Looking Forward to the Last 32 Games

First of all, Lin and a #2 for Lowry, next Brewer, D-Mo and a future #1 for Waiters. Our backcourt, outside of Harden and Beverly is weak!

Lin is playing well right now but against better competition is true colors will show....trade him!!!

By making those moves, you definitely upgrade the back court in a major way.

 

Take your trading ideas to the trade thread boys, that's why we have a trade thread.

Back to OP: I only hope for kicking Miami's butt in march, if we can win those two games in March then I'm happy for the rest of the regular season

 

Over the summer, I couldn't wait for camp to start.

Once camp started, I couldn't wait for the season to start

Now....I'm feeling kind of odd....50 games already played

Don't want season to end

It's all coming together

 

great thought out thread

as for potential deals out there -- i have a hard time believing that anyone in the starting lineup will be traded. They are all getting healthy right now and are 6-2 since Bev's return -- both of the losses to the Grizzlies -- they could have easily been 7-1 since Bev's return.

Lin has shown signs of his aggressiveness off the bench which is critical to get that second unit going but if a deal is made I would imagine that it would primarily be either DMo, Asik or Lin to be moved to bring back a more consistent scorer off the bench and/or a defensive big guy.

Of course if Asik has his head on right and realizes that he is going to remain on the team until the end of his contract and decides to let his play do the talking then there is one of the biggest holes in this team filled.

Right now Lin, Garcia and Casspi are looked to as the bench scorers -- all are capable of putting up 6-10 points a game but they just are not consistent about it. Brooks could be that spark plug but due to his size finding him consistent minutes will be tough - though I would like to see a Lin/Brooks backcourt in small stretches to see how they would perform on defense.

I think San Antonio's rodeo trip came at a bad time this year with the injuries to the team - I still think they'll win more games than lose on the trip but the Rockets do have a very favorable 4 game stretch coming up starting tonight where I expect them to win all 4 games and should hopefully be able to make up at least 1-2 games if not more on the spurs.

Portland should come down - I was hoping they would drop that game against the Knicks but hopefully they will wear down tonight in Minnesota after last night's OT game.

But the Rockets close the month out with a tough 5 game west coast road trip and play the clippers on the second night of a b2b and 3 game in 4 nights so the really have to be on their toes and make sure they dont go on even a 2 game losing streak at any point this month and certainly cannot lose the games they 'should' win

 

great psst, good thoughts.

agree that Jones is very valuable to the team because of his performance and contract. I want to add that trading for Millsap may not benefit the team because we must attach Lin or Asik with Jones, and losing either Lin or Asik is going to hurt the rockets. also, after his current contract, Jones is guaranteed to stay if the rockets want ., but Millsap can walk in another year.

 

the current roster seems very close to the roster we will see in the playoff.

the only changes I can see are, given the priority of the team
1. sg/sf - eg dunleavy for dmo and brewer
2. pg - Lowry for Lin, Greg Smith, and maybe a pick
3. C/PF - eg. Varejao for Asik
4. Camby as insurance

1 upgrades 3 pt shooting and maybe defense
2 upgrades 3 point shooting, defense, veteran leadership. reduces turnovers
3. potentially. upgrades the fit with Dwight, and pick and row offense while staying strong on d
4. replacement for asik in case we need

 

happy to see Tjones playing well against the PFs, but how was his defense against them? If I recall (correct me if wrong) - the PFs scored on Tjones as well.

 

My question about Lin is this: How effective can he be vs. top playoff opponents? He struggled against Miami and OKC in the past (on the other hand, he has done well vs. the Spurs). Can he do better or should we face these team in a playoff series? Can the team put him in a better position to succeed?

 

Rondo for Lin and Asik is a bad trade.

 

21-11

 

With asik or a big setting screens YES, with casspi, dmo, garcia standing around watching on the 3 point line, we may see a bad Lin.

 

You should also be questioning how effective Harden will be - he struggled mightily against Pacers and OKC seems to have his # this year. Both Harden and Lin have played well against OKC in the past - they can do it again, but they both need to know not to hold the ball/iso - top teams game plan is to shut them both down - gotta move the ball quicker against those teams. Drive and kick, swing the ball until there's an open shot - lather rinse repeat.

 

Looking at the rest of the schedule I really think we can catch the spurs! It will come down to the last month of the season but they got maybe the hardest April schedule and they are an old/veteran team. We also hold the tie breaker so it should be fun to watch! I think we can finish 55-27 and I think that will be enough to do it... It starts tonight though! We must beat the teams we are suppose to beat! What happens with Omer and the trade deadline is crucial to any and all success!

 

Considering the strength of remaining schedule, home/away games and Eastern teams remaining plus possible key players addiction or out for the season for the WC contending teams, I am predicting the following changes in the remaining season:

1) The Blazers, Clippers, Suns and Mavericks will continue their slip down in standing.
2) The Grizzlies will catch up on the Mavs and gain 8th seed.
3) The Rockets will advance to as high as #3 in the WC standing

The best way for the Rockets to pass the first two rounds of the playoffs and reach the WC finals would be 1) avoiding meeting the Thunder, Clippers and the Grizzlies in the first two rounds, plus 2) getting home court advantage for the first round.

We have a much better chance of winning a 7-games series in the first two round against the Spurs, Blazers, Warriors, Suns, and Mavericks than against the Thunder, Clippers and Grizzlies.

With a little wishful thinking, I am also predicting the seeding at the end of the regular season as follows:
OKC
SAS
LAC
HOU (depending on Spurs or Clippers gaining the second seed)
POR
GSW
PHX
MEM*
DAL

This will also be the path of the least effort based on the following probabilities:

1) The best and easiest way to gain HCA is to win the next game against the Blazers on 3/9. We already have a 2-1 series advantage so far.

2) I am predicting that the Blazers will continue their slip to likely 4th or 5th seed. Or even a slight possibility of 6th depending on how well the Warriors perform in their remaining games, and they will have an easier schedule than the Blazers' with 5 more games remaining against Eastern teams.

3) We will likely end the regular season at either 4th or 5th, allowing a few slipped games.

4) There is a slimmer chance that we could catch up on the Spurs though it's possible depending on their performance in the last two weeks of the season and injuries. If that happens we would likely end up at the 3rd or the 4th seed. Margin of error will be very tight. And we will need Asik's full effort and McHale's correct lineup and substitution to achieve this.

The easiest path to the finals would be:
1) Get to the 4th or the 5th seed depending which team (Spurs or Clippers) will likely get the 2nd seed
2) Play the Blazers in the first round, assuming they would be either 4th or 5th
3) Play the Spurs in the second round

I am definitely against any talk of tanking. At this stage of the season, we should do our best to stay between #2 and #5 in the standing. My predictions above is based on the current roster we have and no change before deadline this month, and Asik returning to play with a right mentality.

Most important games to gain home court advantage would be: 1) 3/9 Blazers 2) 2/26 Clippers 3) 3/29 Clippers*

 

You can question Harden's effectiveness but he is here to stay for the foreseeable future while Lin is a piece that can either stay or be traded.

Realistically, Morey is not moving Harden (and Howard) before February 20, while the rest of the roster at least have a realistic chance to be traded. There isn't a decision to be made about Harden soon. There may be one about Lin.

 

How would we play spurs in second round if we are 4 or 5? We would face OKC is that was the case. This exact reason is why we want the 2 or 3 seed. To get this we need to pass the spurs in our division. Way easier said then done but very possible.

 

The Rockets can either lose all the chemistry they worked so hard to develop or look in another direction while having to redevelop that. I think Morey is kicking himself in the head over that Courtney Lee / Brand Bass for Asik deal that Boston offered. He dropped that idea all for the glimpse hope of getting a Lebron in 2015... But Lee not only is a fast learner but quickly adjusts as can be seen with what he's doing in Memphis.. Bass would be a dead weight, though useful, offers really nothing over Jones, or Monty at his best.

 

Is Courtney Lee the kind of difference maker that elevates the Rockets above OKC?

Is there not another "Courtney Lee" out there on the market?