Yep. Republicans don't stray from the party. Loyalty is the brand. They always circle the wagons, even around someone with serious character flaws like Don John T. (Hell, if Romney had been elected....but I digress.) Very few moderate Republicans stray left, whereas I know more than a few "I just can't stand Hillary!" individuals (what, and you can tolerate Trump?) who exited stage right.
Democrats don't stray either. They simply stay home if not given a choice they like. Republicans are remarkably consistent in their participation and voting habits. Trump forever put to rest the idea that Republicans were willing to disengage if their candidate was sufficiently odious. Republican turnout went up a little, even. The story is always the same. Republicans win if Democrats stay home. Rinse and repeat. If Democrats play it safe and nominate a snoozejob compromise candidate or a slimy identity politics huckster (or worse, both) then they're done.
I agree with you... The thing that hurt the Dems most was their candidate. A lot of people out there just did not like her and things that she did in the past. So they would rather stay at home and not vote or they voted for Trump. Trump's win was more about how much they hated Hillary. T_Man
Don't forget the 1-3% that you can count on to vote for Naders or Steins! I mean, that's intellectually staying home, I guess.
What supports that a progressive candidate has a better chance than a centrist? Anecdotally, I know several suburban Houston GOPers who have flipped to Democrats in this current environment. I’m not sure how much Texas politics/demographics reflect the national, but the shifting (maybe temporary?) of GOP suburban strongholds is interesting.
Because centrists have recently faceplanted across the swing states and progressive policies like medicare-for-all, subsidized education, and a higher minimum wage are gaining in popularity there. Anecdotes are just that. Texas is one of the "safe" places for Republicans to experiment with voting across party lines, but the data is overwhelmingly against this as anything to rely on as an electoral strategy.
Like who? This “face planting metric” seems a bit dubious and subjective. Maybe you have a different definition of centrist but those policies aren’t set in stone and aren’t owned by the more progressive. I think a centrist could meld those policies into something more mainstream. The GOP playbook is to paint all of that as Venezuelan communist stuff. Why lean into that strategy? Says who? I don’t believe that the GOP was experimenting in 2018 in Texas. They went too far right (as they have been doing) and they many districts across the state.
Article is right, but I can't really expect the public to do anything other than it's doing. We hear the refrain often enough that being a Trump alternative isn't enough and that a candidate needs to promise change. I think that's wrong. I think being a Trump alternative is enough. Maybe liberals won't be so excited to turn out on election day to vote for a boring candidate, but those most progressive ones will turn out to vote against Trump. And they know the stakes, they know a protest vote for the Green Party candidate could make their worst fears come true. Meanwhile, a progressive candidate may get people pretty excited and turn them out in droves in safe Democrat states, but you're going to get people in the heartland states genuinely concerned that they could be jumping out of the nativist frying pan and into the socialist fire. They'll stay home. Remember that presidential elections are about delivering states, not the popular vote. So I think he's right that the moderate candidate is the winningest candidate. At the same time, I see the political science unfolding before our eyes -- the pendulum swinging with greater and greater momentum from one side to the other. It is probably impossible that Democratic primary voters will have the self-discipline to make the smart play. They see a chance for home run glory, so they'll pass up the base hit and swing for the fences.
It all comes down to how many people are sick and tired of agent orange, I am just going to vote not Trump.
This is 100% spot on. The way to win is by energizing your base to vote in high numbers. You can't do that with someone like Biden. Any Trump supporter here saying they would consider a centrist Dem is a liar.
Moderate Democrats have not fared well across the Midwest 2016 and beyond. Not the least of which being Hillary Clinton. Whether or not you think they're owned by progressives, they certainly haven't been adopted by centrists. You can sit and wait/wish for that to happen, I'd rather support those who are actually backing winning policies right now. Because it is popular and Republicans are going to call you Communist no matter what you do so why let that dictate your strategy? Says... logic? Texas was not going to go for Clinton. Any Republican could safely abstain or vote third party (or even D) in 2016 without fear of of giving the state to Clinton.
Hillary lost because she’s Hillary Clinton, not because she’s a moderate. I wouldn’t confuse local elections with a national election. Wisconsin didn’t elect some progressive governor but a run of the mill Democrat for example. They haven’t been adopted word for word. Biden’s healthcare plan is ACA 2.0 with expanded Medicaid. I question how popular it actually is when it comes to voting for it. 2016 showed the silent majority is still there and still strong. I said “lean into it” not let it “dictate your strategy”. Significant difference. Again.... Clinton is an outlier as part of a decades long right wing media hit job. I’m talking about trends here not basing stuff on Clinton. The GOP lost many Houston, DFW, and Central Texas traditional suburbs and you think this is some sort of GOP experiment?
I’m of the mind that America is less “conservative” than “Trump’s” platform and less liberal than “Sanders” platform.
All Democrats have to do is turn out the black vote in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. His margin of victory in those states is because Hillary ignored the black vote there and took it for granted that they would turn out.
Democrats have reformed DNC after allegations of swaying votes in favor of Hillary Clinton. People will vote with their heart, just like they did back in 2016. The only saving grace is that despite what Trump says, there are actually quite a few moderates in the democratic party per 538 article.. In general how long do you think the fear mongering against the bad word "socialism" is going to work for the GOP considering that rust belt is struggling and people have warmed up to the idea of Obamacare which was considered socialism before? The middle class is eroding as per this congressional budget office chart: And with advent of automation will only keep on eroding.
