In 2010, Matt Schaub threw for 4,370 yards & 24 TDs; Arian Foster ran for 1,616 yards & scored 18 TDs. Andre Johnson totaled 1,216 receiving yards and scored 8 TDs. The Texans went 6-10. Why? Their defense was atrocious. They failed to defend a Hail Mary v. Jacksonville; allowed a game-winning touchdown drive to Mark Sanchez with less than 1:00 left and no TOs; they blew a 13-point 4Q lead to Tim Tebow. They gave up 30+ points in 8 games (27 & 29 in two others). Per Football Outsiders, the Texans ranked 31st in defense & the team lost 8 of their final 10. Fans wanted Gary Kubiak fired. In 2011, the Texans went 10-6. Their offense (led by offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan) remained great. Their defense, meanwhile, went from bad to great, carrying the team during a 7-game win streak that saw Schaub go down with a season-ending injury. The Texans won 3 straight without Schaub, holding opponents to 13, 10 and 19 points. They won a playoff game with a third string rookie QB. So what changed? Three things: 1) the most important change came when the Texans fired defensive coordinator Frank Bush & hired Wade Phillips. Phillips turned the defense around; from 29th to 4th in a single season. Coaching matters. 2) they signed Jonathan Joseph & Danieal Manning in free agency. Joseph was a big get (but not the biggest get: that was Nnamdi Asomugha, who went to the Eagles and flamed out). Manning was far less heralded, known as much for being a return specialist as a defensive back. Joseph was a no-brainer; Manning more off the radar - but both made an impact. Personnel decisions matter. 3) they drafted JJ Watt. Yeah, I know... "Got it! They just need to draft a Hall of Fame defensive lineman with no first or second round pick? Easy!" But here's the thing: 2012 was Watt's breakout year, not 2011. He had a very nice rookie campaign (48 tackles; 5.5 sacks) and made an impact - but he wasn't a slam dunk, no brainer pick. Scouting & drafting matters. I vividly remember that 2011 offseason - these steps did NOT move the needle with fans (other than maybe Joseph - though there was consternation he wasn't Asomugha). Phillips' hiring was widely panned and mocked; nobody had heard of Manning; Watt was famously booed at the Texans' draft party. Fans wanted the team burned to the ground. But these three decisions led to the best two-year stretch in team history. So it *can* be fixed in an offseason and it doesn't necessarily require giant, headline-grabbing moves. If they hire the right general manager and the right head coach, there's no reason the Texans can't win 10+ games next year.
Texans have too many holes on the roster. They should trade tunsil for a first and second round picks, plus it’ll free up cap space.
2011 also saw Mario Williams go down with a pec by game 5. 2010 Kareem Jacskon was known more for visiting **** fights in Latin America than for getting burned on every pass. Team also had "too many holes." At the time Quinn was the guy who couldn't cover a hail Mary. Ninja was overpaid, Connor was injury prone and the cbs were an unfunny joke. You have Watt, Reid, Roby, Jacob Martin and Cunningham to work with. You replace the guys you let go in the 2020 free agency period and you go from there. It's very doable. Don't have to replace every hole.
So... hire Wade Phillips? To be fair, that 2011 defense was littered with 1st and 2nd round picks who rounded into form. Cushing remained great despite his PED's, DeMeco Ryans still there, Kareem Jackson improved after his awful rookie season, Connor Barwin thrived in Wade's system. Brooks Reed may have had his best year (as a rookie) that year. Haven't even mentioned former 1.1 Mario Williams who went down early with a season ending injury. Overall, the 2000's Texans invested a TON of draft resources into their defense, so it makes some sense that the talent could be better coached and a few key additions helped it all click into place. There isn't the collective talent on this defense where simple coaching, 1-2 draft picks, and 1-2 free agents turns it around automatically.
They won 21 games the two years prior. I’m not suggesting they don’t have holes - they very obviously do. But I find it a stretch that their roster is depleted after just a single (albeit bad) offseason.
The Texans currently have five former #1s and three former #2s on their defensive roster. And Adams, Cole & Reid have all shown promise and would likely take steps forward with better coaching.
Sure... but I wasn't just looking at the collective "where they were drafted" and more that the 2011 bunch was still young enough to improve/grow and still had the pedigree of being former high draft picks. Watt/Merciless/Roby are at a slightly different stage of their career vs. where Cushing/Jackson/Barwin were. Cunningham/Reid do have some upside. And I actually think guys like Crossen have outperformed former first round pick Hargraves. All that being said, I agree with you that that collectively this team can be turned around fairly quickly. They had a tremendously difficult schedule this year, fired a coach, had zero running game, and never had both sides clicking at the same time in any game.
Taking a closer look at the ‘10 Texans - I think this defense has more talent/potential - before they added JJ/Manning/JJ in ‘11.
Cunningham = Cushing (lesser version) Reid = Jackson (better version) But who is the 2021 equivalent of Barwin... probably somebody who hasn't been acquired yet, and definitely not the corpse of Merciless. And while I know Watt's 2011 rookie season wasn't his true dominant all-pro self from a sack standpoint, that's largely because he was mostly an interior lineman to start in the 3-4, with Mario/Reed/Barwin serving as the OLB's in Wade's system... and he immediately became an elite run stopper/gap filler from day one. So while the numbers don't support it, he was more impactful than you remember as a rookie. They'll need to hit a major HR on 3rd round draft picks or later to get anything close to what Watt/Reed added as rookies that year. I do think they'll be better simply from a schedule standpoint, and if they can put together any sort of consistent running game... that should alleviate some of the pressure against the defense regardless of personnel/coaching changes.
I agree that this can be turned around pretty quickly, given that we already have the hardest thing to find in place (franchise QB), but I'm just not confident that McNair is competent enough to make the tough decisions to make it happen. Ownership matters.
This team is a mess. We got a lot of money tied up to a bunch of overpaid players that are either average, old, slow or just flat out suck like watt, Mercilus, Murray, Martin, Cobb, McKinney, David Johnson, Cunningham, cooks. Also, the rookies are looking like busts.
Well... he *did* fire BOB - and none of us thought he'd ever do that. Look, he very obviously has to nail the GM hire & we all have every right to be skeptical. But if he does that, it's likely they'll land a good HC (with new GM's input) and those 2 can take over personnel (which is how this team has always operated).
Again, coaching matters. A better staff/system might be able to get value out of some of those guys. I suspect the OL will improve by mere subtraction (Devlin). And some of those guys can be keys to creating cap space. The team is messy - but it has enough parts to win 10 games next year.
If I recall, at that point our huge weakness was secondary play, which we were able to address by signing Joseph (all-pro corner) and Manning. Our running defense and our pass rush was not that bad. As opposed to now, where we can't stop the run nor defend the pass. We have many more holes and less resources to work with.
Well the offense isn't very good. And we don't have top 2 picks next year and not much capspace for a couple years. We should be in rebuild mode rather than quick turnaround mode, imo. 2021-2022 should be shedding big salaries and accumulating picks. 2023 or 2024 we could start signing some expensive FAs
Watson is a top 3-5 QB; they've scored 27+ points in 6 of their last 11 games despite zero running game, a porous offensive line, a depleted receiving corps and incompetent coaching. The offense is a good hire and a few patches away from being very, very good. And people treat the salary cap like it's this immoveable force: they can easily generate cap space. Other than Fuller, they don't have any expensive pending free agents and gutting some of this roster will eliminate some of the waste and save money. No team should ever rebuild with a 25-year old franchise QB.
Somebody said in another thread that we need to hire a defensive minded coach, not an offensive minded coach. Sounds crazy at first, but really, Watson doesn't need to be developed....he's already really really good. What he needs is a defense so he doesn't have to score 35 points a game in order to win. Look at how well Russell Wilson played when Seattle had a Superbowl-caliber defense. He didn't have to carry the entire team on his back every single game. Of course he's still playing well, but you get the point. Franchise QB + top 5 defense might be the answer going forward.
Hey Now!, I probably don't say this enough....even when I disagree with you, I like your optimism. It's not blind faith, it's based on reason and, of course, hope.
I've been thinking about that, too. Hear me out... A defensive-minded coach - in theory, at least - would mean hiring an offensive coordinator whose only job is to coach the offense, as opposed to an offensive-minded head coach who would be head coach + closely monitoring and/or coaching the offense. Right? We avoid the BOB approach of hands-on micro-managing. Not the worst thing.... Kubiak was offensive-minded and closely monitored the playcalling - but we wished he hadn't. Also, there's a lot of talk/focus on the Reid coaching tree... But, man - his best coaches are probably Harbaugh, Rivera, McDermott - all 3 are defensive coaches. Harbaugh turned Jackson over to Roman; McDermott turned Allen over to Daboll.... I'm intrigued by EB - but is he bringing Reid with him?... (To be fair, Pederson and Nagy are probably on this list, too - and they've had success (a lot, with Pederson). But both have struggled to develop young QBs & Pederson has struggled without his offensive coordinator...)
