Why would Gause leave so much money on the table? I mean it's good for the organization but damn thats 55% he left.
Thanks for the analysis. Who are the other potential overslot guys and how important are they compared to Mac Marshall. From what I've read Mac Marshall seems to be far and away the most talented of the bunch - would you guys have a big preference toward signing him and letting whatever other overslot guys go or sign most of the other overslot guys and miss on Mac? It seems moot since he's already indicated thanks but no thanks, but I'm curious.
^ Additional comment: I prefer quality over quantity at this point so if Mac Marshall is a near blue chip prospect I'd prefer to land him than take fliers on lesser, decent prospects.
You are correct. What has been reported is that Aiken and the Astros have a verbal agreement and that the bonus is $6.5m. The math that I posted might be best regarded as back-of-the-napkin calculations.
Because the alternative was to make $0? It isn't like he was a big time prospect. IIRC, he was offered $100K out of High School. He's somebody I'm very excited to see.
Mac Marshall wanted first round monies ($2m) and that is why he fell to round 21. Marshall was rated higher than Jason Nix, our fifth round pick, who reportedly is signing in the neighborhood of $1m. IIRC Marshall was ranked as a mid comp round pick and Nix was ranked as a mid second round pick. Ben Smith, our 17th round pick, is reportedly asking for overslot, i.e. more than $100,000. He had TJ surgery in April and will not play until next year. The TJ surgery and off-time hurts his value, so I don't expect much if any overslot for him. IIRC Mike Elias (Director of Amateur Scouting) said that Smith had 10th round talent before his injury. Another caveat about my back-of-the-napkin math, 1-37: Derek Fisher and 4-106: Daniel Mengden have not signed yet and I have not read any rumors about what it would take to sign them. Their slot monies are $1,534,100 and $494,800, respectively. For all I know they both may want overslot monies as well.
Mac Marshall was probably compensation round - 2nd rounder on talent. Unfortunately we won't get Fisher signed until his CWS is over.
It sounds like our best hope is to scrounge up enough money to offer clear 1st round pick money. Based on some of math and numbers in this thread it seems our best/only shot at getting to the additional `$400k needed to get to a ~$2M offer is to sign Fisher under slot. This seems unlikely since AJ Reed who went only 4 picks later got full slot and he's a SR while Fisher is only a JR. Maybe we'll get lucky though since Fisher is coming off an injury, a trip to the CWS, and has not exceeded all expectations on the field.
In that case it sounds like Marshall is not the prospect McCullers was (I believe mid 1st round talent). Nonetheless, sounds like he would arguably be our second best prospect coming from this draft (though likely behind Fisher and Reed). Would be a huge coup, however unlikely.
Since Marshall was drafted outside of the top ten rounds the first 100k of his bonus would not count against the pool. If fisher an the aggie pitcher sign for slot, I think they could put together an offer around 1.8 (assuming Nix signs at 1 million). I wouldn't assume that Nix is going to sign for a million though. Reports prior to the draft had him asking for "well over seven figures" whatever that means. I wouldn't be surprised if Nix signed for Rio Ruiz type money (1.5-1.75)
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>The Astros signed undrafted free agent Aaron Vaughn out of Northwest Nazarene University <a href="http://t.co/IZW7De8sZS">http://t.co/IZW7De8sZS</a></p>— Astros County (@AstrosCounty) <a href="https://twitter.com/AstrosCounty/statuses/477784362566844416">June 14, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> Northwest Nazarene is a Division II school in Nampa, Idaho. According to the article, Vaughn is the school's winningest pitcher, and will start his career off in the GCL. 2014: 13 appearances (11 starts, 7 complete games, 1 shutout), 9-4, 3.32 ERA, 84 IP, 102 H (7 HR), 44 R (31 earned), 18 BB, 76 K, 1.43 WHIP, .302 opponent average Also.... Bryan Radziewski (9) signed for $125,000 according to the BA database. That's $27K under slot.
The Astros have spent $9,386,400 of their pool allotment. Daniel Mengden has agreed to undisclosed terms, Derek Fisher is still in the College World Series, and the chances of signing Jacob Nix are probably really, really good. The pursuit of Mac Marshall is over. He's already finished his 1st week at LSU.
I doubt the Astros have the money to sign Marshall, but the fact that he finished one week at LSU doesn't mean he can't be signed. Zach Lee spent nearly an entire summer at LSU while practicing with the football team and ultimately signed with the Dodgers at the deadline (which was further back in the old draft format).
Fixing the math ... I can think of 1.75 million reasons why Marshall might change his mind :grin: Marshall is asking for $2m, though.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>14th-rder Nick Tanielu signs w/<a href="https://twitter.com/astros">@Astros</a> for $200k ($100k counts vs pool). Washington State, gifted hitter, will move to 2B as pro. <a href="https://twitter.com/MLBDraft">@MLBDraft</a></p>— Jim Callis (@jimcallisMLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/jimcallisMLB/statuses/477834896266641409">June 14, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Darn, can't edit the OP anymore. Anyway, Edwin Medina (33) has signed. Also, BA's Minor League Transactions feature also reports that Connor Goedert (15), Bryan Muniz (22), Dexture McCall (31), Justin Ferrell (36), and DD (37) have also agreed to terms. Bold - signed/will sign/reportedly agreed to terms Italics - will not sign/has indicated that he will not sign Round 1: Brady Aiken, LHP, Cathedral Catholic High School, San Diego (committed to UCLA); has reportedly agreed to a deal with a $6,500,000 bonus, which would be $1,422,100 under the slot recommendation. Competitive Balance Round A: Derek Fisher, OF, Virginia (JR) Round 2: A.J. Reed, 1B, Kentucky (JR) ; signed for $1,350,000 (slot recommendation) Round 3: J.D. Davis, 3B, Cal State Fullerton (JR); signed for $748,600 (slot), will report to Tri-City Round 4: Daniel Mengden, RHP, Texas A&M (JR) Round 5: Jacob Nix, RHP, Los Alamitos High School, Los Alamitos, California (committed to UCLA); terms currently unknown Round 6: Brock Dykxhoorn, RHP, Central Arizona College (JUCO SOPH); story, assignment unknown and pending work visa Round 7: Derick Velazquez, RHP, Fresno State (JR); expecting to go to Tri-City after he signs; signed for $207,800 (slot recommendation) Round 8: Bobby Boyd, CF, West Virginia (JR); expected to report to Tri-City, signed for $140,000 ($22,800 under slot) Round 9: Bryan Radziewski, LHP, Miami (redshirt JR; listed as a senior); signed for $125,000 ($27,000 under slot), to Tri-City Round 10: Jay Gause, RHP, Faulkner (JR); story, signed for $65,000 ($77,100 under slot) Round 11: Dean Deetz, RHP, Northeastern Oklahoma A&M (JUCO SOPH; technically a redshirt freshman) Round 12: Ryan Bottger, LF, University of Texas-Arlington (JR); on preliminary Tri-City roster Round 13: Jamie Ritchie, C, Belmont (JR); on preliminary Tri-City roster Round 14: Nick Tanielu, 2B, Washington State (JR); signed for $200,000 ($100,000 above slot for draft picks in rounds 11-40) Round 15: Connor Goedert, 3B, Neosho County CC (Kansas) (JUCO SOPH) Round 16: Ramon Laureano, LF, Northeastern Oklahoma A&M (JUCO SOPH) Round 17: Ben Smith, LHP, Coastal Carolina (JR) Round 18: Antonio Nuñez, SS, Western Oklahoma State College (JUCO SOPH) Round 19: Ruben Castro, C, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy & High School Round 20: Trent Woodward, C, Fresno State (SR) Round 21: Mac Marshall, LHP, Parkview High School, Lilburn, Georgia (committed to LSU) Round 22: Bryan Muniz, 1B, Southeastern (Florida) (JR); not to be confused with J.D. Martinez's alma mater, Nova Southeastern University Round 23: Ryan Thompson, RHP, Campbell (SR) Round 24: Vince Wheeland, RHP, Oklahoma State (SR) Round 25: Zach Davis, LHP, Central Missouri (SR) Round 26: Mott Hyde, 2B, Georgia Tech (SR) Round 27: Brandon McNitt, RHP, Stony Brook (SR) Round 28: Aaron Greenwood, RHP, Ole Miss (SR) Round 29: Richard Gonzalez, C, Alabama State (JR) Round 30: Sean McMullen, OF, LSU (SR); to Greeneville Round 31: Dexture McCall, 1B, Hillsborough Community College (Florida) (JUCO SOPH) Round 32: Robert Kahana, RHP, Kansas (JR) Round 33: Edwin Medina, OF, University of St. Thomas (Miami) (JR) Round 34: Joshua James, RHP, Western Oklahoma State College (JUCO SOPH) Round 35: Keegan Yuhl, RHP, Concordia University (Irvine, California) (SR) Round 36: Justin Ferrell, RHP, Connors State College (Oklahoma) (JUCO SOPH) Round 37: Eric Peterson, RHP, North Carolina State (JR) Round 38: Michael Foster, 2B, Northeastern (JR) Round 39: Brad Antchak, SS, Northeastern Oklahoma A&M (JUCO FR) Round 40: Alex Hernandez, 2B, Miami (SR) Undrafted Free Agents Aaron Vaughn, RHP, Northwest Nazarene (Idaho) Dayne Parker, IF, Wichita State Kyle Gehrs, LHP, Central Missouri John Gatlin, IF, Ole Miss (converting to pitcher)
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>RHP Jacob Nix,Astros 5th-round pick from Los Alamitos HS in Calif., says he has agreement& will sign next Wed. N Houston: "Dream come true"</p>— Mark Berman (@MarkBermanFox26) <a href="https://twitter.com/MarkBermanFox26/statuses/479075522186469377">June 18, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>RHP Jacob Nix,Astros 5th-round pick: "For the amount that I wanted 2take me away from UCLA,I'm really surprised we were able 2get it done"</p>— Mark Berman (@MarkBermanFox26) <a href="https://twitter.com/MarkBermanFox26/statuses/479075645914222593">June 18, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>5th-rder Jacob Nix agrees w/<a href="https://twitter.com/astros">@Astros</a> on $1.5 mil (pick 136 value = $370,500). Calif HS RHP inconsistent as senior but also up to 96 <a href="https://twitter.com/MLBDraft">@MLBDraft</a></p>— Jim Callis (@jimcallisMLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/jimcallisMLB/statuses/479081504233226240">June 18, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
