BCS out, good news for Texas

http://espn.go.com/abcsports/bcs/rankings_full/index.html

Texas is a solid 3rd in the BCS. Before I was worried that the undeserving Ducks might be ahead of us if they beat OSU while we beat CU, but that doesn't look like that could happen (UT has over a 2.0 BCS advantage).

The interesting case for the "other" UT. They are 3.1 behind us. Say they beat Florida and LSU/Auburn while we beat CU. In this exchange Tenn probably gains 1.5 or so via changes in bonus QW points. They would also figure to gain .5 in the basic (AP/CNN) polls. That leaves them needing to make up 1.5 points via the computer and schedule scores combined, which is quite possible, but perhaps not guaranted.

If both UTs and Miami win out, just like last year, 1 team with an awefully good case will be left out.

Only the sure fire scenario for the Horns is for a Miami lose to Vtech or SEC South team to win that Championship game. It look like it will be wet in Blacksburgh W/TH and getting colder by friday. That is not too bad a forcast for the Horns. The best situation is a cold, wet and windy day that kills passing and turns the Miami boys into patsies (all I am asking is a pretty typical miserable kind of December day in Blacksburgh).

 

Right now the Buffs are #7 in the BCS, thus we get a .9 point bonus (actually -.9 is how it works). If we beat them again they will surely fall, say to to like #13--where we only get a .3 bonus for beating them. Unfortunately we don't multiple .3 by 2 (we would have beaten them twice) to get .6, instead we only get the strait .3. Come to think about it, it still would not be fair with a multiplier with the current formula because even with a multiplier of 2x the value would be less (.6) than if we never had to play them that 2nd game in the first place (.9). Thus it is clear their are various problems with the current QW bonus. Perhaps they need it for say the top 25 teams (where 1 loss doesn't shift around the bonus points so much among the top teams), and include double points for beating that team twice.

However, while beating CU twice hurts us in the QW department, it surely helps in the schedule strenth and computer polls (probably no effect on the other polls). For instance our schedule will probably go from 46th to at least 38th, that is a -.32 (good) adjustment relative to last week.

Incentely, I am figuring if Tenn wins out they will probably go from 16th to like 4th in schedule, a gain of .48 in the BCS.

So if the Horns and Vols win out: the Vols probably gain around .16 in schedule, gain .5 in the base polls, and 1.5 in QW. That means if they only gain 1.0 in the computer ranking, the Horns are in trouble. While I have no clue how the computer rankings are going to take on the impact of a CU win by the Horns and a Florida & Aub/LSU win by Tenn, it looks to me like it very easy could favor the Vols by 1.0 or more and the Vols overtake the current difference between the teams.

To sum it up again, let's go Fight'n Gobblers!!