Hopefully the US deaths will be less than the 2017-2018 flu season death totals of 61k. That may be the best case scenario at this point which is still terrible.
Congrats! Happy for you and the family. Can I ask how long it took you to get results? How was the process of getting tested?
Great news! only trying to help: still be careful and watchful. There are “false negatives” with these tests. but absent symptoms, you are prob good to go!
What's the consensus on Germany's numbers? They are really low from widespread testing. But a criticism I've read is that they're not classifying many other respiratory deaths as coronavirus.
I’ll live with a false negative. My wife’s symptoms are not specific but worrisome because of exposure and mine are more likely not COVID.
I forgot about Germany. They are now testing more per K than SK. At this point, US is still well behind. Italy has actually caught up to SK. Germany is way ahead. Much earlier (the earlier you can test massively, the better your chance to contain), SK ramp up very quickly and consistently. US was very slow and still ramp up slowly at this time. Italy was slow, but faster than US. Germany didn't start as fast as SK, but has now accelerated past them. p.s. this is only about testing... i haven't looked at death ps2 Just checked current case fatality rate: Germany: 1.8% (was at one point 0.2%) SK: 1.9%: US: 3.2% China: 4% Italy: 12.3% World: 5.8%
US isn't that far behind anymore - it's ramped up a lot. At the current pace of about 150k tests per day, US testing levels in 1 week would be around where South Korea is today on a per-capita basis.
My wife firmly believe my two year old had it. His test was negative but they weren't sure they weren't in far enough. The to of us had minor cold symptoms but nothing more.
I’m telling you my commentary based off the numbers I see right now. Back then I was VERY critical of the Trump admin to my friends and family. Don’t know if I was here as well but I think I was
Light at the end of the tunnel means that we are seeing deaths continue to rise but the curve is flattening and deaths per day should start declining within week or so. Transitioning to a new way of life and is another task. We had a big jump yesterday and I saw it might have been due to counting for all the weekend deaths in one day from states outside of NY. The trend of growth rate of deaths from the 4 day rolling average is still clearly down. The deaths are also consistently coming in below estimates. I think we are trending below 70k now and possibly closer to 50k in this wave. Also we have already had states in the US that have peaked. Lastly, testing has continued to increase and the US is the leader in absolute numbers tested. We will hopefully surpass Germany in per capita testing within 2 weeks based on the rate of increase in testing.
And just after I said China lied I’m posting this lol. These numbers are at least more recent as of April 1. https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375 Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate A total of 130 of 166 new infections (78%) identified in the 24 hours to the afternoon of Wednesday 1 April were asymptomatic, said China’s National Health Commission. And most of the 36 cases in which patients showed symptoms involved arrivals from overseas, down from 48 the previous day, the commission said. China is rigorously testing arrivals from overseas for fear of importing a fresh outbreak of covid-19. Tom Jefferson, an epidemiologist and honorary research fellow at the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said the findings were “very, very important.” He told The BMJ, “The sample is small, and more data will become available. Also, it’s not clear exactly how these cases were identified. But let’s just say they are generalisable. And even if they are 10% out, then this suggests the virus is everywhere. If—and I stress, if—the results are representative, then we have to ask, ‘What the hell are we locking down for?’” Jefferson said that it was quite likely that the virus had been circulating for longer than generally believed and that large swathes of the population had already been exposed.
That's about right. Here is a really nice link to compare all kind of stats between the country. If I'm reading that right, US is currently at 5.8 test per K while SK is at 9.1. SK was at 5.8 3 weeks ago. US has almost a 50% increase in per cap test in 1 week. My very quick rough est said it's going to take another 2 weeks for the US to catch-up, if they both keep going at the same rate of increase. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#our-database-on-covid-19-testing-data
Well, who knows how many of those 80% asymptomatic folks get symptoms soon. It's all so dynamic, dammit!
166 is a small sample. In 24 hrs of what? We know that symptoms show up ~ 2-14 days later. They have to watch that population for 14 days. Quite flaw if they take a "snapshot". A larger collection of data (from Germany i think) indicate about 3% infected have zero symptoms (from memory so might be wrong) (there is a study that asymp period might be responsible for up to 80% of the spread and thus the important of identify them EARLY)
My initial light out of the tunnel is transition to containment (based on experts and data). NYC (so likely elsewhere in NY) was not counting death at home while ackn most of them are probable for Covid19 (Y2Y increase of 1700 death for the two wk period of 3/20-4/5 for example). I'm not even sure what number to look at anymore to gauge "peak". Maybe hospitalization.
