Kevin Love's Future.

bilaal14 · Feb 13, 2014

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10443018/nba-kevin-love-stay-minnesota

Can someone thats an "insider" plz post this? Thank you so much. Will rep.

J Sizzle · Feb 13, 2014

Imagine you are Kevin Love.

You are 25 years old, just entering your basketball prime. You are averaging 25.7 points, 13.3 rebounds and 3.9 assists while making 36 percent of your 3s. You have the third-highest PER in the NBA, behind some guys named Kevin Durant and LeBron James. You are playing the best ball of your career and some of the best ball we've seen in the past decade.

You have never played with an All-Star in your six seasons in Minnesota. You inexplicably came off the bench for two seasons. Your front office, led by former general manager David Kahn, did not feel you were worth a five-year, $80 million maximum contract, despite averaging 24.9 points and 13.9 rebounds at the time of negotiations in January 2012. So you signed a four-year deal to stay, despite being an Olympian, the league's leading rebounder and an All-Star all before turning 23.

You have been forced to play next to marquee acquisitions such as Darko Milicic and Michael Beasley. The team has been awarded four top-six picks in the draft since you came into the league and they selected Ricky Rubio, Jonny Flynn, Wesley Johnson and Derrick Williams. Only Rubio hasn't been a colossal disappointment and even then, it took him two years to arrive. Given a papier-mâché support system, you have never been able to make it to the playoffs.

Now, in your sixth season, the ship is sinking again.

Your team is 24-28, six games back in the loss column behind the Dallas Mavericks for the eighth seed in a loaded Western Conference. Kevin Martin, signed to be your star wingman, just broke his thumb and could be out a month, maybe more. Nikola Pekovic has been out for two weeks with ankle bursitis. Rubio, the guy whom Kahn presumably saved the max extension for instead of you, is currently shooting 36 percent from the floor. And Gorgui Dieng and Shabazz Muhammad, new president Flip Saunders' first two draft picks since taking over for Kahn this past summer, have yet to show they can play in the NBA.

Love has never played with an All-Star. What could he produce if he did?
If management incompetence wasn't enough, you haven't seen above-freezing temperatures in your city in weeks. On Jan. 27, the high was negative-six in Minneapolis. The high.

Apparently, even Mother Nature wants you to be miserable at your job.

So what do you do? Do you march up to Saunders' office, knock on the door and say "enough's enough"? After all, your team has just 20 percent odds of making the playoffs and that might be generous considering that the injuries are piling up. You can be a free agent at the end of next season, but you can force your way out as it's perceived (though not confirmed) Deron Williams did in Utah. Do you make it clear you want out?

This is perhaps the most fascinating subplot around the NBA as we head into the All-Star Weekend and the trade deadline in eight days. The Timberwolves could make their star available and reset the franchise much like the Jazz did just ahead of the 2011 trade deadline. Williams was in a similar position to Love in 2010-11, with another season left on his contract.

But Love should wait this one out.

Given their point differential, which is seventh best in the West, the Timberwolves are playing like a 32-20 team, not one that sits four games under .500. The results should come.

The difference is that they've played horribly down the stretch in key moments. According to nba.com data, the Timberwolves have played 18 contests in which the game was within three points in the final minute. Here's the score over that time: Opponents 68, Timberwolves 15.

That's in 14 minutes of action. Yes, they've been outscored by 53 points during that span. Eighteen games within reach and just two wins to show for it. They are an unthinkable 2-16 in those these mega-clutch games.

Time and time again, the Timberwolves have been kicked in the stomach down the stretch. Enormously deflating and heart-wrenching, yes. But is it sustainable?

History says no. The minus-53 point differential in final-minute-game-within-three scenarios is the worst we've seen pre-All-Star break since the NBA started tracking it in 1997. Only the Sacramento Kings in 2008-09 and the Houston Rockets in 2010-11 have seen a differential worse than negative-40 in such situations.

I decided to look at the 10 worst teams in mega-clutch situations before the All-Star break since 1997 and see how they did after the All-Star break. Remember, these are the chokiest teams in recent memory, combining for a ghastly 58-154 (.274) record in these close games. So how'd they do in the second half of the season in mega-clutch situations?

Same personnel, vastly different results.

If their poor clutch performance reflected something inherently flawed about the team's makeup and not mostly plain ol' randomness, we'd expect them to choke all season long, right? But they actually did much better, winning 47 percent of these mega-clutch games the rest of the way (52-58). Just four of the 10 teams posted a negative point differential post All-Star break. Again, these squads were practically throwing games for the first half of the season. But the rest of the way, they were outscored by just 14 points overall and five teams posted winning records in these mega-clutch games.

So Love can feel heartened that these things typically regress toward the mean over the course of the rest of the season and the late-game futility generally doesn't last. The Timberwolves should be better going forward. And if they don't show it this season, he shouldn't feel doomed next season.

As the losses mount, so does Love's frustration.
The Timberwolves are eight games worse than their Pythagorean record (a formula developed by Bill James and appropriated for basketball by Daryl Morey that estimates what a team's record should be given how much it scores and allows) and they're on pace to finish 12 games off, which would break the NBA record of 10 games set by the 1985-86 Seattle SuperSonics and 1958-59 Syracuse Nationals.

I looked at the 14 teams in NBA history who fell at least eight games short of their Pythagorean record. How did they do the following season? Well, Love might not like this, but nine of the 14 fell short of their record again and only three outperformed their point differential. Two teams hit it right on the money.

We're dealing with small sample sizes here, but it's telling that if we look at in-season results, extremely chokey teams typically right the ship in late-game situations after the break. But unfortunately for teams hoping for luck to swing the other direction in the following season, their dreams haven't exactly been realized.

In the end, Love can't be happy about his current situation. But if history provides a guide, there's no indication that the unclutch performances that have riddled the Timberwolves' season is something that will plague them all season long. Love could rock the NBA world by demanding an escape ahead of the trade deadline, but the more sensible plan is to tough out the cold winter and revisit this offseason. Sunnier days are on the horizon.
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Here ya go

Aleron · Feb 13, 2014

History says no. The minus-53 point differential in final-minute-game-within-three scenarios is the worst we've seen pre-All-Star break since the NBA started tracking it in 1997. Only the Sacramento Kings in 2008-09 and the Houston Rockets in 2010-11 have seen a differential worse than negative-40 in such situations.
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Kevin Martin was on all 3 teams....I'm sure it's just a coincidence...right? right?!?!?

tehG l i d e · Feb 13, 2014

Aleron said: ↑

Kevin Martin was on all 3 teams....I'm sure it's just a coincidence...right? right?!?!?
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all Adelman-coached teams as well. this duo is pretty damn unclutch.

Aleron · Feb 13, 2014

tehG l i d e said: ↑

all Adelman-coached teams as well. this duo is pretty damn unclutch.
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nah, rick was coaching us in 08/9

tehG l i d e · Feb 13, 2014

Aleron said: ↑

nah, rick was coaching us in 08/9
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also in 2010/11

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/HOU/2011.html

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Kevin Love's Future.

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