This was a conservative scouting report before he blew up in the last month at Lancaster. I project him to hit for average with power to boot. A year from now, he should be close to the Majors and we should have a great idea what type of player he is going to become. I project Kyle Tucker grades like these. Hit: 65 Power: 55 Run: 50 Arm: 60 Overall: 60 This scouting report is like when you look up the value of your home in the internet. A conservative floor projection.
The farm is in very good position to deal upper level prospects after what they've done in the last 2 years (drafts, int'l signing, trades). Looks at the prospects in the system age 20 or younger: 1B Yordan Alvarez, $4M signee, age 17 IF Jonathan Arauz, high ceiling SS age 17 IF Miguel Sierra, dominated Appy league at age 18 IF Freudys Nova, top 10 int'l signed this season OF Kyle Tucker, top 5 pick, top 50 MLB prospect, held his own in full season ball at age 19 OF Daz Cameron, top 15 talent in '15 draft, age 19 OF Gilbert Celestino, top 15 talent in '15 int'l class, already stateside at age 17 RHP Francis Martes, top 50 prospect, dominated AA at age 20 RHP Forrest Whitley, top 20 talent in '16 draft, top 100 prospect, age 18 RHP Franklin Perez, $1M int'l signee, dominated A ball at age 18 RHP Albert Abreu, killer stuff and pitched well in full season ball at age 20 RHP Lupe Chavez, look at Houstons track record with these types of guys (Paulino, Martes), pitched well in GCL still a teen Add in Lourdes Gurriel and the lower levels are pretty stacked and would ensure the farm would still produce in spite of 1-2 blockbuster trades thst might ship out guys like Fisher, Reed, Teoscar, Paulino, Musgrove, Feliz, etc.
Left-hand pitching is hard to come by. That's why if Chris Sale becomes available in the offseason, Astros should jump into trading for him. I wouldn't touch Kyle Tucker because a left hand hitter who could hit for power as well as for high average are really rare. Plus I hate trading a prospect Astros drafted pretty high and is developing nicely. Kyle Tucker and if the Astros sign Lourdes Gurriel, would be insurance in case George Springer gets too expensive and leaves via free agency in the future.
It's nice to have these problems, as opposed to years past of barren minor league systems. And to have options if current guys get too expensive.
A while back there was this draft pick, 6'4", 200 lbs, one of the top prospects in all of baseball. Higher rated than Kyle Tucker in fact. One site said this about him. This player is the best pure hitter in this draft class, certainly the best pure college hitter. He's got emerging power that's likely to see him hit around 25 home runs per year. Guess who? Colin freaking Moran, who interestingly enough, has the exact same career minor league slugging percentage as Tucker. Now who knows how Tucker will fare, hopefully a lot better than the obviously overhyped Moran, but you guys are super deep in the homerism.
Yep, it isn't 100%...Odds are great he develops the strength....but if you read my posts there is still uncertainty on the loft in the swing. Moran is strong enough to hit homers, but hasn't developed the swing.
Yea, but Moran was 21 getting drafted out of North Carolina and Kyle Tucker was only 18 out of High School. Tucker is ahead of the curve when it comes to developing as a player. Don't worry Comet, if Tucker still has similar numbers a year from now, then you have a valid argument. In my opinion, I think he is going to take off next year as far as numbers go.
That's an interesting comp, Tucker to Moran. Similar sized players who both have their hit tool to carry them. That said, that's about as far as it goes. Tucker has a much better defensive profile (with plus RF defense as his floor and average CF defense as his ceiling). Also Tucker is much further ahead in his development curve than Moran was at the same stage. Part of that is just the nature of HS vs college draftees, but when you look at what Tucker did this season in A/A+ at 19 (wRC+ 119/188) vs what Moran did at the same level but 1-2 years older (127/110), it's easy to see Tucker is a much better prospect even if you ignore speed/defense.
No doubt Tucker has a higher defensive upside but that's the most optimistic projection of his defensive floor I've seen. That's basically Springers defensive profile and he's way more athletic than Tucker is projected to be. Some articles I've seen say definite corner outfielder, possibly left field.
Moran has fallen way behind on the Astros 3B depth chart but ... I would be surprised if the Astros have given up on him. The Astros could trade him, but I don't see them settling for deep discount. Moran could surprise next year. I would not bet on it, but I also would not rule it out.
Had high hopes for Moran. Thought he could be a Matt Carpenter type guy which would've been great. He just has a lackadaisical swing to me.
Tucker Jr and Moran are both LH...? Is there anything else I'm missing that would make them in any way similar players? Not physically, not calendar-ily, not athletically, not positionally, why are people comparing those 2 guys?
Well the argument is about power projection being a basic primer based on players who have large frames to add weight/strength. Colin Moran was roughly the same height/weight as Tucker is now and he was projected to hit for power. He was super hyped by Luhnow as being this polished, great hit tool guy. If you've seen Moran play then you know that guy is going nowhere fast. Honestly I like Tucker's swing, it's beautiful, but I think we get carried away with projections.
Power projection by scouts rely on more than frame size. Bat speed, wrist speed, how the ball comes off the bat all play a big part. Power is also one of the easier skills to project accurately at an early age. There are certainly players that fail to measure to their power projections (for example Rocco Baldeli) by in many cases those players were injured. Tucker has the best bat speed in the organization (with Gurriel and his absurd bat speed called up). He is likely to hit with above average to very good power; but is young and in the lower minors. If he hits well at multiple levels next season; then we can start to get excited. We have been spoiled with Correa (even with a down year) and Gurriel all hitting well and meeting expectations. The reality is there is a good possibility that Tucker never becomes a big league regular.
What about them? It's kind of funny how people pidgeonhole a guy at age 19-21, and then all of the sudden he matures out at 24sh and, huh, whodathunkit?
Gurriel hitting well and meeting expectations. Gurriel has surpassed my expectations. Bregman and Gurriel both have contributed greatly to the Astros playoff run.
