Now that we've won a title, I see no reason to make a move like this. There's absolutely no reason to decimate the farm system, especially knowing all of the extension issues coming in the next few years. And if your rationale for making a move is "we can't extend the core" then you don't trade away the guys who would be in line to replace them without getting anyone in return. And if you're giving up a haul like that, you'd better be getting Mike Trout, Clayton Kershaw, & the ghost of Derek Jeter in return.
So basically you agree that him being 35 in 2019 isn't the only factor. On the other three factors you listed...the primary component is whether he is still healthy enough (i.e., does his body handle the wear and tear of another year at catcher to continue as a catcher) to provide enough value at catcher.
That is a last ditch, get it while we can move. If we make that trade then we almost guarantee that a rebuilding phase will be necessary. It will be impossible to maintain success simply by extending proven MLB players, they will simply cost too much and we will have little to no cheap labor to offset costs. If we don't produce some very productive homegrown players over the next 3 years, then we will likely have to rebuild, I don't care what happens with the core 4. Luhnow knows this, and he's a big picture thinker.
Exactly this. There's no reason to destroy the thing they're trying to maintain to continue the prosperity. That was the whole point of the previous 5 years. Build a winner that can remain a consistent contender. Not to be the Marlins.
I don’t disagree with you in practice, but I do think there could be situation in which it would make sense. If their internal evaluations reveal prospects like Tucker, Whitley, Fisher, and Martes really aren’t that good and are very unlikely to be able to replace their current core of Altuve, Correa, etc AND they feel confident that none of their current core will be affordable, then they may as well go all in now then plan for another full rebuild. Like I said, that’s extremely unlikely to be the scenario, but it is in the realm of possibility and if so it would make sense to pull off a trade like that.
Of course age isn't the only factor, but even at current performance, $15M is probably more than they want to spend, and with increased age comes a decrease in performance for most players. I'd guess the team declines the option and offers him $15-$20M over 2 years. We paid $15M for Beltran at 40, but he was coming off 2 good years with the bat and I think we valued veteran leadership more for 2017 than we will in 2019 given the experience our team has now.
You do a trade like that and you maximize our near term chances of winning by compromising our future chances (farm). A debate that has surfaced many times. I have to wonder if the Rays or any other team would give up top guys for our leftover laundry (unproven ML level guys + McHugh) though. It could come to pass if said team evaluates our guys higher than we do, but its still a reach IMO. Really, the only part of your (the) blueprint I like is the thinking that we go out and be as good as we can right now instead of not trying to get better in order to stay better longer in the future. The later, when looked at this way, seems wrong somehow. We pass on the opportunity to get better now? But how do you avoid pulling a Drayton McLane? (emptying the coffers)?
In what realm of possibility is the even feasible for the Astros? For the Rays, they would take that in a heartbeat... Astros would be completely decimated in the farm. This trade doesn't help this Astros team one bit. Maybe Whitley or Martes gets dealt for a bullpen piece but that's about it IMO.
1 for $15 million is too much for an aging catcher, but 2 years for $15-20 million is reasonable? That is funny. Adding a year isn't going to be worth much taking into age, performance, position, current value.
Unless Luhnow has begun smoking PCP there is a infinitely bigger chance of the blockbuster I proposed above than there is of Whitley getting traded for a reliever.
Joel Sherman posted an article where he said most GMs are terrified of Stanton going to the Astros, then interviews Jim Crane, where Crane makes comments about needing money for extensions, but also makes the very interesting comment “there are only four or five teams that can take on that kind of contract at this time and we are one of them.” His previous comments about how well Stanton fits in the lineup and in the stadium with the Crawford Boxes are pretty standard owner banter, but the quote above to me is more interesting as it might indicate a little more discussion has been done than normal. We know Luhnow has asked about Stanton before. And here’s the only way I could see Houston going after Stanton: if they think he is very likely to opt out after 2020. Because if he opts out, he’s only on a $77M/3yr contract, and comes off the books just around the time Altuve and Springer reach free agency and a few years before Correa and Bregman. If they think there’s any real chance he opts in to that extra $210M/7yrs at age 30, I don’t think there’s any way they consider him. But what would a Stanton to Houston trade look like? Obviously there’s a huge subjective calculation there. For me, Stanton’s contract is probably a little under market value. If he were a true free agent, I think he’d be lookin at ~$330M/11yrs. So to me there is a meaningful amount of surplus value there and since Miami is trying to shed payroll I think expect the other team to both give up good prospects and take on the entire contract. Here’s my hypothetical: Astros get: OF Giancarlo Stanton RP Brad Ziegler $15M Marlins get: OF Kyle Tucker SP Francis Martes SP David Paulino SP Hector Perez RP Tony Sipp SP Mike Fiers Marlins get salary relief, 2 elite elite prospects, 2 2nd tier prospects, and 2 veteran pitchers to eat innings. Astros get one of the best players in the game, a solid setup man, and clear 4 40 man roster spots along with Sipp’s contract. The resulting opening day roster: CF Springer 2B Altuve SS Correa LF Stanton 3B Bregman 1B Gurriel/Marwin RF Reddick/Marisnick C McCann/Gattis DH TBD (cheap vet like Granderson or AAA guy: Fisher, White, Moran, Reed, Stassi, etc.) Rotation: Verlander, Keuchel, Morton, McCullers, McHugh Bullpen: Peacock, TBD righty (cheap internal option like Hoyt, Feliz, Gustave, Deetz, McCurry, etc.), TBD lefty (vet free agent like McGee or Minor), Harris, Musgrove, Devenski, Ziegler, Giles Could be the greatest offense in history.
On Stanton, he opts out if he plays well. He opts in if he gets hurt. Very risky. If Astros have $295 MM laying around, a good portion of it needs to be deposited in Altuve's account with the rest going for a couple of relievers.
Great idea, and I wouldn't be opposed to it, but I'd prefer to swap out Ziegler with Kyle Barraclough. Also, couldn't we re-work the deal and make him opt-out after 3 years? Kind of like how we re-worked and voided Verlander's option. I don't think Minute Maid really affects him (it's a pretty offense-neutral stadium, even though the national media likes to force the narrative of MMP being a hitter's paradise), but I think all the protection he will have being in such a stout offensive lineup 1-9, his numbers can and will only improve. So barring injury, he should be an offensive force for the next 3 years, and chances are he will want to opt out anyway, and get paid even more money.
His contract could certainly be reworked prior to a trade, but asking him to give up that huge option is a lot different than getting Verlander to give up 1 year. I’m just guessing but I think you’d have to replace his contract with $120M/3yrs or something crazy like that, which I doubt happens.
Figured I would throw out some hypothetical blockbuster trade options for discussion since the Winter Meetings are this week: Astros get: SP Chris Archer RP Alex Colome OF Cory Dickerson C Wilson Ramos Rays get: SP Collin McHugh SP Francis Martes OF Derek Fisher RP Michael Feliz C Max Stassi SS Jonathan Arauz OF Gilberto Celestino Astros would solve all of their needs in one deal, Rays get to kickoff their rebuild while receiving major league ready replacements, not to mention shed most of their bigger contracts. I suspect that wouldn’t be enough and that they’d have to replace Celestino with Tucker, and either way this assumes the Rays place value on McHugh as a good MoR SP with a couple of years of control who can replace Archer in their rotation and be used as a trade chip down the road. Astros get: RP Zach Britton Orioles get: 3B Colin Moran SP David Paulino RP Brendan McCurry RP Tony Sipp Orioles get 2 Top 100 types in Moran and Paulino plus a good RP prospect, all of whom are on either Mlb ready or on the cusp. Sipp offsets the money as well as gives Baltimore a replacement for Britton, maybe he rebounds. Astros get: RP Brad Hand Padres get: SP J.B. Bukauskas SP Hector Perez 1B AJ Reed SS MiguelAngel Sierra Astros get another elite reliever, Padres get a Top 100 prospect plus 3 very high upside guys. Resulting opening day roster: CF Springer 3B Bregman 2B Altuve SS Correa LF Dickerson DH Gattis C Ramos 1B Gurriel RF Reddick Bench: Marwin, McCann, Marisnick Rotation: Verlander, Keuchel, Archer, McCullers, Morton Bullpen: Peacock, Musgrove, Devenski, Harris, Giles, Hand, Britton, Colome Optioned to AAA: White, Kemp, Davis, Rodgers, Deetz, C Perez, Guduan, Gustave, Hoyt Farm would still be good with Tucker, Whitley, Alvarez, and lots of pitching depth. One interesting thing about this scenario is it would leave Houston with 6 open 40 man spots so they could claim any player that had remaining options available (a la Tolliver last year) to restock the upper levels. That 25 man roster above would project for something ridiculous like 55 fWAR.
Alternatively: Astros get: C Salvador Perez RP Kelvin Herrera RP Scott Alexander RP Brandon Maurer OF Alex Gordon Royals get: SP Francis Martes OF Derek Fisher SP David Paulino RP Michael Feliz SP Hector Perez C Max Stassi Same deal here, Houston fills all of its “holes” without giving up Tucker/Whitley, in this case by taking on Gordon’s contract. KC sheds Gordon and continues their rebuild with 3 Top 100 types, another Mlb ready high ceiling reliever, a lower level high upside prospect, and a big league ready catcher to replace Perez. Gordon is owed $44M and was replacement level last year so there’s a lot of negative value there; essentially it’s take Alexander, Herrera, and Maurer just to offset him. So the prospects going back to KC are pretty much just for Perez plus a little extra to get it over the line.
Pitchers get hurt. Very doubtful any of the pitchers with MLB experience and options get traded as Astros need them, and rebuilding teams will likely want more club control years.
No one's going to know today whether the core is unaffordable, because neither side knows what they will be offering or asking for. Lots of things can change in 3-5 years, both personally and professionally for the athletes, and also financially for the organization. They aren't going to preemptively plan for a rebuild in 3-5 years just in case they can't keep the core. They especially won't do that by trading the key players they would rebuild around. Given their insistence this past season of NOT trading the guys you mention, it's highly unlikely that their evaluations of them are that they won't be very good.