2012 Fantasy Football - Sleepers/Busts/Strategies/etc

Exactly!

If more than half your league is nabbing top QBs with their top 2 picks left and right you take the load up on high end backs and receivers.

This is going to be an exciting year for fantasy football, lots of possible breakout players with some potential big time busts as well. Then again, it's pretty much like that every year.

 

I think this will be wildest year since I've been playing. Just a lot of risk, uncertainty, and opportunity out there. There are at least four TE#2's that might make solid fantasy TE#1's. That's nuts. You also have an unprecedented number of stud WR's, or what should be stud WR's like White, Nicks, and Wallace being offset by the WR#2 counterparts from their own teams. Then you have a team full of fantasy gold in the Patriots that have molded themselves in such a way that no single player will ever be the focal point of their passing attack on a consistent basis.

 

Good discussion here, folks -- I see myself checking back in here for tips between now and my draft.

I do have a question though. My PPR league releases the draft order early and I drew the top pick. I've never had the top pick, and in a 14-team snake, that's a painfully long time to wait. Does anyone have any advice for me after I nab Foster?

 

14 team leagues, PPR, you've gotta handle a lot of your strategy on the fly. How many flex spots? How many WR spots? If you have 1 or 2 flex spots and 2-3 WR spots go with best player available. I imagine I wouldn't aim for a QB. WR is deep. Maybe land two back-to-back. Don't skimp on the TE either, they can be big in PPR, bigger than a RB2, especially 14 deep.

Remain flexible man. Like Morey.

 

I would go best receiver:

Julio Jones
Hakeem Nicks
Brandon Marshall
AJ Green


IMO you could throw Dez Bryant in that mix, his off field issues may nullify that. If not you could always take a good QB, maybe someone like Cam Newton, Mike Vick, Tony Romo could be available.

If I were you I'd go BPA after Foster don't shorten yourself, even if you have a RB if the next best is another RB go for it... trust me you'll regret missing out on the next best when selecting based on position, bye, suspensions etc.

 

If I had the number 1 pick in the draft I would not take foster, or any running back for that matter.

People like to label foster, rice, shady as #1 backs, who are clearly better (vbd = value based drafting), but I for one don't see it that way. Take a guy like Matt Forte. An owner could draft him in the late first and get as much production as you'd get from foster. Where is the value in that?

Not to mention that foster is an injury risk, rice has had nearly 300 carries each of the past 2 seasons and in 2009 he had 254 carries. The guy is overdue to be scaled back. Same goes for McCoy.

You need points producers with your number 1 pick, not some pie in the sky idea of a value based drafting concept that rarely works because half of the owners in the league have no clue how to make a guy pay for NOT drafting a running back.

If you draft a rb in round 1 you run the risk of a guy picking up aaron rodgers, gronk and then in the 3rd or 4th round picking up fred jackson or somebody and while foster is hurt that other owner is running over you with 75 points a week from those 3 guys.

Therefore, if I were you and I had the number 1 pick in the draft (short of drafting a bad as qb who is head and shoulders above the guy you get in the 5th round) I'd draft Calvin Johnson number 1 overall. Because you aren't going to find another player, especially in the important positions (rb and wr) that can consistently outperform every other player at his position.

 

A better idea would be to trade down to #4, then.

 

Just FYI, Jackson was out waaayy longer than Foster, so how is he the bigger injury risk?...

Again this is coming from the guy whom just like the other have been overvaluing Mathews just because Tolbert and V-Jax are gone. Again a waaaaayy higher injury risk than Foster and mcCoy. Btw Ray Rice is as durable as they come and he's always been top 5 fantasy back.

You obviously have some sort of agenda against the top RBs besides YOUR top RBs. I'd love to be the guy competing in your league waiting for you to pick forte 1st overall and let guys like Ray, Arian, LeSean, hell even Maurice fall to me.

Good luck with that master plan of yours.

 

Actually, if you look at previous posts of mine, once Mathews got into top 6 territory, I said that I'd have to change my plans, and that's when I adopted the running back by committee idea.

You also misunderstand that when I mentioned fred jackson he's also not being drafted 1st overall. I said that somebody will pick him up in the 4th round and still have a shot to outperform arian foster.

listen, value based drafting often doesn't work because the owners below you end up filling out other needs and they wait to draft rbs in later rounds. There is really only 1 way to get value from your backs and that is by drafting more than 1 within the first 3 rounds and then making sure that you draft 3 or 4 good back ups. In another words, you need to take it upon yourself to thin the herd.

you don't have to agree, it is just my opinion.

 

matt forte is not going to get the numbers that he got last year.
michael bush got there, and brandon marshall too.

picking a forte/bush committee that would be good.

and how foster is an inury risk over matt forte?

 

So you're saying that someone should definitely draft RBs in the first 3 rounds of the draft yet stay away from the guys that have been money the last 3-4 years?

AND you should be weary because that other guy will swoop in, in the 4th round and nab the best RB, who by the way is 30 years old, and STEAL the guy that had one pretty awesome 1/2 season before missing the other half of that same season and will outperform Foster and the rest of the #1s even tho the bills brass has more often than once stated they will be using the younger backup RB to split the carries with F-Jax?

And Mathews was never "top 6" territory, you started changing your plans when he became injured (yet again) in last nights preseason game.

There is a reason people are saying top RBs are at a premium this year and you'd be better off with a top 3 pick. I would rather be assured to get consistent top tier points week in and week out from a top 3 back than have to waste 2 starting slots hoping that DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart even come close to equaling the same amount.

Like I said I would be more than happy to trade for your #1 pick for my 12th overall pick if we shared a league together. Just as many others here would say.

 

It's a fun league -- 1 QB, 2 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR/RB/TE flex spots. We still do 6 pts per TD and throw in a third of a point per return yard. This gives us plenty of flexibility to build the team the way you want. I went early with Rodgers last year and it worked pretty well, but I think being flexible is key, and good QBs can be had later after the elite are gone. I'm likely going to wing it like I always do.

 

I'm with you on ignoring byes -- there's over a month of games before that could be come an issue. I try to stay away from injured players if they have a history (Mathews). My teams usually end up riddled with injuries, so I at least want to start out healthy.

 

Calvin is a gutsy call for #1 overall. I understand the line of thinking, but I couldn't do it. In a PPR, Foster is a no-brainer to me. He gets a healthy work load, sees touches in the passing game, and is always a threat to break a big gain. RBs are tough to come by in our league, and anytime you can get anyone that you can start every week without worry it's a blessing.

Players will always get hurt. I know Foster has been out before, but he's tough, and that's all I can ask for. I feel that with lots of RBBC, a workhorse RB is so rare that you have to get one where you can. WR is still a pretty deep position, deeper than RB, especially in our league when a random Raiders speedster can save your week returning the ball when you're in a jam with byes or injuries.

 

I think you are trying very hard to find ridiculousness in my post without regard for what I said. If you want to actually read what I said and then debate it fine, but if you are just going to continue on this rant about how I am switching positions then by all means don't let me stop you.

By the way people are also saying that quarterbacks are a premium as well. And if you think that foster "assures" you of a top 3 back week in and week out go ahead and make that call.

You also seem to think that it is a foregone conclusion that deangelo and jonathan stewart are a waste of roster space just by the fact that carolina splits carries between the two, or maybe it is the fact that everybody tells you that they are a waste of space. However, let me point out that both denagelo and stewart are both top 10 talented backs on their own. Unlike the traditional handcuffs and that is why that year in and year out they gain more yards as a duo than many of the so called #1 backs. This is history that I am explaining to you. Go back and look at the last 3 years and 2 out of the 3 years their numbers as a due have been off the charts. If you wish to ignore those numbers be my guest. If you want to side with the mathew berrys of the world, by all means. But don't say that I didn't warn you about it.

 

Actually, correction. 3 out of the last 4 years going back to 2008. Last year, even with cam running wild, they performed.

You however don't think they can repeat their performance of last year. Well, they done it 3 of the last 4 years. But don't let history get in your way.

 

I'm going by the last 3 pages of you worshiping Mathews and *****ting on guys at the top of the draft with no regard of how much of an injury risk he is. THEN you go on to say how Foster will be outperformed by Jackson and is a much higher injury risk than Jackson because.... Jackson missed the entire second half of the season while Foster was out a few preseason games and 2 regular season games? If I'm not mistaken.

My point this whole time has been that if you go into the draft with an agenda, in your case being; avoid top RBs while filling up with guys splitting carried with not just each other, but the QB, the 3rd RB, oh and don't forget eventually those teams do tend to air it out every once in a while.

So in all, what I'm trying to explain is you can't predict injuries. Hell Foster, McCoy, or Rice can suffer major injuries for all we know. BUT I'll take my chances rolling with one stud and maybe going after a DeAngelo in the much later rounds of the draft, while nabbing some solid #2 RBs with #1 potential. It's very hard to say Williams and Stewart are guaranteed either if one of them were to go down.

Again its much harder to predict who out of the 2 will gain the most fantasy point week in and week out, so I'd much rather put my money on one stud that can provide me the best chance at that, while playing the best 2nd tier RBs on my roster.

Your strategy is just not making any sense to me and again, I'm almost positive I'm not the only one here seeing this. I'm just the one responding.

 

Are you butt hurt because I don't worship foster like you do, texans homer? Is that it? Newsflash: I also mentioned McCoy in that same post, who I was going on and on about last year as my number 1 guy.

But, just so you don't have to go over pages and pages of Mathews worship here is the post I am referring to:

What did I just say there? Did I say that mathews is getting so hyped it is ridiculous? And yet you CLAIM that I am worshiping him?

You take many things out of context because you are seeing red over the mere fact that I would mention lowly fred jackson could put up numbers similar to Arian Foster. It's actually pretty funny. Are we even talking about strategy any more or just hero worship?

Also for your information nabbing deangelo in the later rounds is what I plan to do as well. You don't think I plan to take him round 1 do you?

 

I'm loving that trade I made sending Marshall, McGahee, and Blackmon for BJGE, Torrey Smith and Decker.

 

That's a really good deal. I thought you were the one recieving blackmon, Marshall and McGahee. I like your side of it better.