I'm guessing this year will be weird for trades as Yankees and Dodgers will try to stay under luxury tax. Yankees have a little room left. Astros probably won't need much. Thinking this will be a buyers market, and we will see a lot of crazy trades (similar to Cole trade that seller took quantity instead of quality) or not a lot of trades.
Archer is one of the more dominant pitchers first two times through the order as his ERA matches his FIP. His problem is the Rays leave him in a 3rd time through the order when his command wavers and his FIP/ERA jumps into the 5-6 range. He would be amazing in playoffs with a manager with a quick hook.
Kelvin Herrera (KCR) and Cory Gearrin (SFG) are two righty relievers with decent career track records who might be available at the deadline. Herrera's got a lot of playoff experience and has been especially hard to hit in the early going this year. If the Astros feel the bullpen needs an extra proven MLB arm or two, those guys might get consideration and probably wouldn't cost a whole lot.
To not have to pay Cabrera. That said, I think Astros are hunting bigger fish regarding position players (if at all) and relievers (or starters that would relieve in Houston).
I agree regarding the bullpen. If it's not a potential closer then there's no point. I'd anticipate a DH/LF that just has to be markedly better than Gattis is the only criteria for you them to take interest; don't need a big fish there just an above average bat would be a major improvement.
On reliever, Astros could use a tough lefty. Astros starters will likely close most games in playoffs so any great reliever would do. For DH, markedly better than Gattis is a big fish as there just aren't many good DHs. Plus, Alvarez may be better than Gattis by end of season.
I'd imagine they have a whole cycle of players in the minors (White, Davis, Reed, Tucker) that they'd at least cycle through one more time before going the trade route. Financial mess starts this year with having to replace Keuchel and Morton and then just accelerates through the next several years, so no need to spend if you can find in-house solutions. Especially when we're talking about the 8 or 9 hitters on one of the best offenses in baseball. I also don't get why they wouldn't put Gattis at catcher for a game or two to see if they can spark his offense, given his past C / DH splits. As is, they are just wasting a roster spot on a bad, full-time DH.
He's traded some power and Ks for walks. He's doing about 20% worse than would be expected, though in a different way than normal for him. More likely random variation and bad luck than needing a spark. His quality of contact (launch angle, exit velocity) suggests 2/3s of "struggles" is him hitting it at defenders. Granted, he's not a great hitter so when he's not on it looks much worse.
Side comment but I wouldn’t entirely be surprised to see Charlie Morton take a below market deal to finish his career with the only team he’s ever had success (and comfort) with.
Year in, and year out, he has wide splits between his stats when playing Catcher and then playing DH. Right now, his stats look a lot like they did when he was a DH last year (0.580 OPS) vs when he was a Catcher (0.878 OPS). Same as the years before that. In the field the last 4 years (C or LF), he's had OPSes of 0.878, 0.992, and 0.843 (he didn't play the field in 2015). His DH OPS's during that time frame vary from the upper 500's to the low 700's. He seems to be consistently a functional hitter in the field, and a below-replacement-level one as DH. I don't know if it's mental or random variation or what, but we're well beyond the small sample size point and it seems like the team is consistently putting him in the one spot where he never succeeds. They really should either ditch him or try him somewhere else at this point.
I'm thinking a rental for the Gattis replacement that way there are no financial ramifications. Basically you've got 3 months to decide if an internal option is at least an above average hitter at DH. If not then trade for the rental and try again next year.
I was thinking this very thing. I’m not sure money would be the deciding factor for CM. Morton loves being a part of this team and I think his happiness plays the biggest role on whether he resigns in Houston.
Agree with that - I was more looking at some of the previous suggestions of going for Cabrera or bigger fish. Agree - I'm just thinking he retires after this year. He's been through a lot of injuries and rehab processes through his years. If he can stay healthy this year, maybe win another WS or at least compete on a good team, and then call it a day, that's pretty good. I'd hate to blow my arm out again at 35 or 36 yrs old and have to go through another intensive rehab knowing you probably won't pitch much longer anyways. Obviously, if he is one of the best pitchers in baseball this year, that may change things too.
For reliever, a lefty is our #1 need by far. Go for Hand, it will be costly, but should be worth it. Center the trade around Nova, we really don't need him as both Correa and Bregman are blocking him.
Yeah, people change their minds all the time, but.... He and Cole are good buddies going back to Morton's days with the Pirates, maybe him and Verlander being here next year changes his mind. Also, Morton is rapidly becoming one of my all-time favorite Stros.
Morton should never have to buy a beer again in this town. I bet another team offers him 13-15 mil over 3 years and he will be gone. I hope I'm wrong. They should go with what they have in the bullpen and when the playoffs roll around I want Morton to close games.
Verlander, Cole, and Keuchel as the playoff starters with McCullers, Morton, and Peacock as the playoff finishers sounds pretty badass to me. Especially since Devenski, McHugh, and all the other arms would be available for any low leverage situations.
Hoping Seattle falls out of the playoff race and makes Nelson Cruz available. If not then i’d like the Astros to go after him in free agency to fill our DH needs only if he accepts a Carlos Beltran 1 year type deal.
