[Foxsports]10 things to watch in NBA's second half

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10 things to watch in NBA's second half
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Mike Kahn / Special to FOXSports.com


As the NBA heads into its post-All-Star break stretch run, all eyes, ears and mouths have been directed at that 20-year-old youngster playing on the shores of Lake Erie, LeBron James.

And rightfully so, considering James has the opportunity to join the club of Oscar Robertson, John Havlicek and Larry Bird as the only players to average at least 25 points, seven rebounds and seven assists in the same season.
But along with the gaudy numbers, rejuvenating a moribund franchise and $100 million worth of endorsement deals, must come victories for James and the Cavaliers, who are indeed 11 games ahead of last year's pace. King James and the Cavs are just one of the elements to watch closely as the rest of the season unfolds.

1. Item: James isn't the only youngster making his mark quickly in a league that had become desperate for change.

What it really means: James, Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade and Amare Stoudemire dubbed themselves "The Young Gunners" on last summer's Olympic team. Actually, they had little ammunition.

Nonetheless, the brash and gifted youngsters do represent a transformation of sorts in the NBA. Excluding Stoudemire, who was the 2002-03 rookie of the year, the real focus may end up being on that 2003-04 rookie class, led by James, the ROY. Little used Darko Milicic notwithstanding (the youngest who is struggling for minutes with the defending champion Pistons), consider the impact of James, Anthony, Wade, Chris Bosh, Kirk Hinrich, Luke Ridnour, Josh Howard and Kyle Korver are having on playoff contenders. And there are plenty of others like Dahntay Jones, Jarvis Hayes, Nick Collison, Chris Kaman, Leandro Barbosa, Brian Cook, Willie Green, Sasha Pavlovic, Mo Williams and Luke Walton who show plenty of promise. Another five years down the road and this class should rank among the best we've ever seen.

2. Item: There wasn't another moment of All-Star weekend that better crystallized the impact the Phoenix Suns have had on this basketball season than during the dunk contest. Stoudemire bounced the ball high off the backboard and Steve Nash then used a soccer-header to set up Stoudemire for his ensuing dunk.

What it really means: The fun is back in the NBA this season and Nash's free-agent move to the Suns has been the catalyst. The question is how long the 31-year-old Nash can sustain this pace. It's why the Dallas Mavericks let him go.

Although he has missed only three games, there have been issues with his quad, hamstring and back. It's been captivating to see how Stoudemire, Quentin Richardson, Shawn Marion and Joe Johnsosn have benefited from Nash running the show. The recent additions by Bryan Colangelo of Jim Jackson and Walter McCarty will help too. But the level of success coach Mike D'Antoni has as we head into the playoff drive is directly proportional to Nash's health and stamina. As of today, he is the 2005 most valuable player. Come April, will he be healthy enough to lead the Suns into Western Conference finals?

3. Item: The Detroit Pistons looked like they were suffering a massive hangover from winning the 2004 NBA title, exacerbated by the infamous Malice at the Palace. They struggled to stay over .500 the first two months of the season, but are now opening space between themselves and the field in the Central Division ... primed to make a run at the Heat for the top seed in the East.

What it really means: Since they lost to Chicago on Dec. 22, the Pistons are 20-7. The external buzz about Larry Brown coaching elsewhere next season won't stop, but they are still all business. The acquisition of Carlos Arroyo gave them much needed depth in the backcourt, Antonio McDyess is playing his best ball in four years and the starting lineup is focused, healthy and back to defending as well as any other team over the past five seasons.

They may not catch the Heat for the top seed, but remember — they hammered the Shaquille O'Neal-led Los Angeles Lakers in the finals last year. So it's not as if they will be intimidated by the Diesel and the Heat when crunch time comes. If nothing else, this sets the stage for a great matchup in the conference finals.

4. Item: With the coaching jobs of the New York Knicks, Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves virtually wide open in the off-season — and presumably the Portland Trail Blazers as well — the names of Brown, Phil Jackson and recently deposed Timberwolves coach Flip Saunders keep bouncing about with the erratic flight of a rock concert beach ball.

What it really means: Even if Brown stays with the Pistons, which seems unlikely, Jackson and Saunders are open for business. Jackson, in particular, has been basking in all the attention, with the Knicks, Lakers, Blazers and Timberwolves the most likely suitors for his attention. Most people believe Blazers owner Paul Allen will offer Jackson the moon, his stock in Microsoft and his favorite Jimi Hendrix Stratocaster guitar; but there's no way he'll give up the Stratocaster. And despite Jackson's history with the Knicks, he does love the Pacific Northwest.

Saunders very likely could be the guy Isiah Thomas targets for the Knicks because of Saunders' offensive mind and relationship with Knicks point guard Stephon Marbury, who spent the first 2 ½ seasons of his career with Saunders. That would send Brown to the Lakers, and the Pistons might be looking at uber-assistant Mike Brown from the Pacers in those two franchises' continuing coach swaps, or Cheeks, or possibly Michigan State coach Tom Izzo. And all of this presumes Don Nelson won't decide to retire from the Mavericks and that Nate McMillan doesn't opt to bolt Seattle — a slim chance.

5. Item: You have to wonder about the future of a team expected to compete for the title that has languished around .500 with no significant injuries. That would be the Minnesota Timberwolves, 27-27 at the All-Star break, 2-1 since general manager Kevin McHale replaced Saunders as coach.

What it really means: You also have to wonder if McHale's future with the club is tied to its success in the second half of the season, despite having just, well, three games experience as a head coach entering this week.

Considering it required seven consecutive first-round exits before McHale pieced together a group around Kevin Garnett that reach the conference finals, it's painfully obvious now it was a short-term solution. It's ironic that Garnett, last year's MVP after actually taking a pay cut in his extension to leave money for the moves, could end up in the middle of another re-building project. Latrell Sprewell's attitude has been poisonous and his contract is up, while Sam Cassell has one more year left, and his body hasn't stopped breaking down since the second half of last season.

Yes, Jason Kidd's name keeps flickering in connection with the T-Wolves. Ditto for Gary Payton. But age and a questionable knee make Kidd's huge contract a gamble and Payton will be 37 in July. But McHale will have to do something quickly, or that will be owner Glen Taylor banging on his door with questions and Garnett impatiently lying in wait for the answers.

6. Item: The Indiana Pacers have twisted and turned, soared and plummeted in this mystifying season for the franchise. In the wake of the suspensions from the Nov. 19 brawl, Jermaine O'Neal came back like the star he is, Stephen Jackson is still trying to get his feet on the ground, and Ron Artest is out for the regular season ... but probably not the playoffs. Meanwhile, Reggie Miller announced he's retiring after the season, Jonathan Bender remains an injury-prone frustration and hot young point guard Jamaal Tinsley is having trouble staying healthy as well.

What it really means: This is the ultimate test for young Rick Carlisle, already considered one of the top head coaches in the game in just his fourth season. The good news is he and his wife Donna have a baby girl not yet 10 months old to add perspective. And yet this team, so deftly constructed by CEO Donnie Walsh and now manned by Larry Bird, is in such an odd position heading into the Feb. 24 trade deadline.

Because the season has been so bizarre, it's not the time to do anything major. Besides, they're still in the playoff race right now. They are interested in a veteran point guard like Gary Payton to support Tinsley, which essentially would be a rental with Payton on the last year of his contract. But Celtics president Danny Ainge probably wants too much from his old teammate, Bird, who won't be swindled. For all intents and purposes, the Pacers are better off playing the hand they've got and seeing if they can gain momentum. Should they make the playoffs, get Artest back and everybody else is healthy, don't think for a moment the Heat would be happy meeting those guys in the first round.

7. Item: Rockets entered the break as the hottest team in the Western Conference, having won eight in a row and suddenly within one game of the fifth spot and four games of fourth.

What it really means: Finally, after tweaking the roster, getting Bobby Sura and David Wesley into the rotation, and allowing Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming to get accustomed to each other's faces, the Rockets are nearing where everybody expected them to be entering the season. All the hand wringing about coach Jeff Van Gundy's style and that he was a bad fit for the team was garbage. Van Gundy remains one of the best defensive coaches in the game and a superb tactician offensively. Ditto for Yao being vastly overrated and McGrady being a loser.

Despite lacking a true power forward or point guard, this team is quietly becoming a dangerous contender and is eminently capable of beating any team in a playoff series. While they may lack the overall talent and depth to seriously compete for the title, they could play a significant role in who does.

8. Item: The Chicago Bulls find themselves holding down the seventh seed and just three games behind the fourth-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers, having played .700 ball (21-9) following a dreadful 5-14 start.

What it really means: Led by the young trio of Hinrich, Luol Deng and Ben Gordon, general manager John Paxson appears to have straightened out the roster for coach Scott Skiles. The ruminations of Eddy Curry's unhappiness continue to ring true, and if that is the case, then they should finally concede and trade the overachiever. The thing is, Tyson Chandler's shot-blocking and rebounding ability make him a better fit for big minutes anyway — provided his back issues area resolved. And while Chandler is very limited offensively, he's very much like a bigger and stronger Marcus Camby.

So with the rest of its talent, the defensive focus and whatever decent addition they can get for Curry, this is group is ready to make its first playoff appearance and get its feet wet enough to become a factor in years to come.

9. Item: The new rule that prohibits a defender from using hands on the perimeter has all but cemented the improvement in the game that the competition committee sought two years ago by changing the 10-second line to eight seconds and virtually legalizing zone defenses.

What it really means: All of the above encourage ball movement, slashing to the basket and the usage of players with better overall skills. Consequently, the games feature much better offensive play in a league that had become dominated by defense. And that translates into a more aesthetically pleasing game. Through the All-Star break, scoring is up from 93.4 to 96.7 per team, with seven teams averaging at least 100 points a game compared to just two last year. And last season, 13 teams averaged less than 92 points a game, while this season there are only four. Shooting percentages are up from .439 to .447, which is the highest it has been in five years.

The inclination is to say these are only mid-season numbers and they may change, but it's more than that. With the aforementioned "Young Gunners" and the steadily increasing impact of exceptionally talented international players like Yao, Dirk Nowitzki and Manu Ginobili, the game is finally starting to look like it did in the 1980s and early 1990s. And that is a good thing. A very good thing.

10. Item: Of course, the one looming loophole in all these warm and fuzzy feelings is the impending conclusion of the existing Collective Bargaining Agreement at the end of June. All the goodwill that is back in place would evaporate should there be another work stoppage.

What it really means: No way commissioner David Stern and Billy Hunter, the executive director of the players association, would have been as upbeat as they obviously were at a press conference in Denver during All-Star weekend. A deal is not complete, but compared to where they were seven years ago, they are attached at the hip and plan continuous meetings next month.

The primary obstacle is the maximum length of contracts, which the players want to keep at seven years and the owners want sliced to four. It is quite reasonable to compromise with five and all bets are that is where it will land.

The other issue is the league wants to impose a 20-year-old age limit as opposed to the present rule based on when a player's high school class graduates. The owners will not win that one, but what may very well happen is the legitimization of the NBA's developmental league, which swells to 10 teams next year. It now appears the players association will go along with allowing players to have NBA contracts and be moved back to the NBDL, with teams retaining the right to recall a player. In effect, finally, the NBA will have a real minor league farm system. Of course, neither may happen, but here's guessing there will be a new Collective Bargaining Agreement by the time the finals tip off the first week of June.

Veteran NBA writer Mike Kahn will be providing his "10 things we learned in the NBA this week" every week through the rest of the NBA's regular season.