Perception says you are right. The talking heads on places like ESPN would certainly say Pittsburgh and KC are better "baseball towns" than Houston. But the facts would say different. I don't have the time nor the inclination to put the numbers together, but I would bet good money that in the past two decades the Astros draw more in "competitive situations" than either Pittsburgh or KC. Of course you don't have many competitive times for Pitt or KC, but the fact is the city of Houston will support baseball when it is good. It's also not all about "baseball fans" anymore. Many old time baseball fans like ourselves might get pissed and not come back for a while, but if the team is winning it becomes "cool"...heck, when MMP was filled up in the early/mid 2000's it wasn't because all the "baseball" fans were fighting for tickets, it was because it was the "thing to do" . . .and a large majority of those people won't care about 2009-2014 if the team starts kickin butt again As long as the overall economy in Houston is good, and it is, then a winning team will draw
Not that 13 games means much in Baseball, but the Astros .385 winning percentage so far extrapolates to a 62-100 season total. Right on par with many predictions.
Springer and Singleton will be here eventually, and Harrell will be out of the rotation eventually. The Astros are clearly not putting their best team on the field at the moment with the likes of Presley and Krauss playing everyday. Seriously, this team gave away 2 games thanks to Harrell.
The Astros team BABIP right how is .220, that is such an extreme deviation from the norm there is no way the Astros aren't in for a hot streak offensively at some point. Dating back to 1994, only one team has posted a team BABIP of less than .271, and that was .269. I don't care how bad your offense is, you team BABIP is gonna at least get into the .270's. By comparison our team averages over the last 4 years was .304, .288, .308, and .285. Eventually something is gonna give and this team is gonna hit a lot to even things out.
Yes, the BABIP will get better... but I don't get the overwhelming feeling that these hitters have been simply "unlucky". They've just been bad, and a lot of them will get better (although some of them are just bad/awful hitters).
Even bad awful hitters don't post BABIP's that low. Brad Ausmus's career worst was .254. Mario Mendoza, the gold standard for offensive ineptitude had a career .251 BABIP. Roy freaking Oswalt had a career .210 BABIP. Regardless of whether or not you feel they have been unlucky, fact is that they have been unlucky.
Agreed... just saying that the BABIP being low doesn't automatically mean this team will allofasudden become a murderers' row. Right now, we're seeing very few hits other than HR's. We may see more infield singles, bloops, mis-plays, etc.... and the BABIP will go up... but the overall runs scored could stay the same.
BABIP going up, but not scoring more runs would be very unlucky. Astros batters just need one extra flare a week - just one - a gorp... you get a groundball, you get a groundball with eyes... you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week...
"Okay. People who run ball clubs, they think in terms of buying players. Your goal shouldn't be to buy players, your goal should be to buy wins. And in order to buy wins, you need to buy runs. You're trying to replace Johnny Damon. The Boston Red Sox see Johnny Damon and they see a star who's worth seven and half million dollars a year. When I see Johnny Damon, what I see is... is... an imperfect understanding of where runs come from. The guy's got a great glove. He's a decent leadoff hitter. He can steal bases. But is he worth the seven and half million dollars a year that the Boston Red Sox are paying him? No. No. Baseball thinking is medieval. They are asking all the wrong questions. And if I say it to anybody, I'm-I'm ostracized. I'm-I'm-I'm a leper. So that's why I'm-I'm cagey about this with you. That's why I... I respect you, Mr. Beane, and if you want full disclosure, I think it's a good thing that you got Damon off your payroll. I think it opens up all kinds of interesting possibilities."
I see this quote runs very well with Luhnow even though he has been more focused on buying runs for the future. 50% of minor leaguers are going to fail and even less than that are going to reach close to their ceiling. What I am seeing is the Astros getting lots of guys cheaply with low ceilings, but that still project as MLB players (e.g. Torreyes, Fontana, Kemp, Tucker). These guys have the potential to add wins on the bottom half of the 25 man roster in the future. Hoes, Fowler, and Feldman appear to be legit guys for their cost. I just hope Luhnow can get or has the top end players to carry the team. While the Astros can handle a lot of the non-top 10 prospects not meeting expectations and still have a good bench, Astros probably can't handle too many busts in their ten without having to shell out a lot of money for replacements. My view on Luhnow is very similar to how I viewed Morey a couple of seasons ago. I had no doubt that he could acquire good value players to fill out the roster, but I still had my doubts he could get the stars to anchor a team.
If you can't get excited about these prospects and the future of this ballclub because you're busy playing Mr. Cynical, I feel sorry for you. Of course it's a crapshoot...it is for everyone else, too. But in the midst of that, we're positioned really well. Enjoy it...have fun...our ballpark is amazing....there's young talent to be optimistic about...it's the mother falcon Astros with blue and orange and a big ass star with a big ass H over it.
Its a bit like watching your kid grow up. Your optimistic about him becoming something some day. You know that their mistakes during childhood will be outgrown (hopefully). But at the same time, you cant help getting frustrated at times when mistakes are repeated at an age they should know better. I am optimistic about the Astros future. Some of that future is starting to trickle its way to the majors. But in the meantime, there is plenty of room to improve and along with that are many aspects of their play, for now, that will illicit frustration and cynicism.
I'm excited... but I also would be lying if I said I could withstand a run of mediocrity that the Royals are in now, or one the Pirates just went through. Hell, I don't think I could have withstood the Rays 10 year run of failure fresh off being an expansion team... despite the better results that have come since. Then again... I do still watch the Rockets... and if you factor in the increased number of playoff teams along with the amount of teams that have won multiple playoff series since the Rockets last attempted title run (while the Rockets have only won 1 since 1997), I guess I can deal with an extended run of "failure".
I know I'm not going anywhere. I'm hoping they win one World Series before I die. Whether they do or don't, this is where I am. This is my team. It's deeper than my team because it connects back to part of my family that isn't here anymore. Can't wait to place World Champ pennants on their grave when it happens..the day after it happens. It's going to happen.
Well, this is about the start I expected. The Astros didn't do squat in the offseason to address the offense. I guess we got Fowler, who always was pretty crappy away from Coors Field, so I'm not sure why we would have expected otherwise. I mean we're trotting Marc Krauss, Villar, Chris Carter and Alex Pressley out there everyday. Sorry, those guys aren't MLB quality. Maybe Villar develops into something down the road, but the others are AAAA quality players.
