[ESPN] Hollinger's Player Reports

It looks like Hollinger has completed the player reports (recap of past season, scouting report, outlook, and stat projections), though ESPN hasn't put up a link on the front page yet. The stat projections are what ESPN likes to advertise, but I think the commentary is far more interesting. I'll post that here.

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Rafer Alston


2006-07 season: Alston got a lot of undue credit because he was the starting point guard on a winning team, but he was clearly the team's weak link. That became increasingly obvious as the first-round series with Utah wore on and he misfired on one open look after another. Alston shot 33.8 percent for the series, and his inability to cash in on clean looks from outside gave the Jazz free reign to send extra defenders at Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming.

It's not that Alston was terrible ... he's just a backup point guard thrust into a 37-minute-per-night starting role. He even did OK spotting up on 3s during the season, hitting 36.3 percent from downtown while taking more than half his shots from out there.

But it was another story inside the arc, where Alston nearly pulled off a unique feat. First, he had the worst shooting percentage in basketball on long 2-pointers, making only 30.3 percent (see chart). Second, he narrowly missed having the worst percentage in the immediate basket area, hitting just 45.4 percent. Usually players can make either close shots or far shots; otherwise they wouldn't be in the NBA. Last season, Alston struggled in both departments.


Worst pct. on long 2-pointers, 2006-07
Player Team FG%
Rafer Alston Hou 30.3
Luther Head Hou 30.4
Damien Wilkins Sea 30.8
Bobby Jackson NOK 31.6
Jason Richardson GS 31.6
Source: NBA.com/hotzones. Min. 100 attempts


Alston did a decent job running the point, posting a low turnover ratio and a solid true shooting percentage. But on a team like the Rockets, with two guys doing a bulk of the shot-creating, it's far more important to have players who can knock down shots from outside. Alston was a failure in that capacity again -- it was his second season with a sub-50 TS% and the third time in four years that his shooting percentage began with a "37."

Scouting report: A streaky outside shooter, Alston can be effective when the long ball is dropping. He shoots 35.8 percent from downtown for his career, but he is far less effective once he steps inside the arc. He's a solid ballhandler, though, and a decent penetrator who can set up shots for others with his drives.

Defensively, Alston has his ups and downs. While coach Jeff Van Gundy got a lot out of him last season, his lack of size tends to be an issue against bigger guards, and he's not exactly ironclad in terms of cutting off penetration. Alston's best asset may be his endurance. The Rockets routinely left him in until partway through the second quarter, and did the same in the second half; this never appeared to bother him.

2007-08 outlook: Did anyone else get the impression the Rockets weren't happy with Alston last season? In rapid succession, Houston traded for Mike James, drafted Aaron Brooks and signed Steve Francis, effectively relegating Alston to the far reaches of the depth chart. And just in case the Rockets had any lingering doubts over that strategy, Alston got himself arrested twice in a three-week span over the summer.

At this point, everyone is just waiting for the other shoe to drop in the form of a trade. However, Alston, 31, is owed $15 million over the next three seasons and his days as a starter are probably finished, which makes dealing him a bit problematic. Meanwhile, the Rockets have 17 guaranteed contracts and can keep only 15. Alston can still be a useful backup on the right team, so it will be unfortunate if he has to languish at the end of the Rockets' bench all season.


Shane Battier

2006-07 season: Brought in to add a defensive presence, Battier was a major success on that front and earned widespread credit for it. So I'll focus on the other important aspect of his season -- namely, what the heck happened to his offense?

The hope was that Battier could provide some semblance of a third scorer for Houston behind Yao and McGrady, but he simply failed. He averaged a meager 11.1 points per 40 minutes and seemed content to lob in 3-pointers from the corner and do little else. Only 28.3 percent of his shots came in the immediate basket area, a very low number for a 6-9 forward and a steep drop from his numbers the previous two seasons in Memphis (49.0 percent and 51.1 percent).

Meanwhile, well over half his shots were 3-point attempts -- the third-highest rate among small forwards. Battier at least made the most of his 3-point tries, hitting 42.1 percent, and that helped him to the fourth-best true shooting percentage at his position.

The problem was that he was so gun-shy he ended up with the third-lowest usage rate at his position -- this on a team that was fairly screaming from the hilltops for scoring help. Every time he passed up a shot he was essentially saying, "Here, Rafer, you take it." I imagine Houston would much rather see Battier lining it up.

Scouting report: OK, now that I've deconstructed his offense, let's get back to that defense, because it's pretty impressive. Battier was the Rockets' primary defensive stopper, and despite often giving up a quickness advantage to smaller guards he did very well in that role.

In addition, he managed to be a great team defender, especially when rotating off the ball for blocks and charges -- Battier ranked ninth in the NBA in offensive fouls drawn, according to 82games.com, and was 16th among small forwards in his rate of blocked shots. Overall, he's an even better team defender than he is one-on-one. The only place to nitpick is that his rebound rate declined from his marks in Memphis.

I nominated Battier for first-team All-Defense when I ranked defensive players at season's end, and I was surprised to see that he was left off the team entirely. Two of the wing players voted ahead of him, Raja Bell and Tayshaun Prince, are fine defenders, but I'm dubious that they had anywhere near the impact Battier had. The Rockets ranked third overall in defensive efficiency, narrowly missing out on the top spot, and Battier was unquestionably the best defender of the bunch, so it seems a little odd that he was left out in the voting.

2007-08 outlook: Battier opens the season as the starting small forward, and with the additions of players like Luis Scola, Steve Francis and Mike James, his reluctance to shoot won't be quite as glaring. Nonetheless, I'm sure the Rockets would like to see him get more aggressive this season.

Otherwise, he offers little room for complaint. In fact, he's the perfect glue guy on a winning team, because he plays great defense, makes the open jumper and never takes a bad shot or makes a stink in the locker room. The Rockets just need to hope last season's PER plunge was a one-year blip and not the new normal.

Aaron Brooks

2007-08 outlook: The Rockets' first-round pick definitely has NBA quickness, but he was a surprise as a first-round pick due to his shoot-first instincts and lack of size. Brooks is a little reminiscent of Earl Boykins in that he's fast, he's a decent shooter and he looks to pass second. But Brooks is bigger at 6-0, 165 pounds. On the other hand, it's not clear he's quite in Boykins' league in terms of speed, and he's going to struggle on defense. Brooks may not play much anyway because the Rockets are heavily staffed at the point.


Jackie Butler

2006-07 season: Butler showed up out of shape after signing with San Antonio and spent most of the season getting back into it. He played 103 garbage-time minutes and did nothing particularly special with the time, failing to match the impressive numbers he'd put up a season earlier as a reserve with the Knicks.

Scouting report: Butler is still one of the more talented young post players in the game. The 22-year-old has a deft touch in the post and is a good rebounder.

However, the rest of his game still needs to come together. San Antonio gave up on him because he couldn't master its defensive system, and because a system focused on funneling drivers toward the big men works a lot better with Tim Duncan back there than with Butler as the stopper. His lack of mobility is likely to be an issue wherever he goes, particularly if he slackens on the conditioning.

Like a lot of young big men, Butler also needs to learn how to screen without fouling -- the source of many of his turnovers the past two seasons.

2007-08 outlook: Butler was traded to Houston over the summer in the Luis Scola deal, something the Spurs might regret if the Rockets are as good as I expect. While Butler didn't live up to my high hopes for him last season, his youth and scoring talent remain big items in his favor.

He has a good chance to be the Rockets' backup center, and in their Yao-based system -- where the center gets the ball on the block and isn't asked to rotate as much defensively -- he should be a much better fit than he was in San Antonio. Butler still has work to do on the nuances of being a pro -- staying in shape, defending, etc. -- but he could prove a revelation off the bench with his post scoring.

Steve Francis

2006-07 season: Francis wrote another bizarre chapter in his increasingly topsy-turvy career. He ditched the Knicks and went to Houston midseason to rehab a knee injury that may or may not have been fictitious or exaggerated, appeared to be near a buyout agreement with the Knicks, and then miraculously surfaced just as it was announced Jamal Crawford had suffered a season-ending stress fracture and there was an open job in the backcourt.

When he played, he continued his pattern of alternating moments of brilliance with self-destruction. Francis had the second-best rate of free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt among shooting guards thanks to his undeniable driving ability. But he was his own worst enemy with the fifth-worst turnover ratio at his position.

He also made head-scratching mental plays, most notably when he was ejected in the fourth quarter of a close game against Detroit, even though the Knicks were in the midst of a playoff race and had only three healthy guards that night.

With all that said ... he really wasn't bad at all. Francis shot much better on 3s as a Knick than he had in the previous few seasons, hitting 35.7 percent after three straight sub-30 percent marks. He got to the line a ton and made 82.9 percent of his free throws, and he had the 16th-best rebound rate among shooting guards despite being one of the shortest players at his position.

Scouting report: Francis is big for a point guard and owns a great first step, but his instincts are as a scorer, not a passer. He's one of the league's most notorious over-dribblers and has seemed to struggle with his loss of alpha dog status the past two seasons -- and with it the ball possession he'd had for most of his career.

Francis isn't a pure shooter but seemed to adjust to spotting up more often with the Knicks, though that 3-point percentage may come down this season. He also makes way too many turnovers, especially if he's going to be a secondary player.

Defensively, Francis took a ton of fouls last season to make up for his height disadvantage. But at the point, his size and rebounding are constants and he's quick enough to keep opposing point guards out of the lane.

2007-08 outlook: Francis was traded to Portland after the season, where the Blazers immediately bought out his deal. That allowed him to rejoin the Rockets, albeit at much lower pay and with a much lesser role than his last time through here. Houston took on little risk, inking him to a one-year deal, and has enough depth at the point to survive if he goes prima donna on them.

While Francis isn't the deep shooter this team would like at the point, he does add another dimension by giving some life to their second unit. Houston can use him to create offense when Tracy McGrady is off the floor (or nursing a bad back), and he may finish more games than he starts as an offensive spark at either guard spot -- similar to the way new coach Rick Adelman used Bobby Jackson in Sacramento.

Chuck Hayes

2006-07 season: Though undersized in the extreme and owning a jumper that makes Dikembe Mutombo's look gorgeous by comparison, Hayes managed to carve out a niche as a pro power forward by virtue of his tough defense and nose for the ball. The 6-foot-6 Hayes battled his way to the eighth-best rebound rate among power forwards and used his fast hands to rank sixth at the position in steals per minute.

Hayes' D was a huge factor -- he could easily have been an All-Defense pick -- but he needs to tone down the aggression a bit. He was disposable and knew it, and for that reason he gave fouls freely. He finished third among all power forwards in fouls per minute, making it impossible for him to play extended minutes.

Hayes rarely shot on offense, ranking 68th out of 70 power forwards in usage rate. However, he converted when he did shoot, making 57.3 percent of his shots. He was disciplined enough to let fly only when he was in layup range.

Scouting report: Hayes was one of the league's best defensive power forwards last season despite his small stature. While that sometimes allowed taller players to shoot right over him, more often it resulted in an opponent running unsuccessful post plays against Hayes because he was able to muscle the guy so far from the basket. Hayes is also an excellent team defender who frequently put himself in position to challenge shots.

Hayes' shot is one weird bird. He has a hitch in it, almost like he's double-pumping, and he does this even on free-throw attempts. It's as though he took shooting lessons from Juwan Howard. At least he knows it -- he only attempted one jumper all season.

2007-08 outlook: Hayes signed a four-year deal worth $8 million (if likely bonuses are achieved) to stay in Houston, allowing the Rockets to keep him at a fairly large discount to the market. I'm a little surprised there wasn't stronger interest. While Hayes can't score in quantity, he makes his few shots, and his defense and rebounding have real value. Teams have been throwing bigger bills at far lesser players this summer.

Hayes will have to take a back seat, however, as newly arrived Luis Scola figures to take over as the starting power forward. But look for Hayes to play a major role off the bench, backing up Scola and likely finishing games when Houston goes up against tough post players.

 

Luther Head

2006-07 season: A shooting guard in a point guard's body, Head earned a spot in the rotation with his deadly 3-point shooting. But his inability to defend shooting guards may not allow him to keep it for long.

First, the good news. Head drilled 44.1 percent of his shots from downtown, including a lethal 48.1 percent from the right side of the floor. He actually shot better on 3s than he did on 2s, which also would explain why more of his shot attempts came from beyond the arc than inside it.

Head, in fact, was the second-worst shooter in the league on long 2s, which is amazing considering how well he shot 3s. His accuracy on the latter shot helped him to the 10th-best true shooting percentage among shooting guards -- it wasn't higher because he rarely got to the line -- and allowed him to post a respectable player efficiency rating despite a largely one-dimensional game.

Scouting report: Head's nickname should be "2 down" -- every time he entered the game the opposing coach would call a play for his shooting guard to post up against him. He's not a good defender off the ball either, but at 6-3, 185 pounds, he was ripe for abuse by bigger guards on the block.

The most glaring instance came in the Golden State game late in the season, when the Warriors literally ran every play for whomever Head was guarding. The abuse was so bad that Van Gundy had to take him out even though he'd scored 16 points in 12 minutes at the other end.

The obvious solution would be to move Head to the point, but he's a poor ballhandler. He also makes bad decisions in transition, often forcing the action when he ought to pull it out, and that accounts for his unusually high turnover ratio for a jump shooter. So the next-best idea is to pair him with a big point guard and cross match, which is why the addition of Steve Francis may help Head quite a bit.

2007-08 outlook: Head could end up the odd man out if Rick Adelman uses a short rotation as he did in Sacramento, because Bonzi Wells looks to soak up a lot of the extra minutes on the wing. If Head can improve his ballhandling, a move to the point might help, although that position looks crowded as well. However, he should be able to fill in for short stretches off the pine, and the aforementioned Francis pickup may make his life easier on D.

Mike James

2006-07 season: Minnesota's big free agent pickup was a major bust, as James was torched repeatedly on defense and rarely finished games. Offensively it was quite a setback too, as James predictably failed to repeat his Fluke Rule season of 2005-06 and had one of the biggest drops in player efficiency rating in the league (see Speedy Claxton comment).

James lost a whopping six points off his 40-minute scoring average, with his 3-point production suffering the most. He took barely half as many triples as he did a season earlier and fell back to a more normal 37.2 percent from downtown after shooting a sizzling 44.2 percent in Toronto the previous season.

His 2-point jumpers weren't any better. James actually shot better on close-in shots than he had in Toronto, but on long 2-pointers he fell all the way from 46.7 percent to 35.3 percent -- and those were over a quarter of his shots. James' assist and turnover numbers weren't much different and his rebound rate was only slightly worse. The big factors here were that he shot the ball less and was massively less accurate.

Scouting report: James' defense was a major problem as well, as quicker guards abused him off the dribble. As a result, he usually found himself on the bench in crunch time last season while Randy Foye handled the point. The Timberwolves gave up 2.5 points more per 48 minutes with James on the court, but that stat doesn't do justice to the carnage. James is 32 and although he was a quality defender in previous seasons, he was never terribly fleet of foot. Thus, this may be a new reality of his game.

Offensively, James is a good outside shooter who is at his best coming off pick-and-rolls and firing away. He's rubbed teammates the wrong way at times with his shoot-first tendencies; that might make him better off playing with the second unit, where he's taking shots away from lesser players. Off the court, James is a free spirit who has become somewhat famous for impromptu stream-of-consciousness monologues in the locker room.

2007-08 outlook: James was traded to Houston after the season, where he played a key role off the bench for the Rockets in 2004-05. His outside shooting should be a big help for a team needing to prevent defenses from keying on Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming, and he's likely to compete with Steve Francis for the starting point guard job and may win it.

As mentioned earlier, though, I like James much better coming off the bench, a role in which he shined for the Rockets three seasons ago. At worst, he should be able to replicate last season's production, because he's unlikely to shoot so badly on long 2-pointers again. If he can improve the defensive effort at the same time, the Rockets could have themselves an energizer for the second unit.

Carl Landry


2007-08 outlook: The first pick of the second round, Landry is an undersized power forward whose best assets are strength and toughness. Though only 6-7, he has a solid 248-pound frame and could end up being a Chuck Hayes clone. Offensively, most folks aren't expecting much, since he's likely to have trouble scoring inside against bigger players and didn't show much of a perimeter game at Purdue. He may spend more time in the D-League than with the Rockets this season.

John Lucas III

2006-07 season: Lucas earned some minutes as the No.3 point guard and made a decent impression, creating shots a good clip while keeping a low Turnover Ratio. However, he still has to prove he can shoot. Lucas's outside shot has been the biggest question mark his whole career, and a 15-for-59 mark last year won't quiet the doubters any.

Scouting report: A little, fast guy who can get to the basket, Lucas's size is obviously an issue at 5-11, 165 pounds, but his defense didn't seem to be a major liability in the few minutes he saw for Houston. He certainly can handle the ball and run an offense, much as his dad did in this same city, but he'll have to shoot over 40 percent to stay in a rotation for long.

2007-08 outlook: Lucas was as surprised as anyone to be on the Rockets' roster entering camp, given that they have four point guards on the depth chart ahead of him. Obviously he's unlikely to stick around here for long, but he's established that he can be a No. 3 point guard and may work his way up the food chain from here.

Tracy McGrady

2006-07 season: McGrady battled alternately with his back and a lack of teammates who could make shots, with the end result being a carbon copy of his first two seasons in Houston: A scoring average in the mid-20s, a low shooting percentage and an insanely high usage rate.

Believe it or not, the guy who was making the most offensive plays last season wasn't Dwyane Wade or LeBron James or Kobe Bryant. It was McGrady, who along with Yao Ming bore an incredible offensive weight because the team was essentially playing two-against-five all season. McGrady's 32.9 usage rate led the league, with Wade the only one who got reasonably close (see chart).



Top Usage Rates, 2006-07
Player Team Rate
Tracy McGrady Hou 32.9
Dwyane Wade Mia 32.7
Kobe Bryant LAL 31.1
Carmelo Anthony Den 30.6
Zach Randolph Por 30.1
* - minimum 500 minutes


This heavy load wasn't necessarily a good thing, as McGrady's true shooting percentage ranked only 50th among shooting guards. He did a great job involving others, though, as his assist ratio ranked 15th at the position, and his turnover ratio was solid, too (18th).

That background puts McGrady's playoff performance into perspective, as he did more of the same -- he took 23 shots a game and averaged nearly seven assists, but made only 39.4 percent from the floor. He was criticized for going four minutes without shooting in the fourth quarter of the seventh game, but in that time he assisted on two buckets, and a spate of offensive boards by the Jazz meant the Rockets had only six total possessions. For the game, Houston scored only nine baskets that McGrady didn't either score or assist on -- a cry for help if I've ever seen one.

Scouting report: McGrady continues to be one of the best midrange jump shooters in the game. At 6-8, he can elevate over defenders going in either direction and has a smooth, accurate stroke.

Last season he made 44.4 percent of his long 2-pointers, an outstanding percentage considering the volume of shots he took from that distance (over eight per game). Of the players who took over 400 shots from that distance last season, only Dirk Nowitzki and Ben Gordon converted a higher percentage. One of McGrady's favorite tricks is to start at the left elbow, dribble right, then spin back to his left and go up with the jumper.

The only concern is just how frequently he's relying on the midrange shot. McGrady took 40.7 percent of his shots from that distance last season; the most of any player with over 1,000 field-goal attempts. In raw terms, only Kobe Bryant had more long 2-point attempts, and that was with McGrady missing 11 games.

Meanwhile, McGrady's 3-point and free-throw marks have slumped. Last season he hit a career-worst 70.7 percent from the line, a shameful mark for such a great shooter. He wasn't much better on 3-pointers, hitting 33.1 percent -- he seems to be more comfortable shooting off the dribble than just catching and shooting on a kickout from a teammate.

McGrady is just an average defender, as most of his energy is spent at the other end of the floor. His health is also an issue, as repeated back problems have cost him chunks of games each of the past two seasons. However, a back specialist he visited last season had him feeling in much better spirits, providing hope that he can make it through this season relatively unscathed.

Yao Ming

2006-07 season: Yao continued his steady improvement by establishing himself as an MVP candidate before a broken leg cost him 34 games. Nonetheless, his numbers for the season were awesome.

Yao averaged 29.1 points per 40 minutes, and did it quite efficiently. He hit 51.6 percent from the floor and, perhaps more importantly, 86.2 percent from the line. His proficiency from the stripe is an underrated weapon, as opponents frequently resorted to fouling him as a means of stopping his lethal post game. Overall, Yao ranked eighth among centers in true shooting percentage and 19th overall -- pretty lofty heights for a guy with the top usage rate at the position.

Despite his immense size, Yao is only an average rebounder. He doesn't move well laterally so he doesn't get to balls out of his zone; the result was the 27th-best rebound rate among centers, which is solid but slightly disappointing.

Yao had a rough playoff series against Utah, shooting only 44.0 percent and averaging nearly five turnovers a game. Worst of all, he had all kinds of trouble staying with Carlos Boozer at the defensive end, a big reason the Jazz were able to win in seven games.

Scouting report: Once Yao catches the ball on the block he's virtually impossible to stop because he's so tall and is such a good short-range shooter. That's particularly true from the right block, where he uses what is basically a standing turnaround jumper -- he catches the ball with his body half turned and just shoots immediately. He also has a step-back jumper that's even more impossible to block than his normal shots. Additionally, he's getting wiser at using trickery such as shot fakes and leaning in to draw fouls, something he never used to do.

Teams dealt with Yao by either double-teaming or fronting; either was preferable to just letting him catch and shoot. The Warriors were particularly effective fronting him in a late-season game, partly because they didn't have to respect Houston's other shooters and could rotate help from the weak side. The offseason additions by the Rockets hopefully will change that.

Doubling was the more common strategy, and Yao needs to get better at dealing with swarming hands. Though he's a willing passer, there are still times he seems befuddled by quicker teams' rotations.

2007-08 outlook: Check out Yao's numbers on a season-by-season basis -- they've gone steadily upward. He figures to keep heading in that direction; in fact, the projections foresee him having the league's top player efficiency ratings this season.

The biggest obstacle for Yao this season isn't performance, it's health: He's missed 59 games over the past two seasons. While much of that seemed to be the result of freakish, isolated mishaps, there's a real concern that all the pounding on his 7-6 frame will take an early toll.

Nonetheless, if you were looking for MVP candidates, this would be a good place to start. The Rockets' roster improvements mean they have a great shot at challenging the Spurs-Mavs-Suns elite that has ruled the West the past few seasons. If Yao's continued ascendance goes along with it, as the projections suggest, there's a real chance we'll have our fourth straight foreign-born MVP winner.

Dikembe Mutombo


2006-07 season: Mutombo was supposed to be pitching short relief for Yao Ming, but when Yao went down he stepped into the starting lineup and didn't skip a beat. If anything, he dialed it up. Mt. Mutombo may have been dormant in terms of scoring -- 7.1 points per 40 minutes for a second straight season -- but exploded on the boards, where he grabbed 15.1 rebounds per 40 minutes and ranked second in the NBA in Rebound Rate.

Mutombo's activity didn't translate it into scoring, as nearly all his offensive boards resulted in immediate kick-outs to the perimeter, but at least he converted his rare shots. Mutombo made 55.6 percent from the floor, and still got up for enough finger-wagging blocks to rank 17th at his position in blocks per minute.

Scouting report: The most amazing thing about Mutombo's season was how well he was moving at age 40. This was apparent not just in his rebound numbers, but also watching him on defense. For instance, in one game against the Lakers he twice raced over to the far side of the court to double-team Kobe Bryant. Most 7-2 guys past the age of 30 can't even make it past the lane in that situation.

His offensive limitations are immediately apparent, as he won't convert unless he's wide open under the basket, but in the past two years he's appeared to acknowledge this and stopped forcing the action. And of course, his defense in the middle remains top-notch, as few players have ever defended the rim better.

2007-08 outlook: Mutombo signed a one-year contract to return with the Rockets and play what is likely his final season. He'll again be Yao's primary backup, although Houston's improved depth means they won't have to lean on him so much if Yao goes out. The regular season is just a dress rehearsal, though -- if the Rockets have their way, his biggest contribution will come in 15-20 minute stints guarding Tim Duncan in early June.

Steve Novak


2006-07 season: Drafted for his shooting prowess, Novak got few chances to show it during his rookie season, playing in only 35 games. He also failed to live up to his rep, going 13-for-39 on 3-pointers. That was pretty much his whole offensive game -- he attempted only 11 2-point shots the whole season.

Scouting report: Novak's shooting numbers in college were simply awesome, and he's a great foul shooter, too. However, he has to show he can be competent enough in other facets of the game for the Rockets to benefit from his sweet touch. He's a huge defensive liability because he doesn't have the strength to battle NBA power forwards nor the quickness to play the wings. He also hasn't shown much off-the-dribble game.

2007-08 outlook: With Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady drawing so much attention, you would think Novak has a great opportunity to feast on open looks from the corner. Alas, he hasn't been able to crack the rotation. The arrival of Luis Scola guarantees he'll have a tough time earning minutes this season, too, other than as a late-game human victory cigar. With Houston's roster crunch, he'll have to have a good training camp just to make the roster.

 

Luis Scola

2007-08 outlook: The Rockets finally liberated Scola from Europe after executing a brilliant trade that got his rights from the Spurs, along with big man Jackie Butler, for cash and Vassilis Spanoulis. Scola has been one of the two or three best players in Europe for the past half decade and should start immediately at power forward for the Rockets. He's more of a midrange shooter than a straight-up post player, but his best skills are the subtle stuff -- passing, moving without the ball and team defense. Born in Argentina, he was the second-best player on that country's gold-medal winning team in the 2004 Olympics.

Kirk Snyder

2006-07 season: Snyder snagged a rotation spot to start the season but broke his wrist on Nov. 20 and was out of the mix by the time he came back. Though he saw some spot duty in the second half of the season, he played only nine minutes in the playoffs. When he did play, his numbers were nearly a carbon copy of the results he'd had for the Hornets a season earlier, with one glaring exception: He lost three points off his 40-minute scoring rate.

Snyder's resume says he's a shooting guard, but his stats are those of a bigger player. Among shooting guards, he had the second-best rate of blocks but the fourth-worst rate of steals, and the eighth-best rebound rate but the fourth-worst free-throw percentage. If not for the assist and 3-point numbers, you'd think he was a 6-10 power forward and not a 6-6 wing player.

Scouting report: Snyder is a bit of a jack of all trades offensively, doing a decent job handling the ball, shooting the 3 just well enough to make defenses respect him (33.7 percent for his career) and drawing a high rate of free throws because of his strength going to the basket. However, he needs to improve from the line (69.1 percent for his career) because much of his offensive game is predicated on getting there.

Defensively, Snyder has the potential to be very good but doesn't always seem to be engaged with the process. However, he's a strong rebounder at either wing spot and his physique makes him difficult to post up against.

2007-08 outlook: Snyder is the one player who has the most to lose with Rick Adelman's arrival, for two reasons. First, Adelman tends to stick with a seven- or eight-man rotation rather than use his whole bench. Second, Adelman's arrival meant Bonzi Wells chose to stay rather than leave. Sum it up and that broken wrist last season starts looking awfully costly, because Snyder is unlikely to play much this season even though he's more than capable of being a decent rotation player.

Bobby Sura

2006-07 season: Sura missed the entire season with a back injury and is expected to retire. However, his contract still has value because it's only partially guaranteed for this season. Thus, some enterprising team looking to get under the luxury tax may trade a fully guaranteed deal, along with a draft pick as a sweetener, to the Rockets for Sura, and then immediately cut him upon arrival. That's the only bit of suspense left in his career at this point.

Bonzi Wells


2006-07 season: The season was a total waste for Wells, who showed up out of shape and dejected after a colossal offseason screwup in which he passed on a $36 million deal to stay with the Kings and ended up taking one-sixth of that amount from Houston. Things quickly degenerated from there, as the coaching staff was unhappy with his conditioning and Wells kept having minor injuries set back his training. He played only 28 games and put up a miserable 8.92 player efficiency rating, the lowlight of which was a nasty 44.6 true shooting percentage.

Scouting report: One of the strongest guards in the league, Wells is nominally a shooting guard but prefers to play around the basket. He's a load on the blocks, where he likes to shoot a high-arcing knuckler on turnarounds; when he's not doing that he's crashing the boards -- his rebound rate ranked first among all guards two seasons ago. He's not a good long-range shooter, however, making 33.3 percent on triples for his career. And he's only a 70.4 percent shooter from the line.

Defensively, Wells has great anticipation that helps him to a very high steals rate. But he's also 31 and has had multiple knee surgeries, so beating him off the dribble isn't much of a challenge for quicker guards. As a result, Wells rarely guards top scorers and instead looks to intercede off the ball.

2007-08 outlook: Rick Adelman's hiring in Houston could really benefit Wells, since Adelman was in charge during Wells' big season in Sacramento in 2004-05. Wells figures to be the first wing player off the bench, with his post game becoming a focal point when Yao Ming checks out. His projection is pessimistic based on last season's disaster, but it doesn't seem unreasonable that he could bounce back and put up a PER in the mid-teens this season -- something he'd done in his eight previous NBA seasons.