You may be vindicated yet. We just saw JD get 100 million dollars. Maybe this cat like 250 pound physique is just what the doctor ordered.
Not trying to look ahead, but if Reed just focuses on himself... He can be a mainstay next year. I don't know if Marwin will jet, as he's due a massive pay raise but who knows. I'm sure some team out there will offer 4/48 million or whatever and it may make the Astros think due to the core Astros contracts coming to a close. But this could be a blessing in disguise.
AJ Reed is going to be 2018’s Aaron Judge. Post hype prospect with massive power who struggled mightily in first 100 AB at highest level. Age 25 season. Book it.
Based on this year’s free agent signings, Marwin is looking at more like $35M/3yrs, if that. Zach Cozart, a far superior player in my eyes, only got $38M/3yrs. I love Marwin and am actually starting to think it may be an affordable option for Houston to keep him.
It usually happens every year that there are 1 or 2 players who come out of nowhere and amaze beyond all reasonable expectations. Conversely, there are usually 1 or 2 players who disappoint even though they were highly thought of on Opening Day. Last year, Beltran was the big bust. He looked great in ST but never really got it together in the regular season. The "grandpa Beltran who mentors younger players" was a good PR spin but Luhnow and Hinch really did expect him to produce offensively when the season started. Marwin, Jake, and Peacock were the surprise gems of the season. This year, I'd say the best candidates for shocking fans with outstanding performance are White, Fisher, and Reed. I'd say the best candidates to fall on their faces are Marwin and Gattis. Just because what Marwin did last year was so far different from anything he's done before; and because I'm not sure Gattis can adjust to hitting DH.
I agree with your contract estimate but Cozart isn’t a far superior player. They’re comparable offensively, Cozart is a better defender at SS but Marwin makes up for that with versatility. Plus Marwin has been healthier and is hitting free agency 3 years younger.
Cozart has 8.9 fWAR over the last 3 seasons, Marwin 6.1. Cozart would be better than Marwin defensively at whichever position they play (Cozart is a stud SS but was signed to play 3B for the Angels, he would certainly be a plus defender at 2B or 1B and would likely be much better than Marwin in the OF). FWIW, Marwin will be 30 on the opening day after he signs his free agent deal, Cozart will be 32. Like I said I love Marwin but he’ll be lucky to get more than $12M/yr and I don’t see how anyone could argue he’s as good as Cozart.
No doubt. I think it's a good comp that I hadn't thought of and they're probably valued similarly around the league.
That 8.9 fWAR is more than Hosmer over the last 3 seasons. I think Cozart signed a very team-friendly deal. If Marwin's swing change is legit (i.e. he posts more than 2 WAR this year), it would not surprise me if he does better than Cozart even though he is not quite to that level (unless he has another great year). It will really depend on what teams need. Cozart just was a free agent in the wrong year.
This year will be a huge year for Marwin regarding what type of offers he'll get in the offseason. If he puts up another season even close to last season (let's say .280 20 HR's and 70-80 RBI) then he's absolutely more valuable than Cozart. Although he would still probably fetch something in the 4 yr/$60 mil range.
Key factor is age. Marwin Gonzalez is 28 (will be 29 at start of FA) and Zach Cozart is 32. They have comparable seasons played and Marwin beats him on career averages in a number of categories. They are very comparable but I believe the best years of Marwin are ahead of him. I think he will get a bigger deal than Cozart based off age. If Cozart was 28 entering FA, his deal would've been bigger. He wasn't 29 so teams were wary of a drop off in his later years, especially since this past season was his best.
Reed taking over LH DH/1B duty would be awesome. I've always liked him, and he would add a dimension to the lineup that they didn't have last year. Can't carry a 3rd catcher, but I'd imagine they'd get by with McCann/Gattis just like they did last year. That being said, I would not bet on the above happening.
You have? Did he get more likable with each extra pound? I like the trimmed down version... now lets see if he can actually hit. Still is a long-shot to permanently supplant Marwin/Yuli.
Absolutely... he sounded much better when he was the college player of the year and was killing the ball in the minors. That damn clubhouse spread though.... too many meats/cheeses.... lets hope he's found the cure for that food poisoning.
Tyler White playing 2B in first ST game tomorrow: RF Marisnick LF Fisher SS Bregman DH Gattis 1B Reed 3B Davis 2B White C Stassi CF Kemp P Armenteros Replace Bregman with Mayfield, Marisnick with Tucker, and Gattis with Kemmer and you might have the opening day lineup for Fresno. Pretty solid.
