Going into this Saturday's match with the Celtics, I thought it would be fun to analyze the Rockets relative to the other top teams since the transition to small ball. There are six teams with 9 - 2 records over the past 11 games: Celtics Rockets Lakers Bucks Thunder Raptors Sort of a who's who of the best teams in the NBA with the Thunder sitting in for the 8 - 3 Nuggets. Key thing to point out here - the Rockets have had the toughest schedule of these six teams over that period, with six games against top tier opponents. Let's dive right into the deep end. Everyone thinks the Rockets are going to be destroyed on the boards. Total Rebounds per 100 Possessions 48.7 - Bucks (#2 in League behind Nets at 51.1) 47.8 - Lakers 46.1 - Celtics 43.1 - Raptors 42.6 - Thunder 38.0 - Rockets (#29 in League ahead of only the Warriors at 37.7) Okay so how important is rebounding to winning? Three of the teams with 9 - 2 records (Bucks, Lakers, Celtics) are in the Top 50% of the league in rebounding for the period. And three of the teams with 9 - 2 records (Raptors, Thunder, Rockets) are in the bottom 50% of the league in rebounding for the period. Just for giggles, the 8 - 3 Nuggets were also in the bottom half of the league in rebounding for the same period. If the Rockets are getting 9 - 10 less rebounds per 100P than the Bucks / Lakers, then they must be getting a lot less shots per 100 right? Field Goal Attempts per 100 Possessions: 88.6 - Rockets (#11 in League behind the Nets, Hornets, Magic, TBlazers, Pistons, Spurs, Knicks, etc.) 87.1 - Thunder 86.5 - Bucks 86.5 - Raptors 86.2 - Celtics 85.8 - Lakers None of the top six teams in terms of Record for the period are even in the Top 10 in FGAs / 100. The Lakers rank 28th! Frankly this surprised me. You'd think the best teams would take the most shots, but what they actually do is make the most of the shots they do take: FG% 49.8% - Lakers (#2 behind the Nuggets at 51.3%) 49.0% - Thunder 48.5% - Raptors 47.5% - Celtics 47.1% - Bucks 46.4% - Rockets (#15 in the League) The Lakers make up for taking fewer shots, by making a higher percentage of the shots they take. But the Rockets are only average here because (we all know the answer to this) they take more threes: 3PM per 100 Possessions 17.7 - Rockets (#1 in the League over Mavericks at 16.5) 14.3 - Raptors 13.1 - Celtics (#10 in League) 12.8 - Bucks 11.5 - Lakers 10.5 - Thunder Wow - the Rockets average 6.2 more made threes per 100 possessions than the Lakers. That's a big margin to make up considering the Lakers don't actually take as many shots as the Rockets do. But the Lakers make up for that by shooting a WAY better percentage on 2 point shots, right? RIGHT???? 2P% 57.8% - Lakers 56.1% - Rockets 55.4% - Raptors 54.9% - Bucks 54.6% - Thunder 51.2% - Celtics Again - surprising until you remember that the Rockets don't take crappy two point shots (SUCK IT ANTOINE WALKER). The Lakers make, on average, just over 1 and half more 2 point shots per 100 possessions than the Rockets. So the Lakers advantage here is worth about 3.4 more points per 100 possessions while the Rockets advantage in 3PTs made is worth 6.2 points per 100 possessions. The Rockets take more shots than the Lakers per 100 possessions and the shots they take are worth more points. Not surprisingly: Points per Game: 120.8 - Rockets (#2 in League behind Pelicans at 121.6) 120.3 - Lakers 119.2 - Bucks 117.8 - Celtics 115.6 - Raptors 115.3 - Thunder Despite a dreadful 91 point showing against the Suns (when WB sat), the Rockets are leading here. In the 10 games that Harden and Westbrook have both played, they are averaging 123.8 PPG. Surprising the Lakers are over 120 until you realize that 8 of those 11 games have been against weak opponents. Lets normalize for pace because some teams may have lower points per game totals and still be more effective per 100 possessions: Points per 100 Possessions 118.0 - Rockets (#1 in League) 117.6 - Thunder 115.6 - Celtics 115.2 - Lakers 114.2 - Raptors 110.9 - Bucks Okay Rockets still leading the pack and with the exception of the Thunder, it's not even close. Also, what the heck is going on with the Bucks? They actually rank 17th in the league in Points per 100 with that number - interesting! How do the Rockets give up 10+ more rebounds per 100 compared to the Bucks / Lakers, but still outscore them? Turnovers per 100 Possessions 11.7 - Rockets (#3 in League behind the Spurs and Magic) 12.2 - Thunder 12.9 - Celtics 14.2 - Bucks 15.3 - Raptors 15.4 - Lakers Steals per 100 Possessions 10.0 - Rockets (1st in the League over the Bulls) 8.6 - Raptors 8.3 - Thunder 8.3 - Lakers 7.6 - Celtics 6.4 - Bucks Free Throw % 82.6% - Rockets (#3 in the League behind the Hawks and Suns) 81.3% - Thunder 80.1% - Raptors 79.7% - Celtics 77.6% - Bucks 68.1% - Lakers The Rockets are better than the other 5 top teams (and the Nuggets as well) in all of these key peripheral categories. So how do the Rockets overcome losing the rebounding game? It's simple: They take more Field Goal Attempts per game than any other top team And they are better than the Bucks, Lakers, Celtics, Raptors, Thunder (and for good measure the Nuggets, Jazz, Heat, Sixers and Clippers) in: - Points / 100 possessions - 3 Pointers made / 100 - Free Throw % - Turnovers / 100 - Steals / 100 And among these six teams, only the Lakers have a higher 2P% than the Rockets. Just think - the Rockets have done all of this against a tough schedule (6 playoff teams in 11 games) while incorporating 4 new rotation players into their lineup and with their 3rd best scorer in and out due to injuries.
Steph Curry nerve damage on hand could have opponents rest the stars. my projection Lakers 62 wins Rockets 58 Clippers 57 Jazz 52 Nuggets 52
The game is tailored around JH and WB. The third scorer will be whoever is hot. The days of fun loving Eric might be over, he does not get the 3rd most FGAs every night no more. One thing the Rocks are best at, adapting on the fly.
Nerve damage my ass, he and Dray always duck games when they have no chance. Always. Their rep means more than hooping. And they will get exposed for the overrated frauds they are without KD, Iggy and Klay.
great analysis as used to be. Based on analysis, i suppose contenders are gonna work on things against us: * possessions - slowing down tempo - less TOs, less steals allowed - less transition games * 3PA - alowing 2s, but not 3s * 3PT% n 2PT% - cutting connections between James w/ mates, in stead letting Russ go Tiebreaker game - drawing more fouls from (key players) All in all, dragging the games into kinda vintage 70s-80' 'mid-range win it all' games. But, the only question is, 7-game in 14 days, that will be a great challenge to opps' stamina to grind against our system, i.e. how long it would sustain in a 44+min game, how good their defense gonna be. To us…its kinda vice versa, incl whether we could make sure all 3s falling, if stay cool n restarting from taking over control of the tempo and wait. The slippery LAC is still hiding n coasting.
Badass... morey and co have done their homework. David vs Goliath strategy working out pretty good. My question is, can we keep this up in the playoffs? Opposing teams will try to slow down our pace... at least we got better shooters now. I hope we have a slightly bigger rotation... we’ll need the fresh legs in D. Russ won’t be able to take any nights off.
All of this just goes to show that Coach was on to something ALL along. Just needed the right personnel to maximize it. GOOD WORK!
It only works if you have 2 guys that can dominate with the space and flex the defense. Then again you need at least 2 dominant guys to win a championship unless you are named Dream or MJ.
Think you mean Dream and Dirk. MJ had Pippen for all his championships and even though he left Houston with a sour taste, he’s still one of the best to play the game...
Well you missed out lol Very good read, very well organized. Really good post and information. Biggest take away for me...we are a GREAT FT shooting team and one could say we hunt fouls by how many shots we take at the basket. It is just easy to forget that stat and how important it is to success. Make your FTs. Too many teams, too often, leave too many points at the line. Kudos to Westbrook for being his best everywhere including there.
Pippen is not a dominant player. He's probably the best second fiddle ever but he was always a second fiddle. I forgot about Dirk.