2019 Astros Minor League Thread

The season is 186 days long, the Super 2 cutoff last year was 2 years 134 days of service time. If you take the average the last 10 years of 2.132, you get a cutoff date of 54 days into the season, which would be May 21.

This is just the best guestimate. Service time info from here: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/super-two-cutoff-mlb-2018-2019.html

 

I am a big believer in Alvarez, but at this point we are talking about one month of play. The Astros don’t play where they feel every regular season game is a must win. The Astros are winning with Alvarez in AAA.

 

Fangraphs daily prospect notes have a blurb on Yordan:

The use of the major league baseball at Triple-A combined with the PCL hitting environment has had, um, some impact on offensive performance. It’s important to keep this in mind when considering what Alvarez has done so far, though his line through 23 games — .386/.474/.916(!) with 12 homers — is remarkable. Notably, several of those homers have come against breaking balls, which Alvarez is particularly adept at identifying and adjusting to mid-flight. He does not have a sellout, max-effort swing — this power comes easy and it plays to all fields, as seven of Alvarez’s homers this season have been opposite field shots. He was toward the back of our 50 FV group pre-season because of concerns about his body and defensive limitations, but he’s hitting like someone who belongs toward the front of that tier, up near Pete Alonso.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/daily-prospect-notes-5-2-19-5-6-19/

 

From Astros Country ...

 

I don't think anyone is demanding it be now. I'd think everyone (at least everyone that's aware of the rules) is fine waiting for the Super 2 deadline and then trying to see what you can get for Kemp or White. I can't imagine Marisnick is in the conversation. His defense is too valuable, IMO...especially in a scenario where Alvarez will be playing LF some.

 

Alex McKenna got put on the DL again. In his place, Carlos Machado will make his full season debut and play LF tonight. McKenna's injuries have been a bummer, but I'm excited to see Machado. Hopefully McKenna will be healthy soon, as a Machado-Adolf-McKenna OF looks pretty fun.

 

I'm not up-to-date on prospects below AA. In the majors, Astros have Springer, Brantley, and Reddick. That's fun to me. AAA has Alvarez, Tucker, and Fisher. That's fun to me. Between, AAA and the majors, Astros have Marisnick, Straw, and Kemp. That would likely be a fun OF...though less good. Between those 3 OFs, where does the Machado-Adolf-McKenna rank in fun?

 

Well I originally made that comment thinking it would be one of the most intriguing OFs QC has had in a while, but 2017 had Dawson-Cameron-Wrenn, and 2016 had Tucker-Cameron(for a bit)-Straw, so as it turns out, the Astros are pretty good at finding OFs.

 

OF is solid top to bottom. The depth is great; so much so that the 4th OF on most of the rosters (Ferguson, McCormick, Meyers, Costes) are actually legit prospects, which is rare. Catcher is the real weakness in the system, followed by infield (1B/2B/3B moreso than SS).

That’s a bummer about McKenna. He was one of the higher ceiling guys I was hoping would take a big step to help fill the void once Tucker/Alvarez graduate.

 

He might be ok, regardless of what the prospect people say.

 

Martin has absolutely jumped Whitley in the "need somebody called up for good" lineup.

Peacock and McHugh to the pen...(starter #3 trade) and Martin/Whitley in the rotation.

In June.

 

.327/.406/.591 slash line isn't too shabby. Based on his numbers, it looks like he's going to have to work on hitting lefties otherwise may be a platoon option for us. Anyone have any idea how he did against lefties in college?

 

Duarte is probably my favorite of the utility type players in system. He should be able to play anywhere except 1st and catcher, and brings plenty of speed with a little pop. He'll be an interesting rule 5 decision this offseason.

Ramirez isn't the archetype Astros' pitching prospect, with a lower, more sidearm delivery. Despite that, other than an elevated walk rate, he's been pretty good vs lefties so far this year. Given his age and stuff, I wonder if they put him in the pen and see if he can't help the big league club as soon as this season. I would think he could sit upper 90s just airing it out.

 

The prospect publications under value players that have speed and possibly defensive limitations.

For example fangraphs had Yordan Alvarez as the Astros 7th best prospect coming into this season and Seth Beer as the 18th best.

All things being close to equal I understand preferring a fast player or a well established fielder. The issue I have is that not all things ARE equal in many cases and not all skills/tools are equal either.

Seth Beer hit in HS, he was the best amateur hitter in college baseball as a freshmen. He had a down soph season as teams stopped throwing him fastballs. He adjusted as a junior and had a big junior season.

He hit the grown running in the minors and not only has hit well, but overall has hit better this season than last and will be in AA soon enough.

The only real weakness in his offensive arsenal is that there is a question whether he will hit the high/inside fastball at the upper levels. So far he has though. He has always worked counts and he only swings at strikes.

He is one of the Astros 7-8 best prospects at this point.

Not every player with Beer's profile becomes a good hitter (A.J. Reed) but a lot of them do, and he is certainly better than a lot of the guys drafted ahead of him. The publications had him going in the second or third round.

Also, while Beer is VERY slow, he isn't a bad athlete and he has a real chance to stick at a corner outfield spot or first base.