Statistical Preview: Rockets vs Warriors

justtxyank · May 18, 2015

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HANG TIME NEW JERSEY — The Houston Rockets are seemingly facing long odds in the Western Conference finals. Their opponent — the Golden State Warriors — was the league’s best team in the regular season by a wide margin, has home-court advantage and a 43-3 record at home, and swept the season series.

But the Rockets faced long odds in the conference semifinals, as well. And they became the ninth team in NBA history to come back from a 3-1 deficit to win a series, coming back from 19 points down late in the third quarter of Game 6 along the way.

This is a matchup between the MVP and the guy who finished second. Both averaged between 25 and 26 points in those four regular-season meetings, but Stephen Curry did so much more efficiently than James Harden.

With a healthy Dwight Howard, Harden will have more help than he did earlier in the season. Still, the Warriors look to have a good shot of reaching The Finals for the first time in 40 years.

Here are some statistical notes to get you ready for the Western Conference finals, with links to let you dive in and explore more.

Pace = Possessions per 48 minutes
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

Golden State Warriors (67-15)

Beat New Orleans in four games.
Beat Memphis in six games.
Pace: 94.3 (14)
OffRtg: 107.4 (2)
DefRtg: 98.8 (5)
NetRtg: +8.6 (2)

Their effective field goal percentage of 53.1 percent is the highest of the postseason.

So is their turnover rate of 16.0 per 100 possessions.

36.6 percent of their shots have come from 3-point range, the highest rate in the playoffs.

Best 3-point defense of the playoffs, holding opponents to 29.4 percent from beyond the arc.

Have set just 41.6 ball screens per game, the fewest in the playoffs, according to SportVU.

53-0 (6-0 in the playoffs) when leading by at least 15 points at any point in a game.

Have outscored their opponents by 16.8 points per 100 possessions with Draymond Green on the floor, and have been outscored by 18.6 with him on the bench. That differential of 35.4 points per 100 possessions is, by far, the biggest on-off-court NetRtg differential of any player that has played at least 200 playoff minutes.

Curry has made 11 more 3-pointers than anyone else in the postseason.

Houston Rockets (56-26)

Beat Dallas in five games.
Beat L.A. Clippers in seven games.
Pace: 104.8 (1)
OffRtg: 105.9 (6)
DefRtg: 106.8 (12)
NetRtg: -0.9 (8)

Rockets playoff notes:

Have been outscored 1,338-1,337, making them the first team to reach the conference finals with a negative point differential since the playoffs expanded to 16 teams in 1984.

At 4-0, the only undefeated playoff team in games that were within five points in the last five minutes.

Have played the two fastest paced series of the playoffs so far.

All four of the remaining teams have been great in the first quarter (NetRtg of plus-11.8 or better), but the Rockets have been the best, outscoring their opponents by 17.3 points per 100 possessions.

Have scored 1.12 points per possession on ball screens, the best mark in the playoffs, according to SportVU.

Howard has been the best rebounder of the playoffs, grabbing 21.9 percent of available boards. He leads the postseason with 45 putback points.

The matchup

Season series: Warriors won 4-0
Pace: 104.5
GSW OffRtg: 109.6 (2nd vs. HOU)
HOU OffRtg: 95.8 (22nd vs. GSW)

Matchup notes:

All four meetings took place in November, December and January. Howard only played in the two January meetings, before his knee procedure. The Rockets’ current starting lineup (with Josh Smith and Jason Terry) didn’t play in any of the four meetings.

The Warriors were the only team to beat the Rockets four times in the regular season. Only one other team (San Antonio) beat them more than twice.

The total point differential (61 points) was the largest between two teams that finished with winning records.

No team shot better against the Rockets than the Warriors, who had an effective field goal percentage of 55.3 percent.

The Warriors’ offensive rebounding percentage of 29.0 percent was their highest against any Western Conference opponent.

The five Rockets who attempted at least nine 3-pointers shot them at a combined 25 percent.

The Rockets threw more passes over the four games (1,243-1,220), but the Warriors recorded more than twice as many secondary assists (30-13), according to SportVU.

A greater percentage of the Rockets’ jump shots were uncontested (72 percent vs. 69 percent for Golden State), but the Warriors shot better on both uncontested (41 percent vs. 32 percent) and contested (34 percent vs. 20 percent) jumpers.

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LabMouse · May 18, 2015

But current rocket team is much different from that time.

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Statistical Preview: Rockets vs Warriors

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