from Mouth of Mississippi to the Texas/Louisiana border - Squalls likely Thursday through late Saturday, resulting in some travel issues. Scattered power outages are possible near where the system makes landfall Saturday. Eastern Texas - Heaviest squalls passing well east of the area. No significant impacts. Expected Impacts Offshore Southeast Louisiana Lease Blocks - Squalls reaching the lease blocks Wednesday night, making Wednesday the last full day of good weather for any helicopter evacuations. Central and Western Louisiana Lease Blocks - Squalls reaching the lease blocks late Thursday afternoon or Thursday night. Upper Texas Coast Lease Blocks - Squalls could reach the lease blocks on Friday.
Hurricane Season is always worrisome. Like.. if a huge storm devastated Houston (or many other places), would anyone be surprised ? No earthquakes though, blizzards, or high winds (besides hurricanes), so pick your poison.
An update from Levi Cowan. He explains very well how although models had become focused on a central Louisiana coast landfall to not discount a westward shift back the upper Texas coast due to models possibly not getting the intensity correct. He says a stronger storm expect more westward shift and a weaker storm more north and east and sure enough the 18Z euro has shifted a bit west. Stay tuned. Tomorrow is the day we will have some answers, I believe.
Yeah, I'm not gowanns to count my chickens. The eastward shift is based on a front approaching from the north. But that front may or may not make it as far south as they believe. That would leave the storm space to move toward Texas (Channel 2's Frank Billingsley). I remember Frank when talking about that low pressure off Yucatan, gonna cross the Gulf's warm waters, Hurricane Center says it's gonna become a Cat 1. Frank had a look in his eye like, But I don't know if I'm buying that. Sure enough, it became Harvey. NOT that Barry will be Harvey. But I'll ignore the Spaghetti Models for a day or so. Aaaaaaaaanyway, if in a day they say, Whoops, uh, we were wrong, I guess HEB will be packed. Glad we went to New Orleans last week.
Looks like it's going pretty strong up the middle of LA Current Location: 27.5N, 87.9W Geographic Reference: 125 miles SE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River Movement: West-southwest at 5 mph Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 35 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 8 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 5 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 85 miles Organizational Trend: Increasing Forecast Confidence: Average Chance of Development: Near 100 percent Key Points 1. No changes have been made since the previous update. 2. The confidence in the track forecast remains low. 3. The greatest threat from this system will be significant flooding over parts of southern Louisiana. Our Forecast Disturbance 12 (identified by the National Hurricane Center as Potential Tropical Cyclone Two) continues to become better organized. Hurricane reconnaissance aircraft continues to investigate the system. Based off the data recorded by the aircraft, it is possible that the system will upgraded to a tropical depression tonight. The data from the aircraft will not only provide information on the system's organization and strength. It will also provide data that will be used by the model guidance to increase the forecast confidence. The aircraft did find a low-level circulation farther south than what was analyzed earlier. At this time, the reanalyzed farther south center has not resulted in a change to our forecast. However, we will be monitoring how the new data impacts the model guidance overnight. Landfall is forecast to occur either Saturday morning or Saturday afternoon in southern Louisiana as an 80 mph hurricane. The system is forecast to be moving at 4 to 6 mph when it makes landfall. This will allow for prolonged heavy rainfall over southern Louisiana. Thus, the greatest threat remains flooding rainfall. Widespread flooding is expected over southern Louisiana. Expected Impacts Onshore Coastal Florida Panhandle - Increasing showers and thunderstorms will occur through this evening as the disturbance organizes offshore. Coastal Alabama and Mississippi - Squalls are possible through Saturday. Some street flooding could result in travel delays. Louisiana Coast from Mouth of Mississippi to the east of Lake Charles - Widespread flooding could cause significant flood damage in southern Louisiana. Significant travel delays are also likely. Power outages and minor damage will be possible due to the strong winds. Eastern Texas - The heaviest squalls are expected pass well east of the area. However, East Texas should still monitor this system carefully. Expected Impacts Offshore Southeast Louisiana Lease Blocks - Some squalls could occur later today, especially during the latter parts of the day. The worst of the weather is expected tomorrow and Friday as the system moves through. Central and Western Louisiana Lease Blocks - Squalls will reach the lease blocks Thursday night into early Friday. Upper Texas Coast Lease Blocks - Squalls should remain to the east of the leases Friday into this weekend based on the latest forecast track.
If that forecast holds, NOLA is in for it. We were there a week ago. Weird how things change like that. In any case, that's gonna be a lot of rain for those folks. Hope they don't get too Harvey'd.
We were planning on going there on the 19th. I have to cancel my hotel by the 16th to get a refund, so I'm hoping it's not too bad. We'll just pivot to San Antonio or something if they're cleaning up.
