Morey wanted Gogi, not Lin

Gigi would fit in well with our current squad. Better so than Lin IMO.

 

Le$ love$ him $ome Lin.

 

Leh-Bron

 

LOL, sound like some character from an anime...

 

Mo told the story about Lex calling him asking how Lin got away, so it wouldn't surprise me if that was the case. At the same time, got to cheer for Lin. He can strive under Mctalky and he is a little younger than the Goran.

 

To much suppose.
Rockets should have keep Dragic. It was a big mistake. Lee, Scola and Lowry too
Bringing Asik was great (I believe it was space for making him the same offer) so:

Lowry/dragic
martin/lee/lamb
parsons/morris/white
scola/patterson/jones
asik/ Dmo

In 2 or 3 years our team maybe with high picks will be better than this, but now the waiting will be very long

 

Lin has star power.... the amount of publicity and marketing he already brings to the club puts him ahead of dragic and lowry

 

The dude claims Dragic will be an all-star this year on a pretty ordinary looking Suns team, kinda lost me there. Would start the season well behind Paul, Westbrook, Parker, Lawson and then the media love of an LA Nash.

 

Actually, I disagree with your analysis.

We knew Lowry was gone (incompatibilities with McHale).

They DID try to negotiate with Dragic, but weren't willing to give Dragic a player option. This is very much in line with the Rockets' philosophy of not tying themselves down for a long period on mid level players. During that process it was reported that the offer to Lin was similar to Dragic's offer... 5/5.3/9.3/9.4 or $30M over 4 years ($7.25M/year), but a TEAM option.

It was only after the Dragic negotiation broke down and they realized that they would have a near ZERO chance of retaining Lin that they upped the offer to 3 years, $25M.

This makes perfect sense. Initially when they were negotiating for Dragic, there was multiple PG's still up for grabs. This gave the Rockets negotiating leverage in terms of finding an adequate PG.

By the time Dragic was gone, there were no decent starting PG's left on the market.

So, if you're the owner you're faced with the following prospect... NO decent PG's, a team full of picks and rookies, no big names to sell tickets, and no real support players to attract a FA like Dwight, with the possibility that you don't acquire Dwight at all and have an all rookie team (recipe for empty arena's).

For the Rockets, upping their offer from $30M/4 years to $25M/3 years works out to a $1M/year cap increase, but maximizes the possibility of acquiring Lin, solidifies the PG position, increases their market profile (making the team more attractive to FA's), AND puts seats in the Arena if they do NOT succeed in acquiring Dwight.

This is a classic example of big picture thinking.

Alexander is an owner and businessman and looks at the team in Holistic terms. Morey is an analytics guy and looks at the team in Production terms (doesn't consider seats, marketing, or intangibles like brand profile).

This is something very common in the business world. Owners will often conflict with management as management tends to see decisions in purely operational terms. In other words, how much does X produce on the ground that you can directly attribute to them.

So, let's say you're Morey... you look at Lin's numbers. You know there are multiple PG's in play but you also know you need to negotiate with Dragic. You know that Lowry is gone. Dragic doesn't pan out, so you start negotiating with Lin and offer what you statistically feel comfortable with... $7.25M/year over 4 years. If you don't get him, that's okay... there are still other PG's on the market, right?

Between your negotiations with Lin and the FA period, all the remaining decent PG's get snapped up... now you have a problem. You're facing the possibility of trying to entice Dwight, but don't have a PG in place, AND you don't have any names to play beside him. And if you don't get Dwight, now you really are dead in the water.

So, now you're Morey and you're sitting with Alexander and lay out the situation. Alexander asks Morey's thoughts... Morey says Lin has skill and upside but there's uncertainty in how good he'll be because it was a small sample size (25 games as a starter).

Alexander asks, what would they have to do to get Lin. Morey replies, probably increase the offer.

Alexander pulls out a piece of paper, works out the numbers and realizes that changing the offer to 3 years/$25M effectively only increases the payment to Lin by $1m/year in terms of cap space and overall financial impact. In his mind, he's overpaying Lin a maximum of $1M a year, but dramatically increases the chances of retaining Lin... given the Knicks' public position, it's highly doubtful they would meaningfully increase their chances of retaining Lin by taking a nickel and dime approach.

Increasing the offer to 5/5/$12M or $13M would most likely have been matched. Even offering the $15M in year 3 had a good chance of being matched (Lin was told that the Rockets STILL felt there was an 85-90% chance the Knicks would match at $15M in year 3).

Morey is probably not comfortable with paying that much (he's looking at it purely from a production basis), however for Alexander it's an easy decision. +-$1M is a negligible impact on cap space with ZERO luxury tax implications. Lin easily offsets the salary differential through his marketing value, brand recognition value, and his value in terms of attracting additional FA's.

In other words, management is very comfortable paying $7.25M/year, but not so comfortable paying $8.3M/year.

Alexander looks at overpaying $1M vs NOT having a PG and empty Arena's as the far LESSER of the two evils. And he foresees the possibility of making MORE money and revitalizing the franchise should Lin have a decent year or better. And if Lin struggles somewhat, they have lots of time to work on his game as he's a young player.

While there are questions in the air about how consistent Lin will be in his performances, there is little doubt that Lin has the Potential to have 20+ scoring or 10+ assist on any given night.

Even if Lin were to be shown to be inconsistent PG in the long run, an inconsistent PG that can occassionally score 20+ points, or put up 10+ assists still has value in the League even if it's off the bench. A Top flight backup PG would still command $5M+. Even Jordan Farmar and Ramon Sessions command $4m and $5m per year. The downside is actually not as far down as people think.

And if Lin develops into an all-star talent... he becomes a HUGE bargain at $8.3M.

Looked at from a risk/reward point of view, it makes perfect sense for Alexander to be willing to push harder than operations in terms of acquiring Lin.

 

Yeah, and I want Sharon Stone... So....

 

Rockets wanted Goran first but was not willing to pay him what they would pay Lin. So we got Lin. Non story. No need for all the butthurts and new thread.

 

Saying Chris Broussard "confirmed" something is the equivalent of claiming Bill Ingram "confirmed" something. In actuality, it's closer to confirming the opposite.

It's been proven time and time again that Broussard is an absolute clown. He has zero contacts within NBA front offices. In fact, most laugh at him. The only reason why he has his job is his willingness to completely sell his soul to players/agents, who use him as they see fit. The Knicks (and Carmelo) are run by CAA, which has an agenda to completely devalue Jeremy Lin from a basketball standpoint and justify the moves the Knicks made. Thus, hit pieces like this come out.

Just ignore them, and they'll eventually go away. If Chris f'n Broussard has an unnamed source, I can personally guarantee you it's from someone in the agent community. From there, think about what their motivations are. Worthless.

 

Fans don't care about publicity and marketing. We don't really get anything out of that.

 

I love your analysis and your tone. Have you consider to be professional writer?

 

And this is why this season is going to be so interesting and fun. So many questions to be answered.

 

Yes and No.

Ask yourself this question? Why do FA's prefer to go to Big Market teams? Why do Big Market teams have the advantage in attracting talent?

While there are multiple reasons, here are a few...

1) More fans. Big market teams have large population bases, and thus large fan bases. A player that generates large buzz disproportionately increases fan base.

2) More sponsorship/endorsement money. Big cities have large companies already in place. Most players go to where those companies are... popular players BRING those sponsors WITH them.

3) More media coverage. Alot of NBA stars have Ego's. They just don't want to be good/great, they want people to SEE it. So, they go to the media centers... LA, NY, etc. Popular players however can BRING that media WITH them. Just look at the first Lin press conference... that's more media than most teams get during the playoffs.

So, if Lin maintains a decent game most of the media attention will remain. This makes Houston a more attractive place for FA's, which improves the chances of landing Star Players during FA or even getting on the short list of destinations during trade talks with players.

As for Fan benefits, there are a few...

For example, not getting blank stares when you talk about your players. There's few things worse than being a fan of a team that people consider irrelevant. It's not fun being the ONLY guy who's wearing that team jersey, or being the ONLY guy that can name people on the roster. Or being the guy that wants to watch the game while everyone else wants to watch Idol or The Voice.

One thing that Lin did in NY is he made basketball RELEVANT again. I know guys who are life long Knicks fans, that suddenly could watch the games with their Families. Parents and Grandparents who had lost interest in basketball were suddenly watching again, and sharing the games with them.

Basketball became a family affair. Lin is a Family friendly basketball star. A humble, hard working, Christian, Harvard educated basketball player that had to overcome hardship, discrimination and being overlooked... even parents who weren't crazy about sports wanted their children to watch Lin play. A walking, talking, real life Rudy... except unlike Rudy he's still playing.

So yes, there are benefits from the publicity and marketing. And if Lin continues to develop, not only with the Rockets benefit, but so will the fans, and the Houston economy.

Heck, did you know they are currently selling "Jeremy Lin Tours" in Asia? Flights to Houston... rooms, tickets, tours of the city, etc?

Jeremy Lin is potentially good for everyone. The Team, Fans, and City.

 

False.

It was Morey's idea to up the offer to Lin and add the huge final year.

And he was never going to give Dragic a player option.

 

I knew all along that Les was the problem.

 

Actually the Rockets would have paid Dragic what they paid Lin. What the Rockets would not do is give Goran a 4th year. Lin only got a 3 year deal and the Rockets were only offering Dragic a 3 year deal where the Suns gave him a 4th.

 

Les is not the problem. Morey and Les wanted Gogi for 3 years. For some reason (I suspect the CBA or perhaps the free agent class), they are targeting 3 years only and wouldn't come off it. Once Gogi was gone, the next best option on the table was Lin.

Gogi probably won't make the All-Star team because of the names ahead of him. But I expect his stat line and level of play to exceed at least one of the starting guards in the All-Star game.