Current wRC+ of Astros mlb.com top 30 prospects: 2. Tucker -23 3. Alvarez 282 10. Beer 87 13. R Dawson 118 14. Stubbs -42 16. Straw 110 22. Matijevic -34 23. Toro 94 25. Arauz 44 27. Pena 87 30. Adolph 102 Not a great start for this group, especially considering Dawson's k rate will probably catch up to him. I expect Tucker, Beer, and Arrauz will heat up soon. I'm worried about Matijevic. Of course until we get to >50 PA, stats don't matter at all. Early breakouts that might be real: Mayfield, E Valdez, Adams. Early slumps I expect to reverse: Salazar.
If before the season you asked me who had the lowest K rate of all qualified Astros minor leaguers on April 11th, it would have taken me so many guesses to get Jake Adams.
Word. It is interesting that he has progressively reduced his strikeout rate as he has moved up each level. Just the same, it’s curious that a guy touted as having potential 70 grade power only has 8 HR over his last 68 games. Stands to reason he has been and still is implementing some pretty dramatic changes in his game. Hopefully he’s in step 2 of a 3 step process, and the next/final step will be getting back to his power while maintaining his low(er) k rate.
Here's a scouting report from Jose Hernandez-Urquidy from his first start. Sounds pretty similar to Armenteros.
I'm of the opinion that moving Tucker might be smart if you can add a premium arm. I don't want to trade Alvarez
I'm not sure who even matches up well in a Tucker trade. Maybe Kluber, but I'm not sure Cleveland would want to deal him to another AL contender (especially during the season) plus he's 33 and not super cheap. Maybe the Pirates would trade Taillon? Or the Twins Berrios? Those teams seem on the edge of contention, and not likely to want to give up controlled starters, not to mention not really needing an OF. Maybe the Rockies would trade a pitcher so they don't have to run Desmond out there? Folty if the Braves feel their young pitching is good enough and they don't want Markakis to start? There isn't really a great fit that I see.
Cleveland for Kluber if they somehow fall out of it by the deadline. Arizona for Ray or Greinke (with Arizona throwing in add’l prospects and/or paying salary) Pittsburgh for Taillon or Archer if they aren’t contending and if those guys are pitching well. Toronto for Stroman (with Toronto adding $/prospects) if Stroman is dominant between now and the deadline.
Ray and Stroman each have a year and a half left, and neither played particularly well last year. Off the top of my head, the only starters who fetched a tucker-like headliner were Sale and Quintana, so you're looking at 3+ years of control of an established 4 win pitcher for comparables. Maybe a little less if the Astros don't include any other top prospects. Theoretically, the gap could be made up by the other team adding prospects, but I can't think of any examples of the selling team giving up significant enough prospects to close the gap between Ray or Stroman and Tucker. I guess I'm more skeptical on how Archer will age so I didn't include him, though the Astros had interest previously, so it's possible. I would hope they wouldn't trade tucker for a 35 year old Greinke throwing 89.
I do want to check out this "batting cage"... https://www.texasmonthly.com/the-culture/home-run-dugout-round-rock-top-golf-baseball/ That’s part of what made Dell Diamond the ideal location for the first Home Run Dugout, a sports entertainment business founded by Texas natives Nick Hermandorfer and Tyler Bambrick, in partnership with Nolan Ryan’s Ryan-Sanders Baseball. The company aims to be the baseball equivalent of Top Golf, offering an indoor, augmented reality experience that serves as the grown-up answer to the old batting cages—fans can rent out batting bays both during game days and when the Express are out of town.
Of course, don’t be ridiculous. But 50 PA is where *some* stats start to take on *some* meaning. The 50, 100, 200, and 600 PA thresholds are where stats have been shown to have increasing meaning.
I hope it works, just for added versatility down the road. He's got the quick feet and the arm, but can he learn the footwork?
