2012 Fantasy Football - Sleepers/Busts/Strategies/etc

That's all well and good, but the caveat is, how do you know which of those quality backs to start each week? Playing the match-up game is always a gamble, and it's a real drag having a player explode for 100+ yards and 2 TDs sitting on your bench, while the player you started gets diddly-squat.

There's something to be said for having a dependable player like Ray Rice who you can plug in each and every week without much stress. Granted, that strategy only works for those lucky enough to land a top 3 pick.

What is your criteria for deciding who to insert into your starting lineup from the group of "quality backs" on your roster?

 

Great timing. I was about to add some more of my predraft strategy.

One idea I have been kicking around is drafting Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams and starting both players when the matchup is right.

Consider this: had you drafted both last year and played both you would have gotten: 2000 all purpose yards and 65 receptions and 12 tds.

That is not too bad.

I know the objections: Cam is the goal line back now. Tolbert is in the mix.

But I like these guys chances even with all of that. Plus, who's to say that Carolina doesn't draft J.stew midseason and then you'd have too quality backs in BETTER sistuations.

As far as matchups go, I base it on 2 criteria: first, do I think the player will get 15 to 20 carries, and what kind of run defense they are against. Honestly, running backs are one of the easiest positions to predict (as far as in season matchups go.)

 

And oddly enough I think I can benefit from this development. I'm still willing to draft the guy 14th overall if he lasts that long.

Injuries happen.

 

Might as well take McFadden.

 

If the guy drops past the 2nd round, I'm definitely seeing the value in that pick. Some guys have been taking Mathews as high as 10th and have already suffered the consequences.

I like the guy and all, he's just not durable enough to be a solid number 1. I consider Murray in that same boat, hell Run DMC could be put right in there as well. A monster when on the field but jack-squat when he's out with foot injuries half the year.

If I were to take your approach, RB by commitee or RB tandem, I'd put my chances on a duo like Forte/Bush or Foster/Tate, not Williams/Stewart. This is the only fantasy sport where handcuffs are at the upmost importance. And ont top of that it remains to be seen if Stewart can even last an entire season with decent health throughout as well.

Injuries always play a role in FFB, sometimes your on the lucky end (Bush when McFadden went down) and sometimes your not (every single Lions RB last season).

 

Hillis/Charles might be an underrated handcuff this year.

Personally I'm putting stock in Jackson/Spiller.

 

I actually like the Hillis/Charles handcuff, especially because of the value you can get for the pick. If I'm not mistaken Charles is down to being taken average 5th-6th round selection and Hillis is falling all the way down to 9th-10th round pick.

I like the Spiller/Jackson handcuff but far to many draftees are buying too high on CJ imo. For the most part Freddie has kept a good bill of health and last year was just a freak year were nearly ALL top RBs were down at one point or another.

(Foster, McFadden, F. Jackson, Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte) etc.

 

Even with FJax's great numbers last season before getting hurt, Spiller filled in nicely and there is talk this year that they will split carries. It just makes sense to nab both because they'll both be getting touches and if one gets hurt the other becomes top 5 potential.

 

I wouldn't touch that, I would look at their other RB (who is in Oakland now) - Mike Goodson. The guy can produce.

 

Goodson is under the radar, and I agree he can excel in the ZBS because he is very shifty.

He suffered an injury scare after getting crushed a couple days ago, but appears that he'll be ok and should be back on the field within the next couple weeks.

 

I've run with that exact handcuff somewhere the past two years in a row. Never paid off. They both look good now though, but the Bills haven't really shown me that they can use both of them at the same time effectively. I think Spiller goes too high to make them a handcuff duo. But yeah, it'd be nice to have. Especially if Spiller started to do something when the line him up at WR.

 

Already ditched my thoughts about going with a QB early. There are 2-4 QB's I believe in that will go late. Crap.

 

You can get a QB whenever. Even something like a Cutler/Palmer duo would probably suffice.

WRs appear deep.

The evolution of the spread offense is creating a divide in fantasy. All signs point to load up on RB early.

 

The reason I'm probably going QB in first this year is I'm just muther****ing jinxed when it comes to RBs. The only years I've been successful in fantasy is when I've gone non-RB in first round. Last year I was on the fence between Rodgers and Charles at 6. Guess which way I went.

 

I see your point. I may lean towards that handcuff in my draft this sunday, good thing is it's a ppr league so guys like Spiller would help x2 in that style.

 

Sam Bradford seems a little loopy. Took too many hits last year?

I saw this about an hour ago and thought it was funny. Sorry for **** quality.

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/cAgPm999R4o" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

I always take QB's late. Romo, Shaub, Rodgers, Rivers, Strafford - had em' all before they were anybody. But last year I botched things in several leagues by targeting Josh Freeman. So if Rodgers is there at 5 this year I'd probably take him. I might even look at Brees or Brady in the 2nd I just think things get even more risky than usual after pick 4. If I had to choose between MJD or Rodgers at 5... I might go Rodgers. But there's so many sexy QB picks that will be around late. Guys - I'm struggling, hope it works itself out come draft day.

 

I tried out the QB by committee approach a few years ago during the 2006-07 season. I ended up with a Vick/Romo combo (both were mid/late round draft options that year).

Both players went on to have very good seasons. However, it was one of the most stressful years of fantasy football ever. It seemed that the one I decided to bench nearly always put up better numbers than the one I chose to start. Playing the match-up based on the opposing defense did not seem to work very well at all.

I almost always choose to take a QB early now. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees have all been pretty good to me in recent years.

 

Man, my league snatches up QBs like a mofo in the first round. I'd guess that five are taken in the first 20 picks (14-team league).

 

I'd love that. Plenty of good QB's available after a 5-guy run. The dropoff for RB's and WR's is way bigger than it is for QB's. Got Stafford and Kolb in a 14-team league last year. Finished 1st, lost in finals.