The Math On Webber

This out of the Sacramento Bee...

Commentary: Webber's wooing begins -- As he faces the biggest decision of his career, will the opportunity to win a championship be the determining factor?
By Martin McNeal
Bee Staff Writer
(Published July 1, 2001)

No, I don't know where Chris Webber wants to go as a free agent, a process that begins today, but I have some educated guesses.
That's what I'm left to work with because Webber didn't return one of the 20 or so calls I made since the day after the Kings' season ended in a second-round playoff sweep to the eventual NBA champion Los Angeles Lakers.

Then again, everybody in the league has guesses, though most are uneducated. Never have so many words been wasted over the past year as those attempting to predict the future of the 28-year-old All-NBA performer.

Many thought they knew, but really they had no clue.

Webber didn't know then which team he wanted to play for and may not know now.

If you're Webber and you've waited this long to decide, why not see what other teams have to offer and then choose? The calls and faxes from other teams likely began at 9:01 p.m. Saturday (or 12:01 a.m. on the free-agent Eastern time zone clock).

The reality of Webber's situation is that his future begins when he decides whether to return to the Kings and then lets the team know. So we'll likely see over the next few weeks whether Webber merely was selling noise when he said the opportunity to win will be the key factor in his decision.

If he chooses not to re-sign with the Kings and still earn the maximum amount that he can, Webber will have to tell Kings president Geoff Petrie. Then work could begin on a sign-and-trade deal that potentially could become a convoluted multi-team transaction.

Petrie says he's waiting for Webber and his group of representatives -- which include his aunt, Charlene Johnson, his brother, Jeff, and marketing representative Shawn Bryant -- to tell him about the power forward's plans. It is believed he has not signed a new agent since dropping Detroit-based Fallasha Erwin last fall.

Petrie and team co-owners Joe and Gavin Maloof expect Webber to explore his options and assess proposals from other teams as part of the process that cannot officially end until July 18, when teams can sign free agents as well as make sign-and-trade deals.

Whether Webber wants to travel to cities that are courting him is unknown.

Houston and Detroit likely will explore Webber's desire to join their teams. They will not, however, want to be used by the star to procure a sign-and-trade deal with another squad. The Rockets and Pistons face their own free-agency matters and will want to settle those as soon as possible.

Orlando and Indiana have combinations of players, coaches and organizations that are attractive to Webber. The Magic has Tracy McGrady and Grant Hill, who are stars in their own right, and a coach in Doc Rivers who is highly respected by most of the league's players.

The Pacers have former Michigan Fab Five teammate and longtime Detroit home boy Jalen Rose and coach Isiah Thomas, whom Webber admires.

New York is a huge market and has a winning tradition. The Knicks also have Latrell Sprewell, with whom Webber would love to play again. They were teammates on the Golden State Warriors in 1993-94, Webber's rookie season.

The Kings, though, remain in the mix, despite the predictions of many so-called experts, who have had Webber's luggage packed and at the airport since the day he got to Sacramento to begin the 1998-99 lockout-shortened season.

Although Webber says he loves Jason Williams, that doesn't mean he was enthralled with the prospect of playing with the point guard, who did not work hard enough to maximize his talents.

Mike Bibby, acquired last week in a trade for Williams, is a defensive improvement, though he's hardly a Gary Payton, whom Webber would have loved to see in Sacramento. Bibby is more polished offensively than Williams, which Webber appreciates.

Payton, who will turn 33 on July 23, also would have had no problem coming to Sacramento (as long as Webber stayed), but that acquisition would have meant trading 24-year-old Peja Stojakovic or 22-year-old Hedo Turkoglu.

Webber is fond of his Kings teammates and respects their talent. There has been concern in the Webber camp about whether the Kings have peaked. That concern, though, should be allayed a bit by the acquisition of Bibby.

Webber could call the Kings, Houston and Detroit, teams that have the financial wherewithal to agree to the long-term multiyear contract he desires, and make a commitment today that would be instantly accepted.

Should he opt to sign with one of those teams, the hardest part of the deal will be counting the money.

He can sign a seven-year deal with the Kings, with the first season beginning at the greater of 105 percent of last season's $12 million yearly salary ($12.6 million) or 30 percent of the still-to-be determined 2001-02 salary cap that is projected to be $42.7 million to $44 million.

If the cap is any higher than that, Webber will look to begin at the 30 percent level, because that will bring in more than $12.6 million. As the organization holding his Larry Bird rights, the Kings are the only team with which Webber can sign a seven-year deal, which would pay him a minimum of $121 million.

Teams have been told to use the $42.7 million figure, of which 30 percent would be $12.8 million.

Should the cap go to $44 million, a seven-year deal would begin with a starting salary of $13.2 million. That salary -- plus a 12 1/2 percent annual raise -- would get Webber to $127 million with the Kings.

If Webber started at $13.2 million on the maximum six-year deal he could sign with another team, he could sign a $97 million deal.

The Rockets are believed to be capable of clearing $12.5 million to start a six-year deal by renouncing the rights to free agents Shandon Anderson, Matt Bullard, Sean Colson, Dan Langhi, Hakeem Olajuwon, Carlos Rogers and Maurice Taylor.

The Pistons have only $28 million committed to salaries next season, so they also have the money under the cap to make a deal work.

The Magic, Pacers and Knicks will need help to get Webber, if he is looking to maximize his earning potential.

And that is why league executives believe it is Petrie, not Webber, who holds the key. And many of those observers, including some from the teams attractive to Webber, believe he will return to the Kings.

Should Webber decide location is more important than money, he retains more control over his destiny.

If he wants to leave Sacramento, Webber can play hardball with Petrie. He can try to convince the Kings he will sign with a team that has cap room. Sacramento then might be moved to work out a sign-and-trade deal with another team that can provide the Kings with reciprocal talent.

Ultimately, though, when all the scenarios are played out and all the negotiations are done, the decision will rest on whether Webber wants to live and play in Sacramento.



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